【正文】 Robert Fogel’s forecasting Chinese economy in 2040發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué) development economics講課人：李實(shí)本課程的結(jié)構(gòu)1． 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究范疇、方法和歷史演變1．1 研究范疇1．2 發(fā)展的測(cè)度1．3 研究方法1．4 歷史演變2． 發(fā)展與增長(zhǎng)理論2．1 增長(zhǎng)與發(fā)展的差異2．2 增長(zhǎng)理論： HarrodDmar model。 Solow model。 convergence: unconditional and conditional. 2．3 新增長(zhǎng)理論2．4 人口增長(zhǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展2．5 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與人類(lèi)發(fā)展3． 發(fā)展與收入分配3．1 收入分配的現(xiàn)實(shí)與理論3．2 收入決定機(jī)制與因素分析3．3 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與收入差距3．4 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與收入分配3．5 中國(guó)收入分配的變化趨勢(shì)4． 發(fā)展中國(guó)家中的貧困問(wèn)題4．1 絕對(duì)貧困與相對(duì)貧困4．2 貧困線的設(shè)定4．3 貧困標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的選擇：收入還是消費(fèi)4．4 貧困的度量：貧困發(fā)生率、貧困距和加權(quán)貧困距4．5 中國(guó)的貧困狀態(tài)5． 發(fā)展中國(guó)家的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)與人力資本5．1 勞動(dòng)剩余與兩部門(mén)模型5．2 勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)中工資決定機(jī)制5．3 勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)中歧視問(wèn)題5．4 中國(guó)農(nóng)民工的工資與歧視狀態(tài)的研究5．5 勞動(dòng)力流動(dòng)與城鄉(xiāng)差距5．6 教育、健康與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展6． 土地與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展6．1 土地產(chǎn)權(quán)與租賃制度6．2 土地租賃合同理論6．3 土地產(chǎn)權(quán)制度理論7． 資本市場(chǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展7．1 信貸市場(chǎng)的不完善性7．2 農(nóng)村信貸市場(chǎng)的功能與發(fā)展7．3 非正規(guī)信貸市場(chǎng)7．4 資本市場(chǎng)的制度與信貸市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展8． 保險(xiǎn)與發(fā)展8．1 保險(xiǎn)的功能8．2 完善的保險(xiǎn)模型8．3 保險(xiǎn)的局限性：信息的不對(duì)稱(chēng)性8．4 保險(xiǎn)的執(zhí)行困難9． 國(guó)際貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展9．1 國(guó)際貿(mào)易的基本理論9．2 比較優(yōu)勢(shì)理論9．3 世界貿(mào)易格局9．4 貿(mào)易政策和發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略10． 制度與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展10．1 新制度經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的啟示10．2 政府與市場(chǎng)的作用10．3 經(jīng)濟(jì)改革與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展11． 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的未來(lái)方向11．1 理論還是經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究？11．2 中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的經(jīng)驗(yàn)如何上升到一般的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展理論1． 發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究范疇、方法和歷史演變 研究對(duì)象（DE是什么）What is economic development? (1) Economic development is the development of economic wealth of countries or regions for the wellbeing of their inhabitants.(2) The process whereby the real per capita ine of a country increases over a long period of time, subject to the stipulations that the number of people below an absolute poverty line does not increase and that the distribution of ine does not bee more unequal. (3) Economic development is a means to make mass people out of poverty. What development economics studies? DE studies the economic structure and behavior of the poor (less developed) countries (Lewis, 1984). Development Economics (DE) studies the economic transformation of developing countries (Debraj Ray, 1998). The major task of DE is to explore the possibilities of emancipation from poverty for developing economies (Yujiro Hayami, 2001). DE is about the big issues: how economies and societies grow and change (N. Stern, 2001). Backward ? underdevelopment ? less developed countries ? poor countries emergent countries ? developing economies.  研究?jī)?nèi)容（研究什么）(1) 理解現(xiàn)在世界各國(guó)發(fā)展的不平衡性。(2) 理解發(fā)展中國(guó)家現(xiàn)在的問(wèn)題需要理解發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn)，具有比較的意義。(3) 對(duì)前人的發(fā)展理論要加以研究。(4) 發(fā)展涉及到很多層面， 發(fā)展的測(cè)度（measurement of development）GDP or GDP per capita 是否是衡量發(fā)展程度的最好指標(biāo)？ 它在國(guó)際比較中的缺陷: 發(fā)展中國(guó)家GDP低估的問(wèn)題； PPP方法來(lái)修正GDP； 人類(lèi)發(fā)展指數(shù)（HDI）的意義和應(yīng)用。China’ rank of HDI in the world, 19702010 研究方法(1) 理論研究與經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究（theoretical and empirical approach） (2) 發(fā)展微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與發(fā)展宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（development microeconomics and development macroeconomics）(3) 純粹的經(jīng)濟(jì)分析還是多學(xué)科研究 歷史演變(1) 古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是當(dāng)時(shí)的發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)(2) 在20世紀(jì)40年代后期，現(xiàn)代發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)形成。Capital accumulation, as the necessary requirement, was the central focus of the models. The HarrodDomar equation, although originally formulated for conditions of full growth in an industrial economy, was applied to estimate capital requirements in developing countries. Other early models of development strategy also featured capitalaccumulation: Rostow39。s stages of growth, 1. Traditional society 2. Preconditions for takeoff 3. Takeoff 4. Drive to maturity 5. Age of High mass consumption Nurkse39。s balanced growth, The theory hypotheses that the government of any underdeveloped country needs to make large investments in a number of industries simultaneously. This would consequently enlarge the market size and provide an incentive for the private sector to invest.RosensteinRodan39。s external economies and big push,This theory is an investment theory which stresses the conditions of takeoff. The argumentation is quite similar to the balanced growth theory but emphasis is put on the need for a big push. The investments should be of a relatively high minimum in order to reap the benefits of external economies. Only investments in big plexes will result in social benefits exceeding social costs. High priority is given to infrastructural development and industry, and this emphasis will lead to governmental development planning and influence.Lewis39。s unlimited supply of labor and dualsector modelThe process of economic growth is inextricably linked to the growth of capitalist surplus, that is as long as the the capitalist surplus increases, the national ine also increases raising the growth of the economy. The increase in capitalist surplus is linked to the use of more and more labor which is assumed to be in surplus in case of this model. This process of capital accumulation does e to an end at some point. This point is where capital accumulation catches up with population so that there is no longer any surplus labor left.PrebischMyrdalSinger hypotheses about terms of trade and import substitutionThe thesis postulates that terms of trade, between primary products and manufactured goods, deteriorate in time. Countries that export modities (developing countries) in time would import fewer manufactured goods relative to a given level of exports.Leibenstein39。s critical minimum effort thesis,Critical minimum effort theory is one of the balanced growth theories. It talks about how a minimum amount of push is required by an economy for it to be set on the path of development. This push can be in the form of investments. The minimum amount of effort that is required is critical for the economy to move towards development hence this theory is called critical minimum effort. Because of the high population in underdeveloped countries the capital accumulation and labour supply are not sufficient to increase the per capita ine.Chenery39。s twogap model.Twogap model (Twogap Model), is the developing countries to achieve the savings gap and foreign exchange gaps in the theory of the equilibrium model. The model is through the use of external resources in developing countries, to play the role of government in the same time, ad