【正文】 過了《關(guān)于做好計(jì)劃生育工作的報(bào)告》[1]，強(qiáng)調(diào)在發(fā)展國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的前提下要合理的控制好人口發(fā)展的紅線，首次對人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的相互影響問題進(jìn)行探討與研究。對人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的歷史研究數(shù)據(jù)顯示，人口數(shù)量、結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展緊密相聯(lián)，且科學(xué)、合理的人口數(shù)量與素質(zhì)及環(huán)境是社會存在與發(fā)展的前提條件；人口結(jié)構(gòu)與數(shù)量對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展存在一定作用的推進(jìn)與延緩效果，綜合得出，國家經(jīng)濟(jì)要想得到長久、健康的可持續(xù)發(fā)展必須滿足與物質(zhì)建設(shè)相符合的人口狀況。 Ageing。 Finally, an empirical analysis of population structure and economic development is carried out.Keywords: second child policy。 Secondly, the evolution of the one child policy in China and are pared with those of the international related countries, on the relationship between the population and economic growth for indepth analysis, and also introduces the related theory。s economic development and policy with the United States, Japan, South Korea, France, Australia, the country is different, but generally is similar to that of the harvesting of demographic dividend has been economic growth, demographic dividend disappears will also face the effective labor population decline, the challenge of an ageing population, economic growth. When the population policy of how to develop, how to deal with population dividend dissipate after Labour shortages and slowing economic growth and a series of urgent problems facing the Chinese government, especially the policy of birth the focus of the future development direction is also our concern now, so we need to study international multinational to draw on China39。s economic and social effects of widerange, multilayer, and not directly impact on the social output, cannot directly affect the speed of economic development, but by other variables affect economic growth, through a series of economic variables interaction, will eventually cause the relevant economic consequences. Demographic changes with age is the main characteristics of the impact on the economic growth process are implemented through a series of conduction variables, direct acting conduction variables generally is closely related to population, mainly include employment, savings and consumption level, social security, industrial structure adjustment, the level of human capital accumulation, etc. In classic economic growth theory, there are many factors which can affect economic growth speed, the main factors including the change of labor supply quantity, rate, and human capital accumulation. Therefore, this article from the twochild policy of population structure and age structure perspective, bined with the ratio and the change of population age structure research on the impact of China39。關(guān)鍵詞：二胎政策；經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展；老齡化；利弊AbstractAs a key element of economic development, people are the focus of economic research. Facing the aging population of our country deepening, in 2015 China39。屆時(shí)人口生育政策如何制定、如何應(yīng)對人口紅利消散后勞動力短缺以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度減緩等一系列是擺在中國政府面前急需解決的問題，特別是生育政策的未來發(fā)展方向也是我們現(xiàn)如今所關(guān)心的重點(diǎn)，所以我們需要對國際多國進(jìn)行研究中從而得出對中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、人口政策有益的啟示和政策支持。因而，本文從二胎政策帶來的人口結(jié)構(gòu)及年齡結(jié)構(gòu)視角出發(fā)，結(jié)合撫養(yǎng)比與人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的變化情況研究對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長產(chǎn)生的影響及其作用機(jī)制。人口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變以年齡轉(zhuǎn)變是主要特征，對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響過程是通過一系列傳導(dǎo)變量實(shí)現(xiàn)的，直接作用的傳導(dǎo)變量一般是與人口緊密相關(guān)的，主要有就業(yè)水平、儲蓄率及消費(fèi)水平、社會保障、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、人力資本積累水平等。生育政策的變化會改變我國人口結(jié)構(gòu)，新生兒數(shù)量的增加以及老齡人口數(shù)量的增加會影響社會撫養(yǎng)比水平，人口紅利與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的潛在聯(lián)系與作用等問題再次成為研究的焦點(diǎn)。本論文屬于（請?jiān)谝陨戏娇騼?nèi)打“√”）學(xué)位論文作者簽名： 指導(dǎo)教師簽名：日期： 年 月 日 日期： 年 月 摘 要 人作為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵要素，是經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域研究的重點(diǎn)內(nèi)容。保密□，在 年解密后適用本授權(quán)書。 學(xué)位論文作者簽名： 日期： 年 月 日 學(xué)位論文版權(quán)使用授權(quán)書本學(xué)位論文作者完全了解學(xué)校有關(guān)保留、使用學(xué)位論文的規(guī)定，即：學(xué)校有權(quán)保留并向國家有關(guān)部門或機(jī)構(gòu)送交論文的復(fù)印件和電子版，允許論文被查閱和借閱。對本文的研究做出貢獻(xiàn)的個(gè)人和集體，均已在文中以明確方式標(biāo)明。分類號 學(xué)號 學(xué)校代碼 密級 碩士學(xué)位論文二胎政策對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響研究學(xué)位申請人：學(xué)科專業(yè)：指導(dǎo)教師：答辯日期：A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of EconomyThe impact of twochild policy on economic developmentCandidate : Major :Supervisor :Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyWuhan， Hubei 430074， P. R. China May， 2017獨(dú)創(chuàng)性聲明本人聲明所呈交的學(xué)位論文是我個(gè)人在導(dǎo)師指導(dǎo)下進(jìn)行的研究工作及取得的研究成果。盡我所知，除文中已經(jīng)標(biāo)明引用的內(nèi)容外，本論文不包含任何其他個(gè)人或集體已經(jīng)發(fā)表或撰寫過的研究成果。本人完全意識到本聲明的法律結(jié)果由本人承擔(dān)。本人授權(quán)華中科技大學(xué)可以將本學(xué)位論文的全部或部分內(nèi)容編入有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)庫進(jìn)行檢索，可以采用影印、縮印或掃描等復(fù)制手段保存和匯編本學(xué)位論文。不保密□。面臨我國人口老齡化程度不斷加深，2015年我國實(shí)施全面放開“二胎”政策，這是國家積極開展應(yīng)對老齡化的行動之一。全面二胎政策對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的影響是寬領(lǐng)域、多層位的，并不是直接作用于社會總產(chǎn)出，不能直接影響經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的速度，而是通過影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的其他變量，經(jīng)過一系列經(jīng)濟(jì)變量相互作用，最終引發(fā)相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果。在經(jīng)典的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論中，影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度快慢的因素很多，其中主要因素包括勞動力供給數(shù)量的變化、居民儲蓄率以及人力資本積累。盡管中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r和生育政策與美國、日本、韓國、法國、澳大利亞這些國家的有所不同，但大致相似的是在收獲人口紅利時(shí)都得到了經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速增長，人口紅利消失后同樣會面臨有效勞動人口比重下降、人口老齡化、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。首先，文章就二胎政策實(shí)施的背景條件進(jìn)行闡述，對研究的思路、邏輯結(jié)構(gòu)及意義展開論證與分析，對研究方法進(jìn)行了選用，對研究的主要內(nèi)容進(jìn)行了概括；其次，對我國生育政策的演變及與國際相關(guān)國家進(jìn)行了比較，對人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系展開了深入的分析，并對相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行了介紹；再次，重點(diǎn)對二胎政策實(shí)施的經(jīng)濟(jì)背景展開了細(xì)致的分析，對二胎政策開放實(shí)施的條件進(jìn)行理論上的論證，有針對性的對二胎政策對經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的綜合影響展開分析；最后，進(jìn)行了人口結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的實(shí)證分析。s implementation of full liberalisation twochild policy, which is one of the countries should actively carry out the aging of the action. Fertility policy changes will change the population structure in our country, an increase in the number of newborn and the increasing aging population will affect social upbringing than level, demographic dividend and potential links between economic development and function of problem once again bee the focus of research. Comprehensive twochild policy in the China39。s economic growth and its mechanism of action. Despite China39。s economic growth, population policy beneficial enlightenment and policy support. First of all, the article elaborates the background condition of twochild policy implementation, to expand the thinking, logic structure and significance of the study demonstration and analysis, the method of study on selection, summarizes the main content of research。 Again, focus on the economic background of the implementation of a twochild policy carried out detailed analysis, open to the twochild policy implementation conditions for the theoretical argument, targeted to the twochild policy to the economy, population structure, analyzes the prehensive effect of the industrial chain。 Economic development。 The pros and cons目錄摘 要 IAbstract II