【正文】 附錄Building a LowCarbonEconomyChristopher FlavinOver the past halfmillion years, the world’s climate has seen four ice age, with extensive glaciers engulfing large swaths of North America,Europe, and Asia and then retreating, thousandsof species displaced, and the shape of coastlines rearranged as sea levels rose and throughout these hundreds of thousands of years, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), which plays a key role in regulating the climate, has never risen above 300 parts per million. In 2007, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 passed 382 parts per million—and it is already at the equivalent of 430 parts per million if the effect of other greenhouse gases is included. (See Figure 6–1.) Humanity is at risk of creating a climate un like any seen before—unfolding at an unnatural, accelerated pace — more dramatic than any changes in the climate since Earth was last struck by a large asteroid nearly a million years ago. Unless greenhouse gas em issions begin to decline within the next decade, we risk triggering a runa way disruption of the world’s climate climate,one that could last centuries and thatour descendants would be powerless to stop.The world is entering uncharted fuels made the modern economy and all of its material acplishments building a lowcarbon economy is now the central challenge of our age. Meeting that challenge will require restructuring the global energy industry throughtechnological, economic, and policy innovations that are as unprecedented as the climate change it must address.Only recently have scientists understood that changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide,methane, and other less mon gases could trigger an ecological catastrophe of staggering proportions. The climate, it turns out, is not the vast, implacable system it appears to be. Past climate changes have been caused by tiny alterations in Earth’s orbit and orientation to the sun—providing, for example, just enough added energy to warm the planet over thousands of years, increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and in turn triggering even larger changes in the temperature, which scientists call a positive feedback. Today’s massive release of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is leading to far greater changes to the atmosphere in a period of decades.Scientists now project that within the decades immediately ahead, the capacity of the earth and ocean to absorb carbon emissions will decline, while vast changes in the Arctic may further accelerate warming. Melting tundra will release millions of tons of methane, a greenhouse gas more powerful than as the Arctic ice pack disappears in summer—nearly half is already gone—it will be like removing a large air conditioner from Earth’s northern hemisphere. This will further warm the climate and could mean the end of the millionyearold Greenland ice sheet—which by itself contains enough water to raise worldwide sea levels by more than seven meters.When the world will reach such a tipping point—or whether it already has—is not known. But it is already clear that ecological change of this magnitude would lead to unprecedented disruptions to the world’s economies. A groundbreaking 2006 study led by former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern concluded that climate change could cut global economic output by between 5 and 20 percent. In his 2007 book, The Age of Turbulence, Alan Greenspan, the leading freemarket economist of the day, included climate change as one of five forces that could derail the . economy in the twentyfirst century. The uneven and disruptive nature of these changes could set off an even more serious crisis as conflict within and between societies undermines their stability.In 2006 the bustion of fossil fuels released 8 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere—nearly a million tons every hour—with coal and oil contributing roughly 40 percent each and natural gas accounting for the rest. (The manufacture of cement released nearly another 350 million tons, while deforestation and agriculture contributed roughly billion tons.) Global fossil fuel carbon emissions have increased fivefold since 1950and are up 30 percent just since 1990. Today,fossil fuels provide four fifths of the energy that powers the global economy.Burning fossil fuels on this scale is a vast and risky experiment with Earth’s biosphere。另外，我還要感謝商學(xué)院的各位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)和老師，是你們孜孜不倦的教誨使我順利而充實(shí)地完成了大學(xué)四年的學(xué)習(xí)生活，同時(shí)，也要感謝和我共同學(xué)習(xí)生活的同學(xué)們，是你們的關(guān)心、幫助和支持，讓我用于克服各種困難，順利完成了學(xué)年論文和畢業(yè)論文。 T echnology, 2009, 42(10): 35083513.[2]Hill, innovation: Agent of growth and change, in CHRISTOPERT. Hill and James M. Utterback. Technological innovation for a dynamic economy[c]. Pergamonpress, 2011, 139.[3]Kerr BJ, Easter RA. Effect of feeding reduced protein, amino acidsupplemented diets on nitrogen and energy balance in grower pigs[J] . AnimSci, 2010, 73: 30003008.[4]中華人民共和國商務(wù)部. 中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口分析報(bào)告[J].2009, 09: 67．[5]張莉俠, 曹黎明. 中國低碳農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展、基礎(chǔ)、挑戰(zhàn)與對策[J].當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì), 2011, 07: 14231425.[6]張坤民, 潘家華. 低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)論[M].北京: 中國環(huán)境科學(xué)出版社, 2009: 101102．[7]趙其國, 錢海燕. 低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)與農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展思考[J].生態(tài)環(huán)境學(xué)報(bào), 2009, 08(5): 16091614．[8]封肖云. 提高我國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品國際競爭力的對策[J].當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì), 2010, 11: 10021005．[9]肖荷芳. 新農(nóng)村低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的問題與對策[J].青海農(nóng)林科技, 2010, 12(4): 2326．[10] 王昀. 低碳農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)略論[J].中國農(nóng)業(yè)信息, 2009, 08: 1215．[11]周中林. 綠色壁壘理論與實(shí)證研究[M].北京: 中國農(nóng)業(yè)出版社, 2010: 224226．[12]張久和. 中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀及對策[J].天津農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué), 2009, 15(6): 7577．致 謝本文是在導(dǎo)師胡靜老師的悉心指導(dǎo)和嚴(yán)格要求下完成的，從選題、收集資料、加工整理、撰寫指導(dǎo)做后的定稿胡老師付出了大量的心血，給了我很大的幫助。自從我國發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)以來，我國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品對外貿(mào)易較好地突破了外國綠色壁壘的阻礙，貿(mào)易狀況得到了很好的改善，所以現(xiàn)在大力發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)成了我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主題。結(jié)論通過本文的研究可知，低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的總體趨勢，也是也是實(shí)現(xiàn)人和自然環(huán)境和平相處必經(jīng)之路。農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新使我們主動融入到低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的實(shí)踐和世界發(fā)展的潮流中，我國在低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)上將大有作為[12]。從經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度講，社會發(fā)展的每一個(gè)階段都有一個(gè)與其相適應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式：工業(yè)化初級階段，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展依賴的是原始生產(chǎn)要素的高投入的粗放型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長；工業(yè)化中級階段，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展以投資和科技進(jìn)步為主要帶動力量；工業(yè)化高級階段則以信息和現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)為主要發(fā)展方向。發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)以后，應(yīng)加大政策和投資支持，在提高農(nóng)產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量的基礎(chǔ)上，實(shí)施多元化戰(zhàn)略，努力創(chuàng)建一個(gè)富有彈性的多元化出口市場體系，擴(kuò)大農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口。最后，我國應(yīng)該