中級(jí)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)(文件)
【正文】 , 進(jìn)口許可證 ? ?IM ? ?NX ? 對(duì) 美元的需求上升， NX曲線右移動(dòng) 貿(mào)易政策不會(huì)影響 S or I , 于是，資本流動(dòng)和美元供給不變 . ε 2 51 4. 限制進(jìn)口的貿(mào)易政策 ε NX NX (ε )1 SI?NX1 ε 1 NX (ε )2 結(jié)果 : ?ε 0 (需求增加 ) ?NX = 0 (供給固定 ) ?IM 0 (政策 ) ?EX 0 (ε提高 ) ε 2 ?貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義政策并不影響貿(mào)易余額 52 名義匯率的決定因素 ?實(shí)際匯率 : *ePεP???名義匯率 : *Pe εP??53 名義匯率的決定因素 ( * , )M L r YP ?? ?( ) ( )*NX ε S I r???e 取決于實(shí)際匯率和國(guó)內(nèi)外的價(jià)格水平 … ?…這些變量是由如下決定 : *Pe εP??**** ( * * , )M L r YP ?? ?54 名義匯率的決定因素 ?用增長(zhǎng)率來(lái)表達(dá)方程式 : *Pe ε P??**e ε P Pe ε P P? ? ?? ? ? ?*εε ??? ? ???給定 ε水平 , e 的增長(zhǎng)率等于國(guó)外的通貨膨脹率與國(guó)內(nèi)通貨膨脹率的差額 . 55 Inflation and nominal exchange rates Percentage change in nominal exchange rate 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 Inflation differential Depreciation relative to . dollar Appreciation relative to . dollar 1 2 3 1 0 2 3 4 5 6 8 7 France Canada Sweden Australia UK Ireland Spain South Africa Italy New Zealand Netherlands Germany Japan Belgium Switzerland ?實(shí)際匯率是固定的，名義匯率變動(dòng)源于物價(jià)水平的變動(dòng) 59 現(xiàn)實(shí)世界中， PPP 成立嗎 ? 不 , 兩個(gè)原因 : 1. 不存在國(guó)際套利 ?非貿(mào)易產(chǎn)品 ?交通運(yùn)輸成本 2. 不同國(guó)家的產(chǎn)品不能完全替代 . 然而 , PPP 是一個(gè)有用的理論 : ?簡(jiǎn)單 amp。 ε is a tradeweighted index. 案例研究 The Reagan Deficits revisited 61 . 是一個(gè)開(kāi)放大型經(jīng)濟(jì) ?到目前為止，我們學(xué)習(xí)了兩個(gè)長(zhǎng)期的模型 : ?封閉經(jīng)濟(jì) (chapter 3) ?小型開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì) (chapter 5) ?大型的開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì) like the 上兩個(gè)極端情況之間 . ?例如 … 62 NX I r large open economy small open economy closed economy 三個(gè)模型中的擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策 falls, but not as much as in small open economy falls no change falls, but not as much as in closed economy no change falls rises, but not as much as in closed economy no change rises 擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政使得國(guó)民儲(chǔ)蓄下降，下降幅度依賴于開(kāi)放程度 : 63 宋錚：中國(guó)貿(mào)易順差的真相 ?國(guó)有和私營(yíng)企業(yè)不對(duì)稱的融資能力可以為中國(guó)的貿(mào)易順差和資本輸出提供一個(gè)合理的解釋。 ?推論：資源重組規(guī)模越大，順差也就越大；在中國(guó)，私營(yíng)企業(yè)比重增加越快的省份，貿(mào)易順差也會(huì)越大。 67 Chapter summary 1. Net exportsthe difference between ? exports and imports ? a country’s output (Y ) and its spending (C + I + G) 2. Net capital outflow equals ? purchases of foreign assets minus foreign purchases of the country’s assets ? the difference between saving and investment 3. National ine accounts identities: ? Y = C + I + G + NX ? trade balance NX = S ? I capital outflow 68 Chapter summary 4. Impact of policies on NX : ? NX increases if policy causes S to rise or I to fall ? NX does not change if policy affects neither S no
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