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operating under the scrutiny of tighter capital requirements, limiting their ability to expand Mamp。A boom simmers out, allowing frms to plete more rational assessments of acquisition targets and their values. Even so, the latest movers still generate shareholder returns that lag those made by early movers. Finally, the form of financing plays a role in determining shareholder returns for acquirers later in the cycle. Companies that finance their deals primarily with cash see smaller declines in their shares than panies that use their own equity. Setting the Stage There are two basic types of acquirers: strategic and financial. Strategic buyers are panies that use Mamp。A transactions destroy shareholder value for the acquiring panies. In addition, the market’s initial reaction to a deal is a reasonably unbiased predictor of longterm value creation. Mark Sirower and Sumit Sahni, consultants versed in Mamp。A activity tumbled during the next two years, refecting the financial and economic tumult. While 2020’s deal volume was respectable given the stock market’s sharp decline, the deals were heavily skewed toward the frst half of the year. Announced activity was weak in 2020, but the fourth quarter was the strongest of the year, refecting the improvement in equity and credit markets. For all of 2020, global Mamp。A Trends and Analysis by Michael J. Mauboussin, Legg Mason Capital Management* We may be at the front end of another mergers and acquisition (Mamp。A Trends and Analysis 出 處: Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 作 者: Michael 原文: Surge in the Urge to Merge: Mamp。 data through 2020. After reaching an alltime high in 2020, Mamp。A deals create or destroy shareholder value. Companies do deals for a host of reasons, including the pursuit of growth, diversifcation of their businesses, or to consolidate an industry. And panies often feel pelled to do a deal simply because other panies in their industry are doing them. Generally, panies, investment bankers, and investors assume that deals that add to earnings per share are virtuous. But for an acquirer there is ultimately only one test of a deal’s merits: whether it creates shareholder value. Since investors have a strong incentive to properly evaluate a deal’s economic value, the stock price change following an announcement is often an excellent barometer of a deal’s merit. On this point, however, the evidence is far from reassuring. Research shows that roughly twothirds of public Mamp。A announcement Buyers acting roughly twothirds through the wave see average declines of approximately 3%. Returns actually improve somewhat later in the wave, but are still vastly below those of the earlymovers. Te professors defned an acquisition wave as any sixyear period where the peak year of acquisition activity was twice as high as the base year, and where there was a subsequent decline of greater than 50%. Te sample included over 3,000 panies in a wide range of industries from 1984 through 2020. All returns were adjusted for market factors. There are several benefts to acting early in a cycle, including choosing from a greater pool of potential targets and the ability to buy assets cheaply. Naturally, the