【正文】 河南心連心化工有限公司年產(chǎn) 30 萬噸尿素工程項目可行性研究 摘要 ： 可行性研究是在 進(jìn)行項目決策前，運用多種工具和科學(xué)方法對項目進(jìn)行全面的細(xì)致的論證的一種科學(xué)方法。它是一個企業(yè)（或項目）提高項目成功率減少決策失誤的重要途徑 ，特別是在市場形勢瞬息萬變和國家宏觀調(diào)控越來越嚴(yán)厲的情況下。在 進(jìn)行項目決策前進(jìn)行全面細(xì)致地可行性研究，能夠有效規(guī)避可能出現(xiàn)的各種不確定因素的影響，進(jìn)而降低項目的實施風(fēng)險。因此，在項目擬建前應(yīng)該注重可行性研究。 在本文的緒論部分分析了選題的依據(jù)與意義以及可行性研究理論的依據(jù)，對項目可行性研究的主要 內(nèi)容及各種方法進(jìn)行了介紹。第一章到第六章為心連心化工年產(chǎn) 30萬噸尿素項目可行性分析報告。第一章進(jìn)行了項目最重要的風(fēng)險分析，詳細(xì)分析了技術(shù)、市場、投資各方面的風(fēng)險；第二章是對項目效益的分析；第三章是對市場的預(yù)測；第四章是對建廠條件和廠址方案選擇的理論支持；第五章是對項目投資的估算和資金籌措的選擇；第六章是本項目的財務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)評價和社會效益評價。 關(guān)鍵詞 ：可行性研究 ,尿素項目 ,風(fēng)險分析 ,財務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)評價 Feasibility study of 30 thousands tons AmmoniaAlkali Project of Xin Lian Xin chemical Group Abstract: Feasibility research is a scientific method which using varies tools and scientific ways to make detailed prehensive argument for the project before making the final decision. It is an important way for an enterprise (or a project) to improve the rate of success and to reduce the decision mistakes, especially under the situation of rapidly changing market and the prominent of the national macrocontrol. Taking prehensive feasibility research before making the decision for the project can effectively avoid affection from uncertain elements, thus can reduce the impletion risk of the project. Therefore, we should focus on feasibility research before the proposal of the project. In the introduction part, this article analyzes the basis and significance of topics and theoretical basis for the feasibility study, and the main contents and various methods are introduced. Chapter one to Chapter six is feasibility analysis report for 30 million tons of urea production of Xin Lian Xin chemical plant. In the first chapter, it makes analysis for the most important risks for project, and made detailed analysis on all aspects risks in technology, market and investment. The second chapter is the analysis of project benefits。 The third chapter is forecasts of the market。 The fourth chapter is the construction conditions and site selection of the theoretical support for the program。 The fifth chapter is the estimation of project investment and financing choices。 The sixth chapter is the financial evaluation of economic evaluation and social benefits of the project. Key words: feasibility study, urea project, risk analysis, financial economic evaluation 目 錄 摘要： .................................................................. I Abstract: .............................................................. II 1 緒論 ................................................................. 1 選題的依據(jù)與意義 ................................................ 1 企業(yè)概況 .................................................. 1 項目提出的背景 ............................................ 1 項目建設(shè)的必要性和意義 .................................... 3 理論綜述 ........................................................ 4 可行性研究概述 ............................................ 5 可行性研究的階段劃分 ...................................... 5 可行性研究報告的主要內(nèi)容 .................................. 6 2 市場分析 ............................................................. 8 尿素市場 ........................................................ 8 國外尿素市場 .............................................. 8 國內(nèi)尿素市場 .............................................. 9 尿素價格分析 ................................................... 11 國內(nèi)外尿素價格 ........................................... 11 尿素價格的確定 ........................................... 15 3 建廠條件和廠址方案 .................................................. 16 廠址選擇 ....................................................... 16 建廠條件 ....................................................... 16 廠址位置及交通條件 ....................................... 16 自然條件 ................................................. 16 場地濕陷 性評價 ........................................... 18 結(jié)論與建議 ............................................... 18 4 投資估算和資金籌措 .................................................. 19 投資估算 ....................................................... 19 建設(shè)投資估算 ............................................. 19 建設(shè)期利息 ............................................... 19 固定資產(chǎn)投資估算 ......................................... 19 流動資金估算 ............................................. 19 項目總投資 ............................................... 19 投資分析 ................................................. 20 資金來源 ....................................................... 20 資金運用計劃 ................................................... 20 5 財務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)評價及社會效益評價 .......................................... 20 綜合技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo) ............................................... 20 產(chǎn)品成本和費用估算 ............................................. 22 基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù) ................................................. 22 產(chǎn)品成本及費用估算 ....................................... 22 財務(wù)評價 ....................................................... 23 評價依據(jù) ................................................. 23 評價方法 ................................................. 23 不確定性分析 ............................................. 24 技術(shù)風(fēng)險 ....................................................... 26 市場風(fēng)險 ....................................................... 26 投資風(fēng)險 ....................................................... 26 6 結(jié)論 ................................................................ 27 參考文獻(xiàn) ............................................................... 28 附 錄 ................................................................. 30 附 錄 1： 英文原文 .................................................. 30 附 錄 2： 中文譯文 .................................................. 35 1 緒論 選題的依據(jù)與意義 可行性研究是企業(yè)（或項目）提高規(guī)避風(fēng)險能力的重要途徑，特別是在當(dāng)下市場變化比較大和國家宏觀調(diào)控日趨嚴(yán)厲的情況下，在項目建設(shè)前進(jìn)行全面、細(xì)致的可行性