貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展(已修改)
2025-03-04 00:36 本頁面
【正文】 貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展TRADE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTTodaro, Chapters 1213Perkins, Chapters 191Trade Theory and Development ExperienceTodaro Ch. 122緒論 Introduction n 本講討論發(fā)展中國家 (LDCs or LDCless developed countries)對外貿(mào)易政策和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展議題，包括外貿(mào)如何影響經(jīng)濟(jì)成長和所得分配，外貿(mào)是否促使一個國家達(dá)到發(fā)展目標(biāo)， LDCs是否應(yīng)追求對外導(dǎo)向或?qū)?nèi)導(dǎo)向的外貿(mào)政策，或兩者兼具。n 每個國家情況不同，不能一概而定。 34雁行理論n 以日本為首，東亞四小龍等國家為輔。n 在日本之後，其他國家有如大雁成兩三排向前隨著飛行。5The Importance of International Trade and Finance國際貿(mào)易和金融的重要性 n Many LDCs rely heavily on exports (usually primary products)n Many LDCs also rely heavily on imports (typically of machinery, capital goods, intermediate producer goods, and consumer products)6Five Basic Questions about Trade and Developmentn How does international trade affect economic growth?n How does trade alter the distribution of ine?n How can trade promote development?n Can LDCs determine how much they trade?n Is an outwardlooking or an inwardlooking trade policy best?7貿(mào)易對發(fā)展的重要性 n LDCs出口趨勢和型態(tài)。 n 出口的重要性 n 需求彈性和出口盈餘不穩(wěn)定性 8The Importance of Trade for Development: A Statistical Reviewn LDC exports: trends and patterns9Table 1011Table 1213141516Fuel Export Countries1718投資與儲蓄關(guān)係n Y=C+I+XMn =GC+PC+GI+PI+XMn PS=YGRPC 私人儲蓄 , GR=Govt revenue 政府收入n GS=GRGC政府經(jīng)常帳餘額n I=PI+GI=GS+PS+(MX)=GS+PS+FSn FS=(PIPS)+(GIGS)n 貿(mào)易赤字＝民間超額投資＋政府總赤字（政府超額投資）192021The Importance of Trade for Development: A Statistical Reviewn LDC exports: trends and patternsn Importance of exports to different developing nations2223Figure 24The Importance of Trade for Development: A Statistical Reviewn LDC exports: trends and patternsn Importance of exports to different developing nationsn Demand elasticities and export earnings instability25The Terms of Trade and the PrebischSinger Thesisn Total export earnings depend on:– total volume of exports sold AND– price paid for exportsn Prebisch and Singer argue that export prices fall over time, so LDCs lose revenue unless they can continually increase export volumes n Prebisch and Singer think LDCs need to avoid a dependence on primary exports26貿(mào)易條件 Terms of Trade (TOT)n XPI/MPI 出口價格指數(shù) /進(jìn)口價格指數(shù)n 100 103 107 109 n 1
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