外文翻譯---電力系統(tǒng)負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)及方法-展示頁
2024-08-24 06:38本頁面
【正文】 cision, easy to test. Drawbacks: First, when the data the greater the degree of dispersion, namely, the greater the gray level data, prediction accuracy is worse。 (2) regression analysis can only be measured out the level of development of an integrated electricity load can not be measured out the power supply area of the loading level of development, thus can not be the specific grid construction plan. Time Series Analysis The load is on the basis of historical data, trying to build a mathematical model, using this mathematical model to describe the power load on the one hand this random variable of statistical regularity of the change process。 (2)assume that the development of load factors also determine the future development of load and its condition is unchanged or changed little. Select the appropriate trend model is the application of the trend extrapolation an important part of pattern recognition method and finite difference method is to select the trend model are two basic ways.A linear trend extrapolation forecasting method, the logarithmic trend forecasting method, quadratic curve trend forecasting method, exponential curve trend forecasting method, growth curve of the trend prediction method. Trend extrapolation method39。 two. the projection of load before the key is to determine the appropriate value of the product unit consumption or unit consumption. Judging from China39。 Product Unit Consumption。Load forecasting demand for electricity from a known starting to consider the political, economic, climate and other related factors, the future demand for electricity to make predictions. Load forecast includes two aspects: on the future demand (power) projections and future electricity consumption (energy) forecast. Electricity demand projections decision generation, transmission and distribution system, the size of new capacity。附 錄附錄A 外文資料Power system load forecasting methods and characteristics ofAbstract: The load forecasting in power system planning and operation play an important role, with obvious economic benefits, in essence, the electricity load forecasting market demand forecast. In this paper, a systematic description and analysis of a variety of load forecasting methods and characteristics and that good load forecasting for power system has bee an important means of modern management.Keywords: power system load forecasting electricity market construction planning1. Introduction power generating equipment determine the type of prediction (such as peaking units, base load units, etc.).Load forecasting purposes is to provide load conditions and the level of development, while identifying the various supply areas, each year planning for the power consumption for maximum power load and the load of planning the overall level of development of each plan year to determine the load position.2. load forecasting methods and characteristics of Unit Consumption ActOutput of products in accordance with national arrangements, planning and electricity intensity value to determine electricity demand. SubUnit Consumption Act。 and the value of Unit Consumption Act。s actual situation, the general rule is the product unit consumption increased year by year, the output value unit consumption is declining. Unit consumption method advantages are: The method is simple, shortterm load forecasting effective. Disadvantages are: need to do a lot of painstaking research work, more general, it is di
教學(xué)教案相關(guān)推薦
鄂ICP備17016276號(hào)-1