【正文】 pacity than at any time in American economic history. Okun (1974, 1975), on the other hand, refuted this claim on the grounds that energy, pared with other production inputs, constitutes only a relatively 39。 Economic growth。在這方面，隨之而來(lái)的能源需求增長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略必須進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。因此，存在于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，以協(xié)助將這些網(wǎng)絡(luò)，以提高他們有效地參與全球經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的繁榮和可持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)援助受助人的部分。這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體的不穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)，例如出口收入的變異規(guī)則產(chǎn)生如此巨大的金額從內(nèi)部人士透露的可能性。商業(yè)能源短缺的交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)癱瘓 ，破壞商業(yè)和工業(yè)能力，導(dǎo)致不理想的國(guó)內(nèi)家電消費(fèi)，這對(duì)產(chǎn)出，就業(yè)，收入和消費(fèi)帶來(lái)的束縛。這里的主要因素，由于這些國(guó)家的凈能源進(jìn)口國(guó)之一，是財(cái)政上的限制。然而，從其他經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(mén)一方面對(duì)生物質(zhì)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性需求，另一方面，消耗的速度加快，導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的能源短缺。盡管其巨大的商業(yè)性能源儲(chǔ)備（水電，原油，天然氣和煤炭）， percapitaenergy 消費(fèi)量位居世界最低 的。雖然吉爾施和沃爾特（ 1983）和佩里（ 1975年， 1977年）之 間有一個(gè)共識(shí)，對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論來(lái)解釋生產(chǎn)力趨勢(shì)的能力，他們不同意的能源價(jià)格對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。這個(gè)說(shuō)法，似乎 Rasche Tatom型的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)是不必要的，多余的。其他支持這一觀點(diǎn)。隱式，已被認(rèn)為是完美的要素替代能源。此功能包括一個(gè)能量除了確定常規(guī)的變量的變量以上。因此，他們已經(jīng)作出努力來(lái)發(fā)現(xiàn)能源和其他生產(chǎn)要素之間的確切關(guān)系，判斷是否能量補(bǔ)充或替代其他生產(chǎn)要素。 關(guān)鍵 詞： 能源，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，因果關(guān)系 由于日益認(rèn)識(shí)到能源的重要性，國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要確定能源和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。 本文探討的因果關(guān)系的方向之間的能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)（以本地生產(chǎn)總值及本地居民生產(chǎn)總值）以尼日利亞和譚坦桑尼亞為例。 雖然這種技術(shù)是有用的實(shí)證分析，因?yàn)闆](méi)有機(jī)制的存在表明變量之間的因果方向。發(fā)展中國(guó)家能源 與 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 的 因果關(guān)系 基于 坦桑尼亞和尼日利亞的案例研究 摘 要： 能源在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的確切作用是一個(gè)尚有爭(zhēng)議的辯論。 但是， 這限制了范圍的政策分析。 結(jié)果顯示了能源和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的因果關(guān)系。這已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致許多人質(zhì)疑傳統(tǒng)的新古典生產(chǎn)函數(shù)分析，其中土地，勞動(dòng)力和資本被確認(rèn)為生產(chǎn)的主要因素。這些知識(shí)將顯著影響能源政策的制定，除非解決能源在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的作用和意義還不明朗。他們能夠與美國(guó)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，不僅有能源價(jià)格上漲產(chǎn)生潛在的國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值下降的趨勢(shì)，但已經(jīng)有很多實(shí)際的輸出能力在任何時(shí)間，在美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)史。 1 假設(shè)替代系數(shù)的大小是這場(chǎng)辯論的一個(gè)重要考慮因素。佩里（ 1975， 1977）認(rèn)為，“這是很難相信，能源價(jià)格高企會(huì)影響生產(chǎn)率和產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)”，因?yàn)樗皇瞧渲械脑S多組件生產(chǎn)。 事實(shí)上，類(lèi)似的扣除已由吉爾施和沃爾特（ I983）。佩里（ 1975， 1977）認(rèn)為影響最小，吉爾施 Woiter（ 1983）認(rèn)為是“間接”的影響，其大小或幅度取決于政府政策的有效性。常規(guī)或生物質(zhì)能（主要是木材和木炭）占 70％以上的能源消耗總量，而在亞洲和拉丁美洲，此源帳戶(hù)分別只有 35％和 25％的（ Davidson， 1992）。同樣標(biāo)明相關(guān)的私人成本和社會(huì)成本，被稱(chēng)為第一次能源危機(jī)（ Mazava， 1981）。政策的兩難中心圓一個(gè)事實(shí)，即能源投入生產(chǎn)部門(mén)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)中是非常重要的 農(nóng)業(yè)，特別是工業(yè)部門(mén)。很明顯，從這個(gè)討論中，非洲不能住如此巨大的能量赤字，同時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)有意義的成長(zhǎng)和發(fā)展。因此，多邊和單邊的組織可以發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用，調(diào)動(dòng)了大量的投 資需要刺激撒哈拉以南的能源部門(mén)。在這方面，與能源投資的好處是相互的。否則，當(dāng)前和未來(lái)的增長(zhǎng)前景將受到能源短缺。 Causality The need to determine the relationship between energy and economic growth derives from the increasing realization of the importance of energy to the economic 4 development of nations. This has led many to question the conventional neoclassical production function analysis where land, labour and capital are recognized as the main factors of production. This analysis has been extended to include an energy variable. However, the magnitude of energy39。small cost share39。unwarranted39。 rather a divergence of findings are reported. Berndt and Wood (1975), Hudson and Jorgenson (1975) and Matsui et al, 1978 (as cited in Susuki and Takenaka (1981)) found energy and capital to be ple mentary while Griffin (1979) found energy and capital sub stitutable. However, looking at the type of data used (time series versus pooled data), the differences in results can be explained. Usually, time series analysis infer shortrun relationships and pooled data point to longrun situations. It can be argued therefore that energy and capital are plementary in the short run but bee substitutable in the long run. Developing countries In the case of the developing countries, a priori observation may suggest that the analysis of Okun, (1974, 1975) and that of(Perry 1975, 1977) apply, given the scale and size of the 39。surplus39。 Desai, 1986。 Griffin, 1979). Intuitively, and given the right institutions (technical and financial resources, investment in human capital, and the capacity for policy fomulation and implementation), the developed countries have successfully decoupled energy consumption trends from economic growth. These are the necessary prerequisites to factor substitution possibilities. The very absence of these favourable conditions in the developing countries largely explain their energy consumption intensity. The economies and energy sectors of Nigeria and Tanzania The economies of Nigeria and Tanzania typify those of the rest of subSaharan Africa. They are largely monocultural, relying on one or two primary modity exports. The agricultural sector is undeveloped and largely managed on a subsistence basis. This apart, the sector is characterized by low capital formation requiring food imports that are often used to augment falling domestic production. While Nigeria39。s (1969) causality test regresses a variable y on a lagged value of itself and another variable x. lfx is significant, it means that it explains some of the variance ofy that is not explained by lagged values ofy itself. This indicates that x is causally prior toy and said to dynamically cause or Granger cause y. The model can be specified accordingly as follows: The task of choosing the lead/lag length is arduous especially when the numbers of observations are relatively small. Given this fact, and in achieving covariancestationarity or white noise process, first difference was taken and used to detrend the data. Thus, Equation (1) is then rewritten as: and by analogy, For a unidirectional causality to exist from E to Y, the estimated coefficient on lagged E in Equation (2) should be significantly different from zero as a group ( ) and the set of estimated coefficients on lagged Y ( ) in Equation (3) should not be significantly different from zero. If the coefficients of lagged E and Y are significantly different from zero, ie in (2) and in (3), simultaneous causality is said to exist. On the other hand, where both sets of coefficients are not significantly different from zero, E and Y are said to be independent of each other. 12 Data used, lag/lead specification The period covered for Nigeria was between 196084, and 196081 for Tanzania. The data was obtained from the International Financial Statistics, Yearbook 1986。Grangercause39。. This will pound the problems of identifying the direction of causality, especially, a unidirectional one. Pierce and Hughes (1977) argue that the Granger type test cannot handle the problems of contemporaneous innovations39。s export proceeds went to oil imports in 1987, to the detriment of other equally vital sectors of the economy (Davi