【正文】 大學本科畢業(yè)論文 基于變壓器缺陷數(shù)據(jù)的故障預測研究 BACHELOR39。S DEGREE THESIS OF WUHAN UNIVERSITY Research on the predicting of Power Transformer’s fault based on defect data College ： Subject ： Name ： Director ： June 20xx I 鄭 重 聲 明 本人 呈交的學位論文，是在導師的指導下，獨立進行研究工作所取得的成果，所有數(shù)據(jù)、圖片資料真實可靠。盡我所知，除文中已經(jīng)注明引用的內(nèi)容外，本學位論文的研究成果不包含他人享有著作權的內(nèi)容。對本論文所涉及的研究工作做出貢獻的其他個人和集體，均已在文中以明確的方式標明。本學位論文的知識產(chǎn)權歸屬于培養(yǎng)單位。 本人簽名： 日期： II 摘 要 電力變壓器是最重要的變電設備，在電力系統(tǒng)中處于樞紐地位，其運行狀態(tài)直接影響著整個電力系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性、安全性和可靠性。 變壓器一旦發(fā)生事故，造成的直接和間接的經(jīng)濟損失是巨大的。對電力變壓器的故障進行有效的預測，既可給維護人員提供必要的參考以避免維修不足或過度維修，又可以保證供電的可靠性和用戶的人生安全。 因此，對變壓器故障預測進行研究具有重要的理論意義和工程實用。 本文對電力系統(tǒng)中常用的油浸式變壓器，基于油中溶解氣體數(shù)據(jù)以及三比值故障判斷法進行故障進行預測。由于目前電力系統(tǒng)中主要采取某一天油中氣體進行當天的故障判斷，而連續(xù)一段時間的氣體采樣數(shù)據(jù)較少，所以本文選用 84年 93年的數(shù)據(jù)。另外，所選數(shù)據(jù)大多數(shù)呈現(xiàn)遞增形式，灰色理論 對遞增數(shù)列有較好的預測效果，而且灰色理論具有所需原始數(shù)據(jù)少、計算方法交單、預測精度高的特點，所以選擇灰色理論進行油中氣體數(shù)據(jù)的預測。 通過建立灰色預測模型，并結合三比值故障判斷法，建立基于油中溶解氣體數(shù)據(jù)的變壓器故障預測模型。 最后將預測結果與實際進行比較，得出設計結果并對不足之處提出進一步的研究方向。 關鍵詞： 變壓器；故障預測；灰色理論 III ABSTRACT As the most important substation equipment, power transformer plays all important role in the power system． It39。s states during operation directly affect the stability, safety and reliability of the whole power system． The failures of transformers can result in serious issues, such as service disruptions and severe economic losses． Therefore, effective fault prediction on the power transformer can provide maintenance personnel with the necessary reference to avoid undermaintenance or excessive maintenance， and can guarantee the power supply39。s reliability and user39。s safety as well． So, it has great theoretical significance and engineering practical value to research on the prediction of the faults in power transformer． In this paper, we research on the projection of the widely used oilimmersed transformer39。s fault based on the DGA data and three ratios fault diagnosis method. Since that we mainly use one day39。s date to diagnosis the transformer39。s fault nowadays, but continuous period of gas sampling data is less, so I use the data of year 1984 and year 1993. In addition, most forms of the selected data shows an increasing, while the gray theory has better prediction results for increasing numbers than other model, and gray theory has less raw data needed to calculate pay a single method to predict the characteristics of high precision, so I chose the gray theory to forecast oil gas data. Through the establishment of gray prediction model, and bined with three ratios fault diagnosis method to establish a transformer failure prediction model based on dissolved gas data. Finally, the predicted results are pared with the actual situation, obtained the inadequacies of design results and propose the further research directions. Key words: transformer。 fault prediction。 grey theory 目 錄 鄭 重 聲 明 ................................................................................................................. I 摘 要 ..................................................................................................II ABSTRACT ........................................................................................ III 第 1 章 緒論 .......................................................................................... 1 變壓器故障預測的研究背景及意義 .................................................................1 變壓器故障預測研究現(xiàn)狀 .................................................................................1 本文的主要工作 .................................................................................................5 第 2 章 變壓器故障分析 ........................................................................ 6 變壓器介紹 .........................................................................................................6 變壓器原理 ..................................................................................................6 變壓器分類 ..................................................................................................6 變壓器的基本結構 ......................................................................................6 變壓器的安裝方式 ......................................................................................7 變壓器故障分析 .................................................................................................8 結論 ...................................................................................................................13 本章小結 ...........................................................................................................15 第 3 章 變壓器油中溶解氣體與 故障的關系 ........................................ 16 變壓器油中溶解氣體的來源 ...........................................................................16 變壓器油中氣體特征 .......................................................................................16 過熱故障 ....................................................................................................16 放電故障 ....................................................................................................17 受潮 ............................................................................................................17 變壓器故障診斷的依據(jù) ...................................................................................18 變壓器內(nèi)部絕緣故障的三比值法 ...................................................................18 小結 ...................................................................................................................20 第 4 章 灰色 GM(1,1)預測方法 ........................................................... 21 灰色預測簡介 ...................................................................................................21 GM(1， 1)數(shù)據(jù)處理方法 ...................................................................