【正文】 t parts of power system, it is the basic safe guarantee of the operation of power grid. The line of security and reliable operation in the power system has an important significance for transmission , the intelligent monitoring has bee particularly important. With the scale of power grid in our country expands gradually, the electric power work and the structure of the circuit are also being more and more plicated. But because of the long time influence by the thought of cheate is much more inportant than supply , our country related departments to the development of the electric power work and the lines did not attach enough importance, cause the transmission lines detection relatively order to improve the monitoring level of transmission lines and enhance the power system, the operation reliability of the transmission line operation management requirements of the department under the jurisdiction of the operation condition of the lines, have a whole understanding of the defects and faults in the hidden trouble and mastering of the lines, In order to overhaul and fully uping maintenance work well in human and material of preparation. Therefore, how to master the scientific transmission lines running state and arrange maintenance line management department has bee a very important subject. In this case, it is in urgent need to build intelligent monitoring system for transmission lines for running state of the realtime monitoring, transmission lines for the overhaul and reliable operation lay the solid foundation.However, transmission lines are scattered in the most of extensive areas, which is posed of test equipment, storage of parameters data is also very large, so for transmission line monitoring and maintenance workload is very big, in intelligent monitoring system how to deal with so much information is the key of the realization of the effective operation .In this paper, I present a new method using cloud mode1．This method monitors various activities on transmission lines（such as insulator’s filthying，ice 3over of transmission lines)，and processes those raw data of system resource，then puts processed data to cloud decision generator which decides control according to rules．This method can detect running situation on system level，work level and user level， the method has very highly detection ability and robust ability．Keywords：Transmission lines，Cloud Decision Generator，running situation4目 錄摘 要 ............................................................1ABSTRACT............................................................3第一章 緒論 .........................................................6 課題背景 ......................................................6 課題的提出 ....................................................7 國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 ................................................9 本文研究方法、研究思路及研究?jī)?nèi)容 .............................11第二章云模型概述 ...................................................12 云的定義 .....................................................12 云的數(shù)字特征 .................................................14 正態(tài)云模型 ...................................................15 云發(fā)生器 .....................................................17 正向云發(fā)生器 ..............................................18 一維云發(fā)生器的算法 ........................................18 云滴群對(duì)定性概念的貢獻(xiàn) ....................................19 基于云模型的不確定推理 .......................................21 單規(guī)則推理 ...............................................21 多規(guī)則推理 ...............................................23第三章智 能 輸 電 線 路 監(jiān) 測(cè) 系 統(tǒng) 的 總 體 設(shè) 計(jì) .............................24 狀態(tài)分析與故障診斷 ...........................................24 監(jiān)測(cè)量選擇問題 ............................................25 智能算法 ..................................................25 狀態(tài)監(jiān)測(cè)與剩余壽命預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù) ................................26 強(qiáng)化常規(guī)檢測(cè)手段 ..........................................265 智能輸電線路監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)系統(tǒng)構(gòu)成 ..................................26 智能輸電線路監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性與可靠性 ..........................27 電路設(shè)計(jì) ..................................................27 電磁兼容性 ................................................27 超低功耗技術(shù) ..............................................28 無線通信 ..................................................28 電磁兼容性 ................................................28 老化試驗(yàn) ..................................................29 現(xiàn)場(chǎng)維護(hù) ..................................................29第四章云模型在智能輸電線路監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)的應(yīng)用 ...........................31 利用云模型實(shí)現(xiàn)智能控制倒立擺 .................................31 基于云模型的入侵檢測(cè)方法 .....................................32 輸電線路導(dǎo)線舞動(dòng)在線監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng) .................................35 輸電線路雷電流波形實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng) ...............................39第五章結(jié)論和展望 ...................................................44參考文獻(xiàn) ...........................................................45致謝 ...............................................................496第 1 章 緒論 課題背景伴隨著人們對(duì)不確定性的逐步深入的研究，越來越多的科學(xué)家相信，這是因?yàn)椴淮_定性，整個(gè)世界才變得如此有魅力，因?yàn)槭篱g萬物一切都不是確定的，而只有不確定性這個(gè)概念本身才是唯一確定的。該方法監(jiān)控輸電線路的運(yùn)行情況(例如絕緣子的污穢情況、線路覆冰情況)，分析處理這些監(jiān)控資源所得的原始數(shù)據(jù)，并將處理后的數(shù)據(jù)輸入云決策器，根據(jù)設(shè)定的規(guī)則云決策器做出相應(yīng)的預(yù)控決策。但是，因?yàn)槲覈膰撩娣e，輸電線路大多分散在非常廣闊的地域上，所組成的設(shè)備檢測(cè)參數(shù)非常的多，其相應(yīng)的存儲(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)量也非常的大，所以實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)輸電線路的監(jiān)測(cè)和維護(hù)的工作量非常巨大的，因此，在智能監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)中如何處理這么大的信息量，是能否實(shí)現(xiàn)該系統(tǒng)有效運(yùn)行的關(guān)鍵。因此，如何科學(xué)地對(duì)輸電線路的運(yùn)行狀態(tài)進(jìn)行監(jiān)測(cè)和掌握并及時(shí)安排檢修，已成為輸電線路管理部門一個(gè)非常重要的課題。但是由于在長期以來受“重發(fā)輕供”的思想的影響，我國電力相關(guān)部門對(duì)電力網(wǎng)絡(luò)和輸電線路的發(fā)展不夠重視，造成了對(duì)輸電線路監(jiān)測(cè)相對(duì)比較薄弱。1 摘 要作為電力系統(tǒng)的重要組成部分之一，輸電線路是電網(wǎng)安全運(yùn)行的基本保證，輸電線路的安全及其可靠運(yùn)行對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)有著非常重要的意義，因此，如何對(duì)輸電線路實(shí)現(xiàn)智能監(jiān)測(cè)變的尤為重要。伴隨著我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的發(fā)展，電網(wǎng)的規(guī)模也在逐漸擴(kuò)大，電力網(wǎng)絡(luò)及輸電線路的結(jié)構(gòu)也變得越來越復(fù)雜。為了提高我國輸電線路的監(jiān)測(cè)水平，增強(qiáng)電力系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行的安全性和可靠性，那就要求電力運(yùn)行管理部門對(duì)其所管轄的輸電線路的運(yùn)行狀況有全面的了解和掌握，可以及時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)輸電線路的缺陷和故障隱患，進(jìn)行有針對(duì)性地、有次序地檢修，并在人力和物力上，為即將進(jìn)行的檢修工作做好充分的準(zhǔn)備。在這種情況下，我們就非常迫切的需要建立起智能監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)，來實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)輸電線路運(yùn)行狀態(tài)的實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)測(cè)，并為輸電線路的檢修及其可靠運(yùn)行提供可靠的技術(shù)支持和依據(jù)。本文提出了一種基于云模型的智能輸電線路監(jiān)測(cè)方法。該方法可以有效檢測(cè)到系統(tǒng)級(jí)、網(wǎng)絡(luò)級(jí)以及用戶級(jí)的運(yùn)行情況，有很強(qiáng)的檢測(cè)能力和較好的魯棒性，具有一定的實(shí)際應(yīng)用價(jià)值和科學(xué)研究?jī)r(jià)值。在如此眾多的不確定性中，它們所具有的最基本的性質(zhì)就是隨機(jī)性和模糊性。李德毅教授提出利用云模型來統(tǒng)一對(duì)存在于眾多的預(yù)言值中的模糊性、隨機(jī)性及其兩者之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性進(jìn)行描述,以云模型為通過用語言值來描述的轉(zhuǎn)換模型，表達(dá)某個(gè)定性概念