【正文】 進(jìn)優(yōu)化，得到合理高效的烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)組織方案。1）在研究已有網(wǎng)絡(luò)優(yōu)化模型及分析烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)組織系統(tǒng)特征的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了以廣義成本最小為目標(biāo)的烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域多貨種多方式船舶貨運(yùn)組織優(yōu)化模型。3）烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)組織仿真建模與實(shí)現(xiàn)鑒于數(shù)學(xué)方法不能全面分析貨運(yùn)組織方案優(yōu)劣的缺點(diǎn)，提出利用計(jì)算機(jī)仿真技術(shù)對(duì)多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)組織系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行分析?？偟膩碚f，計(jì)算機(jī)仿真技術(shù)在水運(yùn)運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域已有研究，但針對(duì)樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)組織的仿真研究還較少，特別對(duì)多梯級(jí)樞紐這種存在多貨種，多運(yùn)輸方式，多運(yùn)輸路徑，多級(jí)排隊(duì)的復(fù)雜運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)的仿真研究還處于空白階段。并將開發(fā)的系統(tǒng)應(yīng)用到青島前灣港區(qū)不同規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)方案的論證研究中，仿真了規(guī)劃水域的船舶交通流狀況，為港口規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)方案的評(píng)估論證提供了參考依據(jù)。LAIKK[13] (2000)等用仿真技術(shù)對(duì)3種可能的道口擴(kuò)容方法進(jìn)行評(píng)估，目的是提高港口經(jīng)營(yíng)工作的效率以適應(yīng)集裝箱量的快速增長(zhǎng)。 交通仿真建模研究計(jì)算機(jī)仿真技術(shù)在各種領(lǐng)域得到了廣泛應(yīng)用，在交通運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域，仿真技術(shù)也得到了一定的應(yīng)用。韓?。?008）[8]為了實(shí)現(xiàn)交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)混合交通流隨機(jī)平衡分配，分析了廣義費(fèi)用下多用戶多方式的路徑選擇機(jī)理與網(wǎng)絡(luò)平衡條件及信息條件下多用戶多方式對(duì)路徑選擇的影響特征，運(yùn)用數(shù)學(xué)規(guī)劃理論，建立了基于信息條件的隨機(jī)混合交通平衡分配模型，并證明了模型解的等價(jià)性與唯一性。該文采用變分不等式的建模方法，求解時(shí)采用了Gauss—Seidel塊分解耦合相繼平均法的求解策略。例如，（1986）[3]通過給定每個(gè)運(yùn)輸貨輪的具體運(yùn)輸線路，整合后得到航運(yùn)公司的運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)。烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)組織方式優(yōu)化研究重點(diǎn)是怎樣定量地分析各類貨物合適的運(yùn)輸方式、運(yùn)輸路徑及確定相應(yīng)運(yùn)輸路徑上的貨運(yùn)量及各運(yùn)輸路徑上船舶的運(yùn)力分配問題。由于烏江船舶貨運(yùn)系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性，構(gòu)建理論優(yōu)化模型存在一定難度，且模型的目標(biāo)局限性使優(yōu)化結(jié)果沒有全面考慮系統(tǒng)各項(xiàng)因素，優(yōu)化的船舶貨運(yùn)組織方案的可行性需要驗(yàn)證，計(jì)算機(jī)仿真技術(shù)的發(fā)展為其提供了手段，本文針對(duì)烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域通航環(huán)境特點(diǎn)，首次嘗試采用計(jì)算機(jī)仿真技術(shù)對(duì)多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域貨運(yùn)組織進(jìn)行仿真，以驗(yàn)證方案的可行性。加上烏江流域運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)空間跨度大等問題使其運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)存在固有的復(fù)雜性。但各梯級(jí)樞紐“重發(fā)電，輕航運(yùn)”的建設(shè)模式也給烏江航運(yùn)發(fā)展帶來了巨大阻礙，存在著通航設(shè)施建設(shè)進(jìn)度不一致、承船箱尺寸不一致、通過時(shí)間不一致、通航流量不一致等問題，而這些問題直接導(dǎo)致了樞紐的通過能力各不相同，直接形成“短板”效應(yīng)。關(guān)鍵字：烏江 多梯級(jí)樞紐 網(wǎng)絡(luò)優(yōu)化改進(jìn)模型 arena仿真建模 高效船舶貨運(yùn)組織方案AbstractWujiang River is the largest river in Guizhou province, but the Wu River shipping channel condition have not been able to meet the needs of development of shipping. the construction of cascade hydroprojects will greatly improve the shipping condition of Wujiang River and bring opportunity for the developing of regional economy and the shipping industry, the multihub cascade of Wujiang will be supporting the shipping facilities, but there are several problem about shipping facilities: each shipping facilities has inconsistent construction progress, different size of ship lift, different time to have ship passed, different navigation flow problem and other issues, leading to a short board effect, by the development of economic along the Wujiang River, the conflict will be created by the different growing demand of transportation and passing capacity of navigation hub, bring a great difficulty for the organization of shipping in restriction of Wujiang multicascade hydroprojects. To plan ahead to maximize the efficiency of highgrade channel and navigation facilities in Wujiang ,giving full play to the advantages of the Wujiang River golden waterway, rational using of transport network resources, a efficient multicargo organization program should be made so that the whole channel Wujiang cascade hydroprojects district will be eased off. Currently, the qualitative analysis play a main role in the research of shipping organization in the hub region, quantitative analysis is not much and can’t analysis the whole system in a overall view, what’s more, the shipping organization like Wujiang River multicascade hydroprojects issue has not yet been addressed. Network optimization model often be taken used of in solving the plex organization freight transport networks, but the limitations goal of network optimization model can not make a prehensive assessment optimization results. Computer simulation technology have gradually entered the field of transportation planning, but simulation technology mainly work out as a tool of validation and evaluation, taking use the simulation technology to optimize will be effected by subjective factor and difficult to find the optimal solution.Based on the above reasons, the following aspects will be taken in the research work. First, qualitative analysis the influence of construction of a multicascade hydroprojects on shipping organization, then based on the characteristics of Wujiang multicascade hydroprojects, improving the exist network optimization model to make out a lowest generalized cost model of shipping organization in Wujiang multicascade hydroprojects region, solving the model to get the initial optimization shipping organization program. on the other hand, introduction the idea of ??queuing theory to analysis the multicascade hydroprojects. Then, on the based of analysis of the discrete freight system of Wujiang multicascade region, building the simulation model in a ideological of objectoriented to simulate and test the initial program to find out the possible problem with the initial program. Finally, taking use of puter simulation technology and mathematical programming method in general to optimize the initial program of Wujiang multicascade hydroprojects shipping organization, getting a reasonable program which can take use of Wujiang multicascade hydroprojects shipping system in a efficient way.Keywords: multicascade hydroprojects；puter simulation；optimization for freight shipping organization；the queuing system73 / 80目 錄摘 要 IAbstract II目 錄 IV第1章 緒論 1 研究背景及意義 1 國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 2 內(nèi)河樞紐區(qū)域貨運(yùn)組織方式研究 2 交通仿真建模研究 3 4 4 5第2章 烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)組織環(huán)境及存在問題 7 7 8 10 10 11 11 12 12 14 15第3章 烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)組織理論優(yōu)化模型建立及實(shí)現(xiàn) 17 17 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 21 22 23 23 25 26 28 29 29 30 31 33第4章 烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)組織仿真建模與實(shí)現(xiàn) 34 34 34 35 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 46 50 54 56 57 57 57 57 59第5章 烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)組織總體方案研究 60 60 61 62 64 65第6章 結(jié)論 66 66 67致 謝 68參考文獻(xiàn) 69攻讀碩士學(xué)位期間發(fā)表的論文及參加的科研項(xiàng)目 72第1章 緒論 研究背景及意義烏江干流全長(zhǎng)1037公里，貫通貴州、重慶兩省市，于涪陵匯入長(zhǎng)江。摘 要烏江是貴州省內(nèi)第一大河，烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐的興建將極大改善烏江的航運(yùn)條件，為烏江區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)和航運(yùn)事業(yè)帶來了新的契機(jī)，烏江干流梯級(jí)水利樞紐將配套建設(shè)通航設(shè)施，但通航設(shè)施存在著通航設(shè)施建設(shè)進(jìn)度不一致、承船箱尺寸不一致、通過時(shí)間不一致、通航流量不一致等問題，直接形成“短板”效應(yīng)，隨著沿江經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，日益增長(zhǎng)的運(yùn)輸需求與樞紐通航設(shè)施通過能力之間將產(chǎn)生矛盾，為未雨綢繆、最大限度地提高烏江通航設(shè)施通行效率，充分發(fā)揮烏江黃金水道的優(yōu)勢(shì)，合理利用運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)中各種資源，優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)各貨類船舶的高效船舶貨運(yùn)組織方案已迫在眉睫。 本論文首先分析多梯級(jí)樞紐的建設(shè)對(duì)烏江船舶貨運(yùn)組織帶來的影響；其次針對(duì)烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域船舶貨運(yùn)系統(tǒng)特點(diǎn)，改進(jìn)現(xiàn)有網(wǎng)絡(luò)優(yōu)化模型，構(gòu)建出廣義成本最小的烏江高效船舶貨運(yùn)組織優(yōu)化模型，其中引入單重休假規(guī)則M/G/1樞紐排隊(duì)系統(tǒng)模型確定船舶通過樞紐時(shí)間，并求解出初步優(yōu)化方案；接著針對(duì)烏江船舶貨運(yùn)系統(tǒng)離散特性，基于arena平臺(tái)構(gòu)建出面向?qū)ο蟮姆抡婺Ｐ?，以?yàn)證理論優(yōu)化方案的可行性及存在的問題；最后通過理論優(yōu)化方案與仿真模擬的交互優(yōu)化過程，最終提出適合烏江多梯級(jí)樞紐區(qū)域貨運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的高效船舶貨運(yùn)組織方案。一條通江達(dá)海的水運(yùn)通道將把貴陽、遵義這兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)中心連接到長(zhǎng)江黃金水運(yùn)通道上，結(jié)束貴州省主要城市沒有水運(yùn)通道的歷史。由于烏江流域內(nèi)具有水電樞紐，升船機(jī)、港口等多種水運(yùn)設(shè)施，水運(yùn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)與公路及鐵路運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)連接，使得貨運(yùn)組織方式涉及多種運(yùn)輸方式、多式聯(lián)運(yùn)及中轉(zhuǎn)點(diǎn)設(shè)置問題。因此，