【正文】 etition from lowcost suppliers in developing countries has put considerable pressure on established exporters of textiles and apparel, particularly those in the newly industrialized countries (NIC) of Asia (Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan). The AsianNIC share of the global textile and apparel market halved, falling from 24 to 12 percent between 1992 and 2020. In contrast, the market share of developingcountry suppliers, excluding the Asian NICs, increased 15 percentage points to 64 percent during this period. China was especially successful, raising its share of the global market to 25 percent in 2020, up 4 percentage points from 1992. Such petitive pressures from lowcost, developingcountry suppliers are likely to accelerate following the elimination of MFA quotas by 2020. Textile and apparel trade is strongly influenced by established works and geographical proximity. Together, Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe dominate the EU market because of preferential trading agreements and the economics of geographical location. In contrast, the most important suppliers to the United States are Latin America, China, and the Asian NICs. With improved market access from the ATC, lowine Asian producers are likely to vie more effectively with these traditional suppliers for foreign market shares in the . and EU markets. Ⅲ — 5 The UR reforms are expected to reduce prices for textiles and apparel, increasing worldwide demand for products throughout the fibertoclothing supply chain. Demand for textile and apparel imports is already rising rapidly among the industrialized countries (IC). This demand is particularly strong among importers using MFA quotas (Canada, EU, Norway, and the United States). As consumer prices fall due to ATC reforms, imports of clothing, bed linen, carpets, and other products are likely to continue to increase. Envisioned shifts in supply and demand for textile and apparel will enhance labor productivity in the developing countries, leading to ine growth and greater global demand for agricultural Ⅲ — 6 products, including food and raw fibers, such as cotton. Ⅲ — 7 不斷變化的世界紡織品服裝貿(mào)易格局 托馬斯 麥克通納德 美國(guó) 托馬斯 烏拉圭回合提議將紡織品和服裝產(chǎn)品的關(guān)稅降低到與這些生產(chǎn)國(guó)的關(guān)稅比較接近的水平。譬如，紡織品和服裝貿(mào)易在過(guò)去的十年中幾乎翻了一倍達(dá)到 3340 億美元。 紡織品和服裝貿(mào)易的全球格局已經(jīng)發(fā)生了重大的變化，同時(shí)在過(guò)去的十年間許多低收入國(guó)家從更大的貿(mào)易銷售中獲利。 Ⅲ — 8 不斷變化的全球紡織品和服裝出口國(guó)格局 Ⅲ — 9 來(lái)自發(fā)展中國(guó)家低成本供給的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)已經(jīng)給原有的紡織品和服裝的出口國(guó)施加了相當(dāng)大的壓力，特別是對(duì)于那些亞洲的新興工業(yè)化國(guó)家（香港、澳門、新加坡、韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣）。來(lái)自低生產(chǎn)成本、發(fā)展中國(guó)家供應(yīng)商的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力可能會(huì)加速多種纖維協(xié)定所要求的在 2020 年完成配額的取消。隨著紡織品與服裝協(xié)定下市場(chǎng)的不斷擴(kuò)大，亞洲的低收入生產(chǎn)商可能 和那些傳統(tǒng)的供應(yīng)商在美國(guó)和歐盟市場(chǎng)上展開更加有效的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)來(lái)爭(zhēng)奪這些國(guó)家的市場(chǎng)份額。由于紡織品與服裝協(xié)定的改革使得消費(fèi)者的價(jià)格下降，服裝、床上亞麻紡織品、地毯和其他產(chǎn)品的進(jìn)口很可能繼續(xù)增加。 accepted13 December 2020 The overall environment facing the US TC industry will be one of rapidly changing market conditions and technological innovation. With the phase out of quotas and growing number of trade agreements, the US TC industry is being exposed to intense petition in export and domestic markets. This is likely to lead domestic industries/labor to demand intervention by national governments to mitigate the adverse impact of trade liberalization (Standbury amp。隨著配額的取消和越來(lái)越多貿(mào)易協(xié)議的出現(xiàn)，美國(guó)的紡織品和服裝行業(yè)在出口和國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)上面臨著更為激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng) 。在過(guò)去的若干年中，美國(guó)的紡織品和服裝企業(yè)為了達(dá)到市場(chǎng)鄰近的內(nèi)在優(yōu)勢(shì)的最大化增加了相當(dāng)大的投資，來(lái)保持現(xiàn)代生產(chǎn)的能力和改善生產(chǎn)和營(yíng)銷的能力。（克里度夫，2020） 美國(guó)紡織品和服裝企業(yè)的一個(gè)重要生存手段就是通過(guò)提供新產(chǎn)品的設(shè)計(jì)和產(chǎn)品目錄來(lái)擴(kuò)大他們潛在的市場(chǎng)。（迪瑞斯科， 2020）加大型服裝銷售在 2020年估計(jì)達(dá)到 470億 美元，占整個(gè)服裝市場(chǎng)的 20%。同樣，服裝生產(chǎn)者應(yīng)該將他們的注意力更多的集中在核心產(chǎn)品上，將垂直生產(chǎn)費(fèi)用減少到企業(yè)的管理費(fèi)用，和其他的企業(yè)建立聯(lián)盟來(lái)鞏固資源和增加市場(chǎng)的份額。由于北美自由貿(mào)易區(qū)協(xié)定的存在，為了能出口到美國(guó)市場(chǎng)，許多亞洲和歐洲企業(yè)已經(jīng)在墨西哥生產(chǎn)某些產(chǎn)品。由于在整個(gè)組織框架中他們處于中心地位，所以他們是領(lǐng)導(dǎo)性的企業(yè)。它同樣提供資金設(shè)備的銷售和技術(shù)，這些都是使服裝生產(chǎn)滿足市場(chǎng)需求所必需的。通過(guò)技術(shù)改進(jìn)和信息技術(shù)進(jìn)行的這些重新構(gòu)建在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)越來(lái)越激烈的環(huán)境中是一種不斷前進(jìn)的方式。在參加 2020年 2月于邁阿密舉行的棉花來(lái)源會(huì)議的服裝執(zhí)行官中，大約有 87%的人認(rèn)為中國(guó)在不久以后將占有美國(guó)市場(chǎng)所有銷售服裝的 50%—90%的份額（國(guó)家勞動(dòng)委員會(huì)， 2020年）。知 名的品牌仍然保持著市場(chǎng)的價(jià)值因?yàn)樗鼈儾粫?huì)受到零售價(jià)格縮水的影響。隨著 2020年配額的完全取消，這些國(guó)家很難在價(jià)格上進(jìn)行競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。 對(duì)于那些面臨中國(guó)激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)， 他們應(yīng)該怎么辦呢？首先，他們應(yīng)該充分利用與美國(guó)在地理?xiàng)l件上鄰近的這種優(yōu)勢(shì)。 其次，低工資并不意味著中國(guó)有相對(duì)的比較優(yōu)勢(shì)。 第三，限制中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)作用的一個(gè)重要的戰(zhàn)略考慮就是擴(kuò)大對(duì)多個(gè)國(guó)家的需要來(lái)分散他們的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比重。 最后，現(xiàn)有的美國(guó)對(duì)原產(chǎn)地規(guī)則限制了對(duì)美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的自由獲取，這種規(guī)則已經(jīng)產(chǎn)生了不可預(yù)料的結(jié)果。