【正文】 研究工作起步較晚， 20 世紀(jì) 30 年代才算開始，一直到 70 年代這段時(shí)間內(nèi)主要研究的是地震災(zāi)害。東南部地區(qū)主要是小規(guī)模滑坡，情況相對(duì)好些。我國(guó)大地構(gòu)造和地形的基本輪廓就是在這兩種活動(dòng)構(gòu)造帶匯聚和西升東降的地勢(shì)反差下形 成的，這種地勢(shì)也是我國(guó)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害種類繁多的根本原因。 國(guó)內(nèi)外地質(zhì)災(zāi)害研究現(xiàn)狀 我國(guó)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害相關(guān)研究 地質(zhì)災(zāi)害定義為一種會(huì)對(duì)人類的生命財(cái)產(chǎn)以及生活環(huán)境造成破壞的自然災(zāi)害，其主要 成因有兩個(gè)，一個(gè)是地質(zhì)動(dòng)力活動(dòng)或者地質(zhì)環(huán)境異常變化，另一個(gè)是人為因素的作用。我國(guó)地震多發(fā)，大多地震都是震源淺、強(qiáng)度大。從電力系統(tǒng)的這些特點(diǎn)出發(fā)，對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的基本要求是： （ 1） 保證 安全可靠的供電；（ 2）要有合乎要求的電能質(zhì)量；（ 3）要有良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)性；（ 4）盡可能減小對(duì)生態(tài)壞境的有害影響。 1 Abstract Nowadays, the power system has bee an important part of large plex lifeline systems, the safe and stable operation of power system directly affect the country’s production and people’s daily the electric power system is seriously influenced by environmental factors for its directly exposure in natural conditions. In additions,our country is the state which has lots of geological disasters that impact of the large scope sate. The incidence of various types of natural disasters is directly threatening the safe operation of grid system,which may make power failure or power system collapse,what’s more,it even threat to people’s life and property safety and social. Such as the Wenchuan earthquake in 20xx, not only make the Sichuan power system severely damaged, also killed tens of thousands of people. It has positive effects on safe and stable operation of grid system while enhancing the monitoring and warning system in order to reduce the influence of geological disasters. It is also conductive to reduce the economic and material losses both of individuals and collectives. Therefore, it has a very important theoretical significance to research on monitoring of geological disasters and on damage assessment of power system in geological disasters. The influence of geological disasters on the power system can be unpredictable, if suffers large geologic disaster in the on preventive measures, it may cause catastrophic damage to the power system. Which not only seriously affect the normal production and the relief work, but also the high equipment maintenance cost and the huge losses caused by power outage. Recently, it is a hot topic to research on monitoring and warning of natural disaster in domestic and international disaster. But in the power system, this research is clearly of great importance. Fortunately, the research on this aspect has obtained more achievements. However, due to the plexity of geological hazards inherent uncertainty and hazard factor on power grid disaster process, we still need further study. The paper basis on previous studies, mainly on the earthquake, collapse, landslide, and debris flow these four kinds of geological disaster to study and analysis. Combined with the domestic and international research status, the use of traditional risk assessment index system and constructs the model of fault tree analysis method by using the fault tree, respectively, of plant level, distribution level and equipment level on the electric power system,. At last, simulation and calculation of failure probability of the power system, then put forward prevention measures of the power system . 2 Key Words ： geological disaster electrical power system damage assessment fault tree analysis indicator system 目 錄 第 1 章 緒論 ................................................................. 3 國(guó)內(nèi)外地質(zhì)災(zāi)害研究現(xiàn)狀 .............................................. 3 我國(guó)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害相關(guān)研究 ........................................... 3 國(guó)外地質(zhì)災(zāi)害相關(guān) 研究 ........................................... 6 國(guó)內(nèi)外因地質(zhì)災(zāi)害引發(fā)的電力系統(tǒng)損毀事件 .............................. 6 國(guó)內(nèi)電力系統(tǒng)損毀事件 ........................................... 6 國(guó)外電力系統(tǒng)損毀事件 ........................................... 8 地質(zhì)災(zāi)害對(duì)電力設(shè)施影響的國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 .............................. 9 國(guó)內(nèi)研究現(xiàn)狀 ................................................... 9 國(guó)外研究現(xiàn)狀 .................................................. 10 本文研究?jī)?nèi)容 ....................................................... 10 第 2 章 電網(wǎng)的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害損毀性研究 ............................................ 12 電網(wǎng)的脆弱性研究 ................................................... 12 電力系統(tǒng)損毀評(píng)估思想 ............................................... 13 電力系統(tǒng)損毀評(píng)估指標(biāo) ............................................... 13 常用評(píng)估可能性指標(biāo) ............................................ 13 常用評(píng)估嚴(yán)重性指標(biāo) ............................................ 14 第 3 章 地質(zhì)災(zāi)害下電力系統(tǒng)損毀性分析計(jì)算 .................................... 16 電網(wǎng)運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估指標(biāo)計(jì)算 ........................................... 16 評(píng)估步驟 ...................................................... 16 評(píng)估指標(biāo)體系 .................................................. 16 電網(wǎng)損毀運(yùn)算實(shí)例 ................................................... 18 故障樹分析法計(jì)算 .............................................. 18 運(yùn)用故障分析法計(jì)算電網(wǎng)損毀可能性 .............................. 18 第 4 章 電力系統(tǒng)對(duì)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害的防治 ............................................ 23 防治地質(zhì)災(zāi)害措施 ........................................................................................................ 23 電 力系統(tǒng)防災(zāi)對(duì)策 ................................................... 23 電力系統(tǒng)傳統(tǒng)防震對(duì)策 .......................................... 23 現(xiàn)代電力系統(tǒng)防災(zāi)措施 .......................................... 24 相關(guān)建議 ........................................................... 25 電力系統(tǒng)防止災(zāi)害決策流程 ........................................................................................ 27 第 5 章 總結(jié)與展望 ..................................................................................................................... 29 總結(jié) ................................................................................................................................ 29 展望 ................................................................................................................................ 29 參考文獻(xiàn) ........................................