貴金屬投資技術(shù)分析英文版(2)(已修改)
2025-05-12 12:09 本頁面
【正文】 Michael J. Mauboussin Chief Investment Strategist Legg Mason Capital Management Long Term Investing in a Short Term World... It’s as Easy as PIE Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 2 PIE P I E sychology ncentives xpectations Not Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 3 Agenda 1. The Barriers ? Psychology ? Incentives 2. The Evidence ? Corporations ? Investors/Investment managers 3. The Solution ? Social context ? A look at winners ? Time arbitrage Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 4 Barriers to Long Term Thinking Phenomenon Effect Availability bias Accounting versus economic focus Recency bias Betting on what has worked Stress Creates a shortterm focus Agent/principal shift Agency costs Incentives Psychology Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 5 Corporations Source: Brian J. Hall and Jeffrey B. Liebman, “Are CEOs Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?” NBER Working Paper 6213, October 1997。 “2022 CEO Compensation Survey and Trends,” Wall Street Journal/Mercer Human Resource Consulting, May 2022。 LMCM estimates. 1985 2022 CEO Compensation 1995 Tied to stock market 43% Tied to stock market 1% Tied to stock market 60% Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 6 Corporations “Earnings are in a class by themselves” Four reasons: ? Investors need a simple metric to summarize performance ? EPS gets the broadest media distribution and coverage ? Focus on EPS makes the analyst’s job easier ? Analysts evaluate a firm’s progress based on making EPS Source: John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal, “The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,” NBER Working Paper, March 2022. Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 7 ? Firms are willing to sacrifice economic value in order to meet a shortrun earnings target ? The preference for smooth earnings is so strong that 78% of surveyed executives would give up economic value in exchange for smooth earnings! EPS Obsession Source: John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal, “The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,” NBER Working Paper, March 2022. Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 8 Investors From Principals to Agents Individual investors Financial institutions 1950 2022 Source: John Bogle, “The Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic,” Speech: 60th Anniversary Conference of the Financial Analys
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