【正文】 Iraq’s production and what will be the future of OPEC?? How can regional panies benefit from expected large investment requirements to rebuild Iraq and how will position themselves to capture the opportunity (., consolidation, alliances) ?KEY ISSUES FOR THE REGION FOLLOWING THE REBUILDING OF IRAQ ……which will have impact on other economies of the region FOR DISCUSSION THANK YOU 靜夜四無 鄰 ，荒居舊 業(yè)貧 。 Iraqi inflation rates%1996 1997 1998 1999 2023Exchange ratesIraqi Dinar per USD (black market rate) Huge budget deficits lead to “printing of money”BUT: Official exchange rate has been ID 0,31 to the USD since 19832023 2023 1996 1997 1998 1999 2023 2023 2023Current exchange rate ID 900 = 1 USDESTIMATEDEVELOPMENT OF INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATES – 1996 TO 2023Iraq has shown high inflation coupled with strong depreciation of the currencySource:EIU country dataExternal debt$bnIraqSyria JordanIran2304851091113% of GPD60130 Main causes of uncertainty are? Accrued interest? “Assistance” funds in IranIraq war? Claims following Gulf war 1991ESTIMATECOMPARISON OF EXTERNAL LIABILITIES 2023Iraq has significant liabilities and can be considered bankrupt*Estimates range from $ –$ Source:Reuters。 EIU country risk report on Iraq 20232023506025351980DEVELOPMENT OF IRAQ’S REAL GDP* 1980 TO 2023Over the past decade, Iraq’s real GDP fell by 50%…USD billionESTIMATE50%GDP estimates for 2023 subject to wide variation (USD 2460 billion)*Purchasing power parity method, current pricesSource:CIA World Factbook。? Rainfall: 155mm/year Source:Country Watch, CIA world fact bookCar transport? 39,000 km paved roads? 765,000 privately registered passenger cars? 266,000 privately registered trucksAir? Major airports in Baghdad, Basra and MosulThree major railway routes? Baghdad–Kirkuk–Irbil? Baghdad–Mosul–Yurubiyah? Baghdad–Maagal–Umm QasrTele? 3% peration, no mobile workUtilities ? 250 water treatment facilities? Power generation capacity of 9500 (pre 1990), currently at 1800MWGeography and climate InfrastructureThe majority of Iraq is characterized by desertOVERVIEW IRAQI GEOGRAPHY Source:World outlook, EIU country risk report Iraq? 50% of population younger than 16 years? 28% of population is labor force? Approximately 51% males? 75% of population resides in urban areas? There is an estimated 1m–2m Iraqi’s living in exile? Fertility rate –5 children per women? Adult literacy at 54%? million foreign workersKey facts1980 1985 1990 1995 2023 2023CAGR 3%DEVELOPMENT IRAQI POPULATION 1980 TO 2023Iraqi population amounts to more than 24 millionsMillionSource:CIA world fact book100% = OthersArabs Shia MuslimsKurds – Sunni Muslims46212Arabs – Sunni Muslims22ESTIMATEPOPULATION SIZE BY ETHNIC GROUPShia Muslims form Iraq’s ethnic majority%Adult literacy at 54% (vs. 75% in Iran)*From 6 to 23 years Source:EIU country profile Iraq 20231980 1998EDUCATION ENROLMENT RATIO FOR ALL AGES* 1980 VS. 1998An increasing number of children does not receive formal education ESTIMATESource:Country WatchProven reservesUnproven potentialTotalGas Trillion m3, 2023OilBillion barrels, 2023OVERVIEW OF IRAQ’S NATURAL OI