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【正文】 nWesley. All rights reserved. 1628 ReducedForm ? Examines whether one variable has an effect on another by looking directly at the relationship between the two ? Analyzes the effect of changes in money supply on aggregate output (spending) to see if there is a high correlation ? Does not describe the specific path Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 23 Transmission Mechanisms of Moary Policy: The Evidence Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1624 Historical Perspective III ? Preemptive strikes against inflation ? Preemptive strikes against economic downturns and financial disruptions – LTCM – Enron – Subprime meltdown ? International policy coordination Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1622 Historical Perspective I ? Discount policy and the real bills doctrine ? Discovery of open market operations ? The Great Depression ? Reserve requirements as a policy tool – Thomas Amendment to the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933 ? War finance and the pegging of interest rates Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1620 Central Bank’s Response to Asset Price Bubbles: Lessons From the Subprime Crisis ? Should central banks respond to bubbles? – Strong argument for not responding to bubbles driven by irrational exuberance – Bubbles are easier to identify when asset prices and credit are increasing rapidly at the same time. – Moary policy should not be used to prick bubbles. Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1618 FIGURE 4 Result of Targeting on the Federal Funds Rate Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1616 Criteria for Choosing the Policy Instrument ? Observability and Measurability ? Controllability ? Predictable effect on Goals Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1614 FIGURE 2 Linkages Between Central Bank Tools, Policy Instruments, Intermediate Targets, and Goals of Moary Policy Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1612 Summary Table 1 Advantages and Disadvantages of Different Moary Policy Strategies Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 1610 Moary Policy with an Implicit Nominal Anchor ? There is no explicit nominal anchor in the form of an overriding concern for the Fed. ? Forward looking behavior and periodic “preemptive strikes” ? The goal is to prevent inflation from getting started. Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 168 Inflation Targeting III ? Advantages – Does not rely on one variable to achieve target – Easily understood – Reduces potential of falling in timeinconsistency trap – Stresses transparency and accountability ? Disadvantages – Delayed signaling – Too much rigidity – Potential for increased output fluctuations – Low economic growth during disinflation Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 166 Inflation Targeting I ? Public announcement of mediumterm numerical target for inflation ? Insti
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