公司戰(zhàn)略和凈現(xiàn)值分析-全文預(yù)覽
【正文】 169。 () $ Tax (34%) Net Profit = 504 depreciation $ Cash Flow $ McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 812 Scenario Analysis ? A variation on sensitivity analysis is scenario analysis. ? For example, the following three scenarios could apply to Stewart Pharmaceuticals: 1. The next years each have heavy cold seasons, and sales exceed expectations, but labor costs skyrocket. 2. The next years are normal and sales meet expectations. 3. The next years each have lighter than normal cold seasons, so sales fail to meet expectations. ? Other scenarios could apply to FDA approval for their drug. ? For each scenario, calculate the NPV. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 89 Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, and BreakEven Analysis ? Allows us to look the behind the NPV number to see firm our estimates are. ? When working with spreadsheets, try to build your model so that you can just adjust variables in one cell and have the NPV calculations key to that. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 85 Stewart Pharmaceuticals ? The Stewart Pharmaceuticals Corporation is considering investing in developing a drug that cures the mon cold. ? A corporate planning group, including representatives from production, marketing, and engineering, has remended that the firm go ahead with the test and development phase. ? This preliminary phase will last one year and cost $1billion. Furthermore, the group believes that there is a 60% chance that tests will prove successful. ? If the initial tests are successful, Stewart Pharmaceuticals can go ahead with fullscale production. This investment phase will cost $1,600 million. Production will occur over the next 4 years. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 81 ? Introduce new products – Apple Corporation and the mouse ? Develop core technology – Honda and small engines ? Create barrier to entry – Qualm’s patents on proprietary technology ? Introduce variations on existing products – Chrysler’s PT Cruiser ? Create product differentiation – CocaCola—it’s the real thing ? Utilize anizational innovation – Motorola justintime inventory management ? Exploit a new technology – Yahoo!’s use of banner advertisements on the web Corporate Strategy and Positive NPV McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 80 Chapter Outline Corporate Strategy and Positive NPV Decision Trees Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, and BreakEven Analysis Options Summary and Conclusions McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 84 Example of Decision Tree Do not study S
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