【正文】 華東交通大學 畢業(yè)設計（論文） 題目： 蓄冷空調逐時負荷預測系統(tǒng) Load predicting system of The Holding Cold AirConditioning when chasing 摘要 蓄冷空調逐時負荷預測系統(tǒng)設計 近幾年來，隨著國家經濟的不斷發(fā)展，國家電力的負擔越來越大。隨著國家倡導建設節(jié)約型社會，蓄冷空調在我國 也得到了越來越廣泛的應用。 如何有效的利用蓄冷空調，確定第二天所需要的蓄冰量呢？這時，人們就非常希望能夠預測第二天蓄冷空調的負荷。如果能夠精確的預測建筑物的動態(tài)冷負荷，不僅可以更準確的幫助設計人員完成設計，更可以使設備控制人員根據(jù)預測的冷負荷確定系統(tǒng)的控制時間、方式以及盡早發(fā)現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)故障。這一點在蓄冷空調系統(tǒng)中尤為重要，因為每天晚上蓄冰量的多少將直接影響第二天整個系統(tǒng)的工作效率，并且是提高蓄冷空調系統(tǒng)經濟效益的重要途徑之一。所以，這里要解決的主要問題就是進行“精確預測”。 該預測系統(tǒng)采用的是人工神經網絡（ ANN）的 BP 算法。主要實現(xiàn)兩大塊功能。一是對未來一天外界環(huán)境參數(shù)及空調負荷的預測；二是根據(jù)當前時刻及外界參數(shù)計算負荷。該預測系統(tǒng)主要以 BP 算法為核心， 通過利用 BP 算法對以往的歷史數(shù)據(jù)的不斷學習訓練，而不斷去修改算法中的中間值 （達到預定的精度范圍） ，以達到精確預測和計算的目的。從而解決“精確預測”的問題來提高蓄冷空調的經濟效益。 關鍵字：蓄冷空調；人工神經網絡； BP 算法；預測 Abstract Load predicting system of The Holding Cold AirConditioning when chasing In recent years, The national power more and more burdener with the constant development of the national economy. The Holding Cold AirConditioning have increasingly broad applications in our country by the advocacy of national saving society. How to effective use of The Holding Cold AirConditioning, to ensure how much ice is store on the next day? At that time, it was very much like to be able to predict the next day the load of Holding Cold AirConditioning. If we can accurately predict the dynamics of the cold load building, not only can help the designers more accurate pletion of the design, but also to equipment control personnel determined on the basis of the projected cold load time control systems, methods and early detection system failures. This is particularly important in The Holding Cold AirConditioning system, because every night how much ice is store will directly affect the efficiency of the entire system on the second day, and airconditioning systems is one of the important ways to improve economic efficiency. Therefore, the main issue here is how to solve the precise forecast. The forecast system was used artificial neural work (Ann) BP algorithms. Achieve two main pieces of functionality. First, the next day outside of the environmental parameters and airconditioning load forecast。 Second, account the load of system under the current moment and external parameters. The forecast system mainly BP algorithm at the core, through to use the data of history to past BP algorithms continuous learning training and continuing to modify the algorithm of intermediate values (achieve predetermined precision scope), to achieve accurate forecast and calculation purposes. Thereby resolving the precise forecast to raise the economic benefits of The Holding Cold AirConditioning. Key words: Holding Cold AirConditioning； artificial neural work； BP algorithms；forecast 華東交通大學畢業(yè)設計 目 錄 1 引言 ..................................................................................... 1 蓄冷空調實時控制概述 .............................................................................. 1 人工神經網絡概述 ..................................................................................... 2 神經網絡的學習機理和機構 ........................................................................ 2 反向傳播 BP 模型 ...................................................................................... 4 BP 算法的數(shù)學表達 .................................................................................... 6 神經網絡的優(yōu)缺點 ..................................................................................... 7 C++語言概述及 VC++開發(fā)環(huán)境 ................................................................... 8 C++對面 向對象程序設計方法的支持 ........................................................... 9 使用 C++的原因 ....................................................................................... 10 VC++開發(fā)環(huán)境 ..........................................................................................11 SQL SEVER 數(shù)據(jù)庫 .................................................................................... 12 2 系統(tǒng)概論 ............................................................................ 15 設計“蓄冷空調逐時負荷預測系統(tǒng)”的意義 ......................................... 15 設計“蓄冷空調逐時負荷預測系統(tǒng) ”的目的 ......................................... 15 設計“蓄冷空調逐時負荷預測系統(tǒng)”要達到的功能要求 ..................... 15 設計“蓄冷空調逐時負荷預測系統(tǒng)”的指導思想 ................................. 15 設計該系統(tǒng)所要解決的主要問題 ............................................................ 15 3 系統(tǒng)需求分析 ..................................................................... 16 系統(tǒng)目標 ................................................................................................... 16 華東交通大學畢業(yè)設計 開發(fā) ........................................................................................................... 16 功能需求分析 ........................................................................................... 16 其他需求 ................................................................................................... 16 4 概要設計 ............................................................................ 17 任務概述 ................................................................................................... 17 系統(tǒng)總體設計 ........................................................................................... 17 系統(tǒng)模塊設計 ........................................................................................... 18 主控模塊設計 ......................................................................................... 18 算法模塊設計 ......................................................................................... 19 預測模塊設計 ......................................................................................... 20 功 率計算模塊設計 .................................................................................. 20 數(shù)據(jù)庫模塊設計 ...................................................................................... 22 5 詳細設計 ...........................