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【正文】 11,035. 24 18 Pr﹛ TI ≦ ( 25 – 15 ) = 10﹜ = ? E (TI) = Var (TI) = ? ? ? ??????? ????????? ? ??Pr﹛ Z ≦ ﹜ =( +) = ( ) 25 19 (a) 1 243 567A= 5B= 6C= 5P1F = 7D = 4 G= 2H=6By lnspection CP = A → B → E → G → H (25) E=6 26 19 (b) Pr{ T≦ 28 weeks| CP=ABEGH }=？ Pr{ T≦ 32 weeks| CP=ABEGH }=？ Activities a m b μ =(a+4m+b)/6 σ2=(ba)2/36A 2 5 9 ? B 1 6 8 ? C 3 5 12 D 2 4 12 5 E 4 6 8 6 ? F 6 7 8 7 G 1 2 6 ? H 4 6 16 ? 427 19 (c) A → B → E → G → H Length = Σσ2ABEGH= = σ= Pr{Z≦ =}== ﹪ Pr{Z≦ =}== ﹪ Pr{T≦ X weeks| CP=ABEGH} = 95﹪ = ∴ X= weeks ?X Z≦ ? ? 28 20 (a) All PATHS︰ ACE ︰ 14 ADE ︰ 10 BDE ︰ 12 BFG ︰ 15 AFG ︰ 13 (b) BFG* (c) ? ? 152023 ??????? ????????? ??29 20 (d) ACE ︰ 14 σ2 = BFG ︰ 15 σ2 = (e) ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ? ? ? 15201420202320),(202121m ax????????? ????????? ??????????????????????????ACE ︰ 14, σ2 = ADE ︰ 10, σ2 = AFG ︰ 13, σ2 = BFG ︰ 15, σ2 = BDE ︰ 12, σ2 = Pr﹛ T ≦ 20﹜ = (.9972)()(.9982)(.981)() = 30 20 (f) (d) ∵ ACE (e) BFG are Independent ∴ (d) is likely to be the most accurate 31 21 From 3 CP = A – B – D – F – G 1243567B= 5C= 1P1=0E = 3D = 4F = 3H= 4G= 2303043878888128128 161712138383 1181291512151217171515A= 332 21 (a) Activities Time( μ ) σ σ 2A 3? B 5? 1 1C 1 D 4? E 3 F 3? G 2? H 4 Ans (a)σ / μ = ∴σ = μ(b) μ ABDFG = 17 σ 2ABDFG = Ans(b) 33 21 (c) Pr{ T ≦ 20 weeks| CP=A – B – D – F – G } = Pr{ Z ≦
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