【正文】
口量 一般貿(mào)易占比21 供應(yīng)類比之進口盈利驅(qū)動:利好后市進口量 L L D P E 進口盈虧600070008000900010000110001202213000140001500016000200704200706200708200710200712200802200804200806200808200810200812200902200904200906200908200910200912201002201004201006201008201010元/ 噸 30 00 20 00 10 000100020223000元/ 噸內(nèi)外盤價差( 東南亞)東南亞丁烯基人民幣完稅價齊魯石化7 0 4 222 下游需求類比:需求表現(xiàn)弱于去年同期 L L D P E 需求01020304050607080200901200902200903200904200905200906200907200908200909200910200911200912201001201002201003201004201005201006201007201008201009 2 0 % 1 0 %0%10%20%30%40%塑料薄膜和農(nóng)膜產(chǎn)量(萬噸)塑料薄膜和農(nóng)膜產(chǎn)量同比增長率塑料制品產(chǎn)量同比增長率23 利潤率類比:供應(yīng)沖擊下新平衡區(qū)間匹配 L L D P E 生產(chǎn)利潤率 50 00500100015002022250030003500400020070820070920071020071120071220080120080220080320080420080520080620080720080820080920081020081120081220090120090220090320090420090520090620090720090820090920