全球石油市場(chǎng)最新趨勢(shì)-在線瀏覽
2024-09-26 01:42本頁(yè)面
【正文】 2 % 1 %0%1%2%3%4%5%…but since the start of the last bullish mega cycle in 1998, the correlation between oil prices and economic growth has strengthened … 但自 1998年上一輪大牛市啟動(dòng)以來(lái)，油價(jià)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系越來(lái)越密切 In the past, the linkage between oil prices and the global economy was weak… 過(guò)去，油價(jià)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)聯(lián)性很低 … 2. The economy has bee a big factor for oil prices 經(jīng)濟(jì)成為影響油價(jià)的重要因素 WTI GDP GDP r = r = 1998 2022 1997 1984 WTI 相關(guān)系數(shù) 高達(dá) Modest but steady recovery in store 經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇緩慢，但步伐穩(wěn)健 2101234562022 2022 2022 2022 (Source: IMF) % 高 低 中 Oct 2022 Forecast Jan 2022 Forecast . . 1年 2年 3年 4年 Dec 2022 – June 2022 2022年 12月 – 2022年 6月 = official end of recession (NBER) 衰退正式結(jié)束 . 4 4 2 8 % What’s different about the recovery this time? 這次復(fù)蘇有何不同？ The recession was longer amp。 recovery is slower 衰退 時(shí)間 更 長(zhǎng) ，程度更深；復(fù) 蘇較 慢 (Source: Wall Street Journal, 22 Sep 2022) July 1981 – Nov 1982 WSJ (Wall Street Journal) Sep 6, 2022 8 4 0 4 8 % 12 24 36 48 Jul 1981Nov 1982 Current Cycle: 當(dāng)前周期 2022 to mid2022 Months after start of Recession 衰退開(kāi)始后的時(shí)間（月） Cumulative change in jobs from start of each recession 每次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退開(kāi)始以來(lái)的累計(jì)就業(yè)率 What’s different about the recovery this time? Jobless Recovery 這次的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇有什么不同？ 失業(yè)型復(fù)蘇 失業(yè) 就業(yè) 1002003004005006007008009001000$ 3 0$ 2 0$ 1 0$0$10$20$30$40$503005007009001100130015001700$0$20$40$60$80$100$120$140$16019831994: r = 19992022: r = 自 Since 2022 r = ! WTI Samp。P500 WTI + Commodity amp。 600,000 b/d in 2022。 ultimately million ESPO產(chǎn)量現(xiàn)為 30萬(wàn)桶 /天；到 2022年為 60萬(wàn)桶 /天； 2022年達(dá) 100萬(wàn)桶；最終將達(dá)到 150萬(wàn)桶 600,000 b/d is critical threshold for benchmark status 60萬(wàn)桶 /天是成為基準(zhǔn)的臨界點(diǎn) ? ESPO therefore may bee a new Asian benchmark 因此 ESPO可能成為新的亞洲基準(zhǔn) ? Specs… 規(guī)格 ESPO pipelines to Pacific tanker terminal and to China 通往太平洋油輪碼頭及中國(guó)的 ESPO管線 Direct term exports of 300,000 b/d to China by end2022. 至 2022年底對(duì)華直接長(zhǎng)約出口 30萬(wàn)桶 /日 The price at Skovorodino for deliveries into China will be equal to the FOB Kozmino export price.
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