【正文】 Thinking about Growth Technieken van Strategische Analyse Prof. Wouter De Ploey I. Why grow II. The evolution of growth portfolios III. What great growers do Profitable growth drives principal business objectives Organisational vitality Competitive sustainability Shareholder value Job creation Valuecreating revenue growth drives principal business objectives. Growth is not an end in itself. ‘Growth is pure oxygen. It creates a vital, enthusiastic corporation where people see genuine opportunity. They take bigger chances. They work harder and smarter. In that way growth is more than our single most important financial driver, it’s an essential part of our corporate culture. It’s why so many talented leaders want to work for PepsiCo rather than lots of other fine corporations.’ Wayne Calloway, former PepsiCo CEO Growth drives anisational vitality I. Why grow II. The evolution of growth portfolios III. What great growers do Three key concepts Balancing growth across 3 Horizons Building businesses through a staircase of initiatives A pany as a portfolio of staircases Concurrent management across 3 Horizons Time frame (years) Profit Horizon 3 Create viable options Horizon 2 Build emerging businesses Horizon 1 Extend and defend core businesses 3 Horizons of growth Horizon 1 Extend and defend core businesses Horizon 2 Build emerging businesses Horizon 3 Create viable options Types of businesses Core businesses underpinning current profitability New businesses and extensions of existing businesses fuelling revenue growth Options to build future businesses Management imperative Unlock incremental growth, then manage for value as the business declines Exercise options, assemble required capabilities, and drive businessbuilding initiatives Source options (ideas, relationships, assets) for future growth and test viability of business concepts Primary focus Bottomline performance and profitability Topline growth and capital efficiency Future potential and robustness across multiple scenarios Balanced growth at CocaCola Amatil Time frame ? Australasia –1965 Australia (69) –1988 New Zealand (55) ? Western Europe –1982 Austria (42) –1995 Switzerland (35) Profit Year of entry (consumption of CocaCola Amatil products in litres per capita) Horizon 3 Create viable options Horizon 2 Build emerging businesses ? Eastern Europe – 1991 Hungary (30) – 1991 Czech Republic (14) – 1992 Slovakia (11) – 1994 Slovenia (25) – 1995 Poland (8) – 1995 Romania (15) – 1995 Croatia (14) ? Southeast Asia – 1991 Indonesia (2) – 1997 Philippines (15) ? Former Soviet republics –1994 Belarus (2) –1994 Ukraine (1) ? China/India –Option with Robert Kuok? –Option with San Miguel ? Other (., further franchises, smart cards, new products) Horizon 1 Extend and defend core businesses Financial characteristics Horizons 2 and 3: CocaCola Amatil example (Dec 96) Forecast cash contribution 1996 1996 A$ Millions 192 71 12 Forecast cash contribution 2023 1996 A$ Millions 334 727 228 Capex Low High Medium Real growth in precapex cash flow 1996–2023 55% 227% 911% Estimated market value 30% 50% 20% Time frame Profit Horizon 3 ? Former Soviet republics ? China/Asia ? Other (., further franchises, smart cards, new products) Horizon 2 ? Eastern Europe ? Indonesia Horizon 1 ? Australasia ? Western Europe Challenge of simultaneously managing 3 Horizons ? Profit ? ROIC ? Revenue ? NPV ? Option value ? Business maintainers ? Business builders ? Champions and visionaries ? Fully assembled capability platform ? Capabilities being acquired or developed ? Capability requirements may be unclear Metrics People Capabilities Horizon 1 Extend and defend core businesses Horizon 2 Build emerging businesses Horizon 3 Create viable options Profit Time frame Unsustainable patterns Weak Strong Strong, but under attack Running out of steam Ideas but not building businesses Failing to seed for the future Losing the right to grow Lots of exciting options but nobody building a business Building next generation of businesses, but not securing longterm future Overfocused on core business, restricting future prospects Excessive focus on growth at expense of core business Core business under serious threat with no emerging n