【正文】 復蘇有減弱的趨勢，其他如英國等發(fā)達國家經濟增長也將會走強；在新興市場，拉美國家2003年將保持相對的弱勢，但2004年將會出現反彈，亞洲新興市場由于該地區(qū)旺盛的內需，將繼續(xù)保持快速的經濟擴張；歐盟外圍國家和其他處于經濟轉型期的國家，如果外部環(huán)境比較有利，內需得以恢復的話，也會繼續(xù)以較快的速度增長。在價格指數方面，各機構的預測雖然因對石油價格的估計不同而有所不同，但普遍都認為2003年通貨膨脹率將有所下降，2004年基本保持不變?？偟膩碚f，全球金融市場的不景氣雖然給歐元區(qū)的經濟增長帶來陰影，但他們的影響預計不會超過預測的水平。盡管如此，專家仍然預測2003年全球的經濟增長率會逐漸上升并超過2002年?？偸罩Ь蠓陆档脑蚴?002年歐美經濟增長乏力，美元歐元利率持續(xù)下調，利差大幅度收窄；另外由于我行的負債業(yè)務一私人客戶存款為主，取消保密法帶來的心理恐慌使我行私人客戶存款持續(xù)下滑，導致占我行總收支80%以上的利息收支均大幅下降，進而導致總收支下降，但由于收入降幅低于支出的降幅,所以總贏利仍然保持上升勢頭。分行也一直支持員工參加當地金融同業(yè)的培訓，如CLEAR STREAM的清算和債券托管業(yè)務培訓、BLOOM BERG 的信息終端操作培訓、ABBL（盧森堡銀行協(xié)會）的一些培訓等，員工得以在更廣闊的視野里借鑒同業(yè)的經驗，使分行的發(fā)展更有生機。盧中行共有員工40人，其中外派干部20人，其余均為當地招聘。第二節(jié)　中國銀行盧森堡分行的經營狀況一、經營概況盧中行以經營普通銀行業(yè)務為主，包括存款、按揭和存款質押貸款、組織歐洲和其他貨幣的銀團貸款、外匯交易、貿易融資與服務、保函、代理債券買賣、代理股票買賣、出租保管箱等。與分行合署辦公，一套人馬兩塊牌子，1993年開始分開辦公，主營業(yè)務為組織安排對國內企業(yè)的銀團貸款，資金來源為資本金和從歐洲各分行拆借的資金。其次，合理避稅；根據中盧兩國《避免雙重征稅的協(xié)議》中的規(guī)定，盧森堡的企業(yè)、居民在華投資或貸款的利息或分紅所得需要在中國繳納所得稅，該所得稅可用來抵扣該盧森堡注冊公司或個人在盧的所得稅。當然在對公司的授信融資中也出現了呆壞帳，由于盧中行自成立以來一直保持贏利，家底豐厚，所以呆壞帳能夠按一定的步驟核銷。經過二十多年的精心經營，盧中行在競爭實力、人才隊伍、管理經驗等方面都有了豐厚的積累，取得了顯著的業(yè)績，并在盧森堡乃至歐洲金融市場形成了一定的知名度。第一章 中國銀行盧森堡分行的歷史與發(fā)展現狀中國銀行成立于1912年，是中國歷史最為悠久的銀行。由于筆者工作于所研究的對象之中，所獲得的都是第一手的資料和信息，正因為如此，這種研究對于解決金融企業(yè)在競爭中的實際問題時更有借鑒意義。中國銀行作為我國較早實現跨國經營的銀行在多年的實踐中積累了經驗、培養(yǎng)了人才，競爭力不斷提升，在國際金融業(yè)占據了一席之地。我們已經深切感到當今時代已經不能以“實業(yè)界”、“金融界”這樣傳統(tǒng)劃分的視野來觀察和考慮問題。在這種形勢下,如何根據經營環(huán)境的變化,因地制宜地制定新的經營與發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,不斷在觀念和產品上推陳出新,成為保證中國銀行盧森堡分行持續(xù)發(fā)展的一個決定性因素。在過去的20多年里，該行已經上繳利潤和各種費用8648萬歐元，累計交納的各類稅款4517萬歐元，不僅為中國銀行創(chuàng)造了豐厚的利潤回報，還為當地金融市場的繁榮做出了積極貢獻。經過多年的精心經營，該行在業(yè)務拓展、管理經驗和人才培養(yǎng)等方面都有了豐厚積累，走出了一條符合自身生存和發(fā)展的道路，成功地在盧森堡乃至歐洲金融界確立了它的信譽、知名度和競爭力。盧森堡銀行業(yè)面臨整體創(chuàng)利下滑的不利形勢，數十家銀行因為經營效益不佳而選擇了退出。關鍵詞　跨國銀行 盧森堡 經營戰(zhàn)略ABSTRACKBANK OF CHINA Luxembourg Branch is the first branch that BANK OF CHINA set up abroad after 1949,it is also the first branch that BANK OF CHINA set up in Europe after to his more than 20 years’ painstaking effort, it not only gets rich accumulations in field of business development, management experience and qualified personnel development, but also finds a suitable way for his existence and development. Now it has been famous for his prestige, celebration and petitive abilities. Till the end of 2002,BANK OF CHINA Luxembourg had contributed million Euro to BANK OF CHINA Head Office and had been levied million Euro by the relative tax authorities.But since 2001,BANK OF CHINA Luxembourg Branch had to face to many difficulties as other financial institutions in Luxembourg. For example, it is always puzzled by the possible adjustment of policy or law, the ing levy of withholding tax on nonresident interest ine, the constant downcast global economy, the incessant decline of interest rates of Euro and USD and the devalue of USD against Euro. Actually since 1997, there are more than 50 financial institutions in Luxembourg have quitted from this market, especially in the recent three years, the average speed of quitting almost reach 10 banks per year. Undoubtedly, it is a burning issue of the moment to find a suitable business strategy for Bank of China Luxembourg Branch on the basis of the fastchanging situation, it’s also a crucial factor for Bank of China Luxembourg Branch’s continued development. The writer takes BANK OF CHINA Luxembourg as the object of study, puts his emphasis on analysing the changes of global and local economic environment and climate of financial industries, on analysing the powers and abilities of BANK OF CHINA Luxembourg Branch in his peting with other financial institutions. Then the present article aims to work out a suitable strategy of BANK OF CHINA Luxembourg Branch and a set of operable measures to realize the strategy. The research of this article, in a certain sense, finds a way for the Chinese financial industry when they have to react against the varied environment in their multinational business activities. At the beginning of the paper, the writer firstly introduces the history and achievement of BANK OF CHINA Luxembourg Branch in summary. Then the analysis and forecast of global and local economic environment, the analysis and forecast of global and local financial institution development are given in the second part. The writer tries to put BANK OF CHINA Luxembourg Branch into a threedimensional and varied space to analyze it so that we can know clearly the importance of the environment factors and the necessaries of Bank of China Luxembourg Branch choosing a strategy for the varied environment. In this chapter, the writer also introduces the background and implements of international antimoney laundering. In the third part of this paper, the writer tries to find advantages and disadvantages of BANK OF CHINA Luxembourg Branch during parison with other financial institutions located in Luxembourg as well as opportunities and challenges of BANK OF CHINA Luxembourg Branch in process of petition. When doing analysis, the method of SWOT was used. How to choose a business strategy for BANK OF CHINA Luxembourg Branch is stated in the fourth part of the paper. After researching the background of the strategy choosing, the writer gives the business strategy of BANK OF CHINA Luxembourg Branch from three respects . business development, marketing and risk control draw support from the relative theories concerned with strategy choosing such as ResourceBased View, Dramatic AbilitiesBased View and Competition Advantage theory etc.At the end of the article, the writer sets forth the measures to ensure the implementation of the strategy, including improving the level of personal resource management, shortening the chain of organization and establishing a more creative enterprise culture.Key words　multinational bank Luxembourg development strategy目　錄引　　言………………………………………………………………………………1第一章 中國銀行盧森堡分行的歷史與發(fā)展現狀…………………………………2第一節(jié) 中國銀行盧森堡分行的歷史沿革……………………………………2第二節(jié) 中國銀行盧森堡分行的經營狀況……………………………………4第二章 中國銀行盧森堡分行的經營環(huán)境分析……………………………………6第一節(jié) 全球經濟環(huán)境的現狀和預測…………………………………………6第二節(jié) 國際金融業(yè)的發(fā)展現狀和趨勢………………………………………8第三節(jié) 盧森堡的政治經濟環(huán)境分析………………………………………15第四節(jié) 盧森堡的金融市場分析…………………………………