中級(jí)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)aggregatesupply(文件)
【正文】 ”拉動(dòng) ” 通貨膨脹上升；反之，則相反。 1 () nuu? ? ? ??? ? ? ?32 Shifting the Phillips curveexpectation 人們可以隨著時(shí)間調(diào)整預(yù)期，通貨膨脹和失業(yè)的取舍關(guān)系只在短期中成立 . u ? nu1e???()enuu? ? ? ?? ? ? ?2e? ??., ?e 上升，引起短期 . 向上移動(dòng) 33 降低通貨膨脹的代價(jià) ?1970S的滯漲，美國的通貨膨脹率高達(dá) 11% ?the Fed 必須實(shí)行緊縮性的貨幣政策。 2020 SouthWestern 35 The sacrifice ratio ?為了減少通貨膨脹 , 政策制定者們能夠緊縮agg. demand,引起失業(yè)上升并超過 the natural rate. ?The sacrifice ratio 衡量通貨膨脹率變動(dòng)一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)所必須放棄的的實(shí)際 GDP 的百分比。 ?長期中，經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)到古典模型描述的產(chǎn)出、就業(yè)和失業(yè)水平 . 44 另一個(gè)假說 : 滯后性 ?Hysteresis: 歷史對變量（自然失業(yè)率）的長期持續(xù)影響。 45 習(xí)題 ? 6 46 Chapter summary 1. Three models of aggregate supply in the short run: ? stickywage model ? imperfectinformation model ? stickyprice model All three models imply that output rises above its natural rate when the price level falls below the expected price level. 47 Chapter summary 2. Phillips curve ? derived from the SRAS curve ? states that inflation depends on ? expected inflation ? cyclical unemployment ? supply shocks ? presents policymakers with a shortrun tradeoff between inflation and unemployment 48 Chapter summary 3. How people form expectations of inflation ? adaptive expectations ? based on recently observed inflation ? implies “inertia” ? rational expectations ? based on all available information ? implies that disinflation may be painless 49 Chapter summary 4. The natural rate hypothesis ? states that changes in aggregate demand can only affect output and employment in the short run 50 。 ?周期性失業(yè)的勞動(dòng)者也許會(huì)喪失對工資定價(jià)的影響力：內(nèi)部人（就業(yè)者）可能通過討價(jià)還價(jià)獲得高工資。 2020 SouthWestern 41 The sacrifice ratio for the Volcker disinflation ?Previous slide: ?通貨膨脹下降 % ?周期性失業(yè)共計(jì) % ?Okun’s law: 失業(yè)的 1百分點(diǎn)意味著產(chǎn)出下降 2百分點(diǎn)。 ?導(dǎo)致失業(yè)率上升。 負(fù)面的供給沖擊會(huì)提高生產(chǎn)成本，使得企業(yè)提高價(jià)格。 1 ()nuu? ? ? ??? ? ? ?31 提高 amp。 ?如果政策制定者緊縮總需求，能夠降低通貨膨脹，但是是以更高的暫時(shí)失業(yè)為代價(jià)。方程總結(jié)的關(guān)系 Y P LRAS YSRAS () eY Y P P? ? ??ePP?ePP?e
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