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2024-11-16 04:25 本頁面
【正文】 n thinking about risk response plans, keep in mind that risk outes generally fall into three categories: * Known risks with predictable outes * Known risks with uncertain outes * Unknown risks with unpredictable outes These are fairly straightforward. A known risk is something you know has the potential to happen. The term predictable outes implies you know with reasonable certainty what the impacts and outes of the risk events would be if they occurred. Unpredictable outes are impacts and consequences of the risk event that aren’t fully identified or known. Let’s use a simple example to explain each of these outes. You’ve decided to paint your garage door this weekend. One risk that could keep you from pleting this project is the weather. No problem—you cruise the Inter and check out the local forecast, which predicts clear and sunny skies, with little possibility of showers. You have the means to learn about the weather (the Inter site) and to determine the certainty of the impact (a 10 percent chance of showers). That means you know, with predictable certainty, that this risk has a low chance of occurring. Known risks with uncertain outes are more difficult because, well, their outes aren’t certain. However, the amount of uncertainty could vary. You may, for example, know it’s going to rain but not know when it’ll start or how long it’ll continue. When you’re facing project risks with uncertain outes, I remend learning everything you can about the risk and its possible impacts. (Since the impacts are unpredictable, this isn’t always possible.) You should interview stakeholders, research past projects, and try to move as far from the uncertainty end of the spectrum as you can. The more you know, the better. The last bullet listed previously, unknown risks with unpredictable out es, says you don’t know about the risk and you don’t know about its impacts. It’s an unknown risk with an unknown oute. Suppose you’re happily painting away and are threequarters finished when a flock of geese happens to fly right over your house. You guessed it. An unknown risk with an unpredictable oute has occurred. Many project decisions are made without benefit of knowing all the facts, and risk analysis is no exception. Risk, after all, is primarily about uncertainty. Analyzing the risks tells you about the possible outes for the risk, and the response plan addresses how to deal with those outes. The greater your certainty of the oute, the easier it will be to develop response plans. For example, if you know rain is a certainty on the day you’re planning on painting the garage, you can devise response plans that are fairly precise. You could postpone the painting to another day and sweep the garage floor instead. Or, perhaps you know with reasonable certainty that the rain is ing but won’t start until ea
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