【正文】 Project Selection Method 方法： 1. 效益測量法（ Benefit measurement methods） Economic Model, scoring model,… 2. 約束優(yōu)化法（ Constrained optimization methods) Mathematical Model,… 決策模型 Decision Model: General Techniques(decision trees, forced choice…) Specific Techniques(Analytic Hierarchy Process, Logical Framework Analysis,…) Apply plex project selection criteria in a Sophisticated mode?separate project phase (Feasibility Study phase) Decision Model By Dai Lian Page28 贏利能力的計算（ Profitability Calculation） ?投資報酬率 ( ROI )=Operating ine/Investment ?現(xiàn)值 (PV) = FV/ (1+r)n ?凈現(xiàn)值 (NPV) ?內(nèi)部收益率 (IRR) 使投資現(xiàn)值之和等于收入現(xiàn)值之和的折現(xiàn)率。 ?回收期（ Payback period） By Dai Lian Page29 項目章程 Project Charter PMBOK 定義： A document that formally authorizes a project. 內(nèi)容： 1. Officially establishes the project. 2. Assign the project manager and authorizes the use of anization’s resources to acplish project activities. 3. Provides a general description of project objective and business reason for project. 問題： 以下哪個是銷售方（ seller）的項目章程？ 1. Contract 3. Statement of requirement 2. Scope statement 4. Statement of Objective By Dai Lian Page30 項目經(jīng)理的指派 PMBOK Project Manager’s Assignment 項目可行，越早越好。 最遲不得晚于 Execution. Preferable早于項目計劃編制完成前。 問題：以上哪個最好？ One answering principle, only choose the best fit answer. By Dai Lian Page31 范圍說明 Scope Statement PMBOK Provides a documented basis for 1. Making future project decision 2. Confirming or developing mon understanding of project scope among the stakeholders. Will be revised or refined to reflect approved scope changes. Includes or reference to: 項目論證（ Project justification） – Business needs。 a basis for tradeoffs. Project’s product – product description() Project deliverables – a list of summary level Subproducts. Project objectives – quantifiable criteria to measure success at least: Cost Schedule Quality SMART Objective By Dai Lian Page32 Involves subdividing the major project deliverables or subdeliverables ?smaller ?more manageable units Until sufficient detailed defined deliverables to Support developing Activity. 分解 Deposition PMBOK Step 1: 識別主要可交付成果 Identify major deliverables Step 2: Decide if adequate cost and duration estimate can be developed Step 3: Identify constituent ponents (組成元素 ) Step 4: Verify the correctness By Dai Lian Page33 工作分解結(jié)構(gòu) WBS PMBOK 面向可交付成果而對項目元素的分組，它組織并定義了整個項目范圍。 Deliverableoriented, Not activity oriented. Work not in WBS is outside scope of project. Unique identifier? Code of account Work package? Lowest level item of WBS ? Can be deposed in a Subproject WBS. ? some books: 80 hours. WBS dictionary: work ponent descriptions. typically include: work package, schedule dates, Cost budget, staff assignment… By Dai Lian Page34 工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)與其他結(jié)構(gòu)的區(qū)別 PMBOK CWBS(Contractual WBS)：合同工作分解結(jié)構(gòu) 定義賣方提供給買方報告的層次，不如 WBS詳細(xì)。 OBS(Organization breakdown structure)：組織分解結(jié)構(gòu) 顯示工作被分配到組織單元。 RBS (Resource breakdown structure)：資源分解結(jié)構(gòu) OBS的一種變異，將工作元素分配到個人。 BOM (Bill of Material)：材料清單 制造產(chǎn)品所需零部件等的分級層次。 PBS (Project breakdown Structure) ：項目分解結(jié)構(gòu) 即 WBS，用于某些將 BOM稱為 WBS的領(lǐng)域。 By Dai Lian Page35 范圍核實 Scope Verification PMBOK 是項目干系人正式接受（ Formal Acceptance）項目的過程。 需要審查 Deliverables和 Work results，以確保正確圓滿完成。 項目提前終止，則應(yīng)對項目完成程度建立文檔。 注意區(qū)別：范圍核實與質(zhì)量控制。 范圍核實：關(guān)心工作結(jié)果的“接受 Acceptance” 質(zhì)量控制：關(guān)心工作結(jié)果的“正確性 Correctness” Inspection= Review, product reviews, audits, walkthrough By Dai Lian Page36 變更申請 Change Request PMBOK 多種形式： oral/written, direct/indirect, externally/internally initiated, legal/optional 但是，必須是正式的（ Formal） 引起變更申請的原因： 1. 外部事件 2. 定義 Product scope 時的錯誤或遺漏（ error/omission） 3. 定義 Project scope 時的錯誤或遺漏（ error/omission） 4. Valueadding change (尤其在 Optional時 ) 5. Risk?contingency plan or workaround plan.() By Dai Lian Page37 Activity Definition 活動定義 PMBOK 分解 (Deposition )：將工作包細(xì)分為：更小、更易于管理的活動（ Activity）。 與范圍定義中分解的區(qū)別 : Output 不同： deliverable / activity. 活動清單（ ） 項目執(zhí)行的 所有活動 。 WBS的延伸。 每個活動要有描述。 WBS更新（ ）。 又叫精細(xì)化 Refinement. By Dai Lian Page38 Dependencies 依賴關(guān)系 PMBOK ? Mandatory 強(qiáng)制 ?Often involve physical or technological limitations (based on the nature of work being done) ?也叫硬邏輯，硬依賴關(guān)系。 ? Discretionary 任意 ? Best practice ? 軟邏輯 Soft Logic: desirable and customary (based on experience) ? 優(yōu)先 Preferential: preferred or mandated by a customer (also, need of the project sponsor) ? External ? Project activity with nonproject activity. By Dai Lian Page39 前導(dǎo)圖法 PMBOK Precedence Diagramming Method AON (Activity on Node): Node=activity, Arrow=dependencies One time estimate Lead and Lag Four relationships: Finish to Start Finish to Finish Start to Start Start to Finish TASK1 TASK2 TASK1 TASK2 TASK1 TASK2 TASK1 TASK2 ES EF LS LF ES EF LS LF By Dai Lian Page40 箭線圖法 PMBOK Arrow Diagramming Method AOA (Activity on Arrow)： 雙代號網(wǎng)絡(luò)圖，活動在箭線上。 有虛擬活動 Dummy Activity: 一般用虛線表示 , 0 duration. No Lag One relationship: Finish to start S 1 2 3 4 E A B C D E F G By Dai Lian Page41 計劃評審技術(shù) PERT PMBOK Three time estimate 悲觀值 Pessimistic 最可能值 Most Likely 樂觀值 Optimistic Weighted Average=(Optimistic + 4*Most likely + Pessimistic)/6 Standard deviation(標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差 )=(Pessimistic Optimistic)/6 Beta Distribution Most Likely PERT Weighted Average By Dai Lian Page42 關(guān)鍵路徑法 CPM PMBOK One time estimate – Most likely Calculate forward pass amp。 backward pass Float/Slack 時差 Free float= Early Finish Early start of successor activity (不影響任何緊隨活動的 ES。 ) Total Float = Early finish – Late finish (不影響項目完工日期。 ) Critical Path Longest Shortest Zero