【正文】 其絕緣的老化，還會(huì)過多損耗能量，可能引起電氣線路走火，引發(fā)重大事故；電力負(fù)荷計(jì)算過大，將會(huì)造成變壓器容量過剩，以及供電線路截面過大，相應(yīng)的保護(hù)整定值就會(huì)定得過高，從而降低了電氣設(shè)備保護(hù)的靈敏度；與此同時(shí)，電力 負(fù)荷計(jì)算過大還增加了投資，降低了工程的經(jīng)濟(jì)性。 通常當(dāng)電力負(fù)荷增大 10%時(shí)，變壓器容量要增加 11%一 12%，電線電纜等有色金屬的消耗量相應(yīng)增加 15%一 20%，同時(shí)還會(huì)增加變壓器無功功率所造成的有功電力損耗。另外通過研究住宅需要系數(shù)的變化規(guī)律，采用一種三段歸納求和法擬合了需要系數(shù)與住宅戶數(shù)之間的數(shù)學(xué)模擬式，獲得了不同的住宅戶數(shù)所對(duì)應(yīng)的不同的需要系數(shù)，從而避免了工程設(shè)計(jì)中需要系數(shù)選值的不確定性與經(jīng)驗(yàn)性，提高負(fù)荷計(jì)算的精度，使之更科學(xué)地貼近工程實(shí)際。s economics. Generally speaking, when the load is greater than 10% of the actual use of load, the transformer capacity to increase 11% to 12%, the consumption of nonferrous metals such as wire and cable have increased by 15% to 20%, while also increasing transformer reactive power caused by the active power consumption. Thus, the power supply design load calculation, especially in determining the capacity of the transformer when occupied an important position. Therefore, the right to choose the method of calculation of load and the characteristic parameters of the electrical design of particular importance. Electrical load calculation residential buildings, affecting a variety of distribution facilities, residential and reasonable choice, bearing thousands of households in the electrical safety and reliable operation of electrical equipment. Under the current needs of the national standard remended by the coefficient, critical load calculation is reasonably accurate calculation of housing need factor load and a reasonable selection, this paper to study the two main elements are: how to determine the calculation of housing units and how to load index Select a scientific factor, thus avoiding the need for engineering design in the election coefficient value of uncertainty and empirical, to improve the accuracy of load calculations, making it more scientifically close to engineering practice. Keywords: residential load calculation， needs to factor， load forecasting， fitting 北京林業(yè)大學(xué)本科 畢業(yè)論文 III 目錄 1 緒論 .......................................................................................................................................... 1 研究的目的及意義 ........................................................................................................... 1 國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 ............................................................................................................... 1 本文主要工作 ................................................................................................................... 2 北京林業(yè)大學(xué)本科 畢業(yè)論文 IV 2 電力負(fù)荷計(jì)算理論基礎(chǔ) .............................................................................................................. 4 建筑電力負(fù)荷的分類 ........................................................................................................ 4 電力負(fù)荷的分級(jí)及對(duì)供電電源的要求 ............................................................................... 4 電力負(fù)荷的分級(jí) ..................................................................................................... 4 各級(jí)電力 負(fù)荷對(duì)供電電源的要求 ............................................................................ 4 電力用戶負(fù)荷計(jì)算 ........................................................................................................... 5 按逐級(jí)計(jì)算法確定用戶負(fù)荷 ................................................................................... 5 按需要系數(shù)法確定用 戶負(fù)荷 ................................................................................... 5 按年產(chǎn)量估算用戶負(fù)荷 .......................................................................................... 5 國家民用建筑電氣設(shè)計(jì)規(guī)范中的負(fù)荷計(jì)算 ........................................................................ 6 3 各種經(jīng)典的電力負(fù)荷計(jì)算方 法 ................................................................................................... 8 計(jì)算負(fù)荷及計(jì)算方法 ........................................................................................................ 8 計(jì)算負(fù)荷 ............................................................................................................... 8 負(fù)荷計(jì)算方法 ........................................................................................................ 8 各種計(jì)算方法的適用條件及優(yōu)缺點(diǎn) ................................................................................. 10 需要系數(shù)法使用前提及存在的問題 ....................................................................... 10 二項(xiàng)式系數(shù)法使用前提及存在的問題 ....................................................................11 利用系數(shù)法和單位產(chǎn)品耗電法使用前提及存在的問題 ............................................11 國內(nèi)住宅建筑用電負(fù)荷及計(jì)算的現(xiàn)狀 ............................................................................. 12 住宅建筑的供電 方案 ............................................................................................ 12 問題的提出 .................................................................................................................... 14 4 典型住宅電力負(fù)荷的回歸預(yù)測與分析 ...................................................................................... 16 用電量的調(diào)查分析 ......................................................................................................... 16 住宅建筑計(jì)算負(fù)荷的預(yù)測 ............................................................................................... 16 預(yù)測方法的確定 ................................................................................................... 16 回歸分析理論基礎(chǔ) ............................................................................................... 17 樣本數(shù)據(jù)的獲取 .................................................................................................... 18 建筑電力負(fù)荷回歸模型的建立 .............................................................................. 20 預(yù)測模型的顯著性檢驗(yàn)及殘差分析 ....................................................................... 22 預(yù)測模型的應(yīng)用 ............................................................................................................. 23 5 住宅電力負(fù)荷需要系數(shù)的分析與研究 ...................................................................................... 25 住宅建筑需要系數(shù)的分析 .......................