財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告的決策有用性-文庫吧
2024-12-22 22:42 本頁面
【正文】 評(píng)估 P(H)= 自己評(píng)估 P(L)= 39 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory P(H)= P(L)= 在沒有獲得其他 信息的情況下， 會(huì)怎么選擇？ 債券??！ 310 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory ? 假定該投資人沒有匆忙作出決策，而是耐心等待被投資企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表的發(fā)布，而且企業(yè)披露了“好消息”（ GN） % 311 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory = = = P(L) —— 低盈利能力的先驗(yàn)概率 = 312 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory 313 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory P(GN/H) P(BN/H) P(GN/L) P(BN/L) 314 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory P(GN/H) P(BN/H) P(GN/L) P(BN/L) 315 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory ?例 32 Consider an investor with $10,000 to invest in one of the following mutually exclusive acts: a1: buy shares of x Ltd. For $10,000 a2: buy Canada Savings Bonds （ CSB, Interest rate 10%） for $10,000 Let there be 3 “states of nature”: θ1: shares fall 10% in market value θ2: shares hold steady θ3: shares rise 80% 316 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory Payoff Table Oute θ1 θ2 θ3 a1 1000 0 8000 a2 1000 1000 1000 P(θ1) = .05 P(θ2) = .70 P(θ3) = .25 Prior Probabilities 317 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory Assume the investor uses expected moary value as a decision criterion (EMV) EMV (a1): (.05)(1000) + 0 + .25(8000) = 1950 EMV (a2): (.05)(1000) + .70(1000) +.25 (1000) = 1000 Therefore, if investor acts now, should take a1. But: May be worthwhile to secure additional information. 318 2022/2/3 SinglePerson Decision Theory Think of the financial statements of X Ltd. as a
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