【正文】 .........................................2 研究的方法及論文的結(jié)構(gòu) ................................................3 研究的對象及內(nèi)容 ......................................................62 決策分析及決策樹的相關(guān)概念 ...............................................7 決策的概念及意義 ......................................................7 決策分析的概念及其理論基礎(chǔ) ............................................8 決策分析術(shù)語 ......................................................8 決策問題的分類 ....................................................9 決策問題的不確定性 ................................................9 決策準(zhǔn)則 .........................................................10 決策的程序 .......................................................11 決策樹的相關(guān)概念 .....................................................12 決策樹的概念及作用 ...............................................12 決策樹的構(gòu)造 .....................................................13 決策樹的分析步驟 .................................................14 決策樹的局限性 ...................................................15 決策樹中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 ...............................................153 決策樹在企業(yè)投資的應(yīng)用 ..................................................17 運(yùn)用 treeplan 建立企業(yè)投資方案決策樹 ....................................17 運(yùn)用 excel 對其進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析及規(guī)劃其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖 ..............................20 目標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 .....................................................20 各個(gè)方案的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖 .................................................21II / 49 投資方案概率變化的靈敏度分析 .....................................24 用水晶球模擬概率分布風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 .........................................264 結(jié)論及展望 ..............................................................324 結(jié)論及展望 ..............................................................32 結(jié)論 ..................................................................32 整體最優(yōu)決策方案的確定 ...........................................32 影響整體最優(yōu)決策方案的因素 .......................................32 對類似的決策的示范意義： .........................................32 本文的不足之處與展望 .................................................33 模擬的局限性 .....................................................33 數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量的局限性 .................................................33 后續(xù)研究工作展望 .................................................33致謝 .......................................................................35參考文獻(xiàn) ...................................................................36附錄 .......................................................................37附錄 1 英文文獻(xiàn) .............................................................37附錄 2 漢語翻譯 .............................................................401 / 491 引言企業(yè)要生存與發(fā)展，必須重視投資效果和經(jīng)濟(jì)效益, 結(jié)合自身的技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)能力，對項(xiàng)目投資的行業(yè)方向、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益進(jìn)行運(yùn)籌規(guī)劃和科學(xué)決策。(3) 本文運(yùn)用理論聯(lián)系實(shí)際的方法對上述內(nèi)容進(jìn)行了探討和研究，為不斷地改進(jìn)完善我國現(xiàn)階段企業(yè)投資決策方法提出了可行的方法和建議。本文針對目前企業(yè)投資規(guī)劃階段出現(xiàn)的盲目確定方案的現(xiàn)狀，對投資的決策和方案的選擇進(jìn)行了研究，并通過建立基于決策樹的數(shù)學(xué)模型對這種選擇進(jìn)行“量化” ，希望能夠有效地降低決策過程中的主觀隨意性。I / 49?基于決策樹的企業(yè)投資方案決策分析摘要：隨著信息化水平的提高，人們對決策的科學(xué)性的要求程度越來越高，以往的靠決策者個(gè)人意志左右的決策已經(jīng)不能適應(yīng)復(fù)雜多變的決策環(huán)境了，本文依據(jù)投資決策的部分流程，對企業(yè)投資決策選擇、投資方案選擇進(jìn)行了研究。 本文主要完成了以下幾項(xiàng)工作：(1) 明確了企業(yè)投資決策的概念，分析了決策分析及決策樹的理論基礎(chǔ)，解析了在進(jìn)行投資決策時(shí)的所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，以及決策樹和水晶球模擬的基本原理和建模步驟。關(guān)鍵詞：決策分析；決策樹；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；模擬Decision Analysis of the enterprise’s investment Based on Decision Tree ModelAbstract：With the improvement of informatization level, people’s scientific demands on the decision making are more and more high, in the past, the individual will by policymakers around by decision can not adapt to the plex and changeable decision environment already, based on the part process, investment decision of enterprise investment choices, investment scheme III / 49selection is studied. From A corporate investments case, to analysis the risk, the paper builds rely on excel, decisionmaking tree, crystal balls, building the investment decision making model, solved in the face of multiple levels and enterprises of the decision making problem decisionmaking problem and how it can be simulated problems’ probability.Meanwhile, in the current market petition is intense, investment costs rising cases, how to correctly select investment project is also receiving more and more attention from enterprises. In view of present enterprise investment planning stages of the blind sure scheme situation, investment decisions and options are studied, and by establishing the mathematical model based on the decision tree for this choice, hope to the quantization effectively reduce the decision process of subjective freedom. This article mainly pleted a few job below: (1) Clear the enterprise investment decisions, analyzes the concept of decision analysis and decision tree, analyzes the theoretical basis of the investment decisions of the risks they might face, then analyzes decision tree and crystal ball simulation of basic principle and modeling steps. Based on the analysis of the enterprise investment scheme selection and planning out the risk map of each scheme figure. (2) To enterprise investment decision analysis, bining the investment case, build the multilevel model based on decision tree and forecast model. based on crystal ball simulated. (3) This paper uses the theory with the practice of the above content method is discussed and studied, which constantly improving and perfecting our country present stage enterprise investment decisionmaking method proposed the feasible methods and suggestions.Keywords: decision analysis。投資決策是決策理論在投資領(lǐng)域的具體運(yùn)用，是投資主體為了實(shí)現(xiàn)效益目標(biāo), 運(yùn)用決策的原理與方法，系統(tǒng)分析主客觀條件，從可采取的多個(gè)投資方案中選取最佳或最滿意方案的整個(gè)過程，企業(yè)投資決策是企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略制定、戰(zhàn)略選擇以及戰(zhàn)略執(zhí)行過程的重要組成部分。本章將討論研究背景、目的、意義所在和研究內(nèi)容、方法和論文結(jié)構(gòu)以及研究的具體內(nèi)容。投資決策（investment decision）是一個(gè)對復(fù)雜的多因素進(jìn)行邏輯分析和綜合判斷的動態(tài)過程，它包括對所投資項(xiàng)目的必要性和可行性進(jìn)行研究論證，也包括對項(xiàng)目投資方案的制定和選擇，還包括對投資方案的評估和審批。決策是一個(gè)企業(yè)賴以生存的根本，決策正確與否直接影響到企業(yè)的收益與生存發(fā)展,但決策的制定卻是一個(gè)復(fù)雜紛繁過程。因此通過計(jì)算機(jī)模擬來進(jìn)行企業(yè)決策模擬具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,本文就是應(yīng)用電子表格中的決策樹插件 treeplan來建立決策樹，這樣即可以應(yīng)用決策樹多層次結(jié)構(gòu)和可具體計(jì)算的功能，又可以利用excel 中的模擬和求解規(guī)劃功能，全面透徹地應(yīng)用決策樹來分析驗(yàn)證企業(yè)投資決策的案例。通過闡述企業(yè)投資決策分析及決策樹分析的基本理論，分別對企業(yè)的投資決策、投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及企業(yè)決策分析方法做了相應(yīng)的說明，以企業(yè)投資決策的案例說明決策樹分析法在企業(yè)投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析中的運(yùn)用，在決策樹分析后加入了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析，并結(jié)合 excel 輔助軟件水