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貴金屬投資技術(shù)分析英文版(51)(參考版)

2025-05-02 12:42本頁面
  

【正文】 T 86 bio Google 216 bio Walmart 40 bio Citigroup 85 bio Intel 5 bio AIG 120 bio IBM 95 bio H P 32 bio Boeing 58 bio McDonalds 1x 62 bio HUI Gold Index HUI Multiple Market Cap. USD 5 Dec 2022 Index / Stock Macro Economic Overview II. Market Opportunity ? Gold – A True Store of Wealth. Dow Jones 30 Index devalued over 75% in gold terms since 2022. Gold has appreciated 2022% in US Dollar terms since 1971. Investment in US Treasuries today guarantees a capital loss via Negative Real Interest Rates. ? MacroEconomic analysis incredibly bullish for Precious Metals. Massively inflationary policies from Governments/Central Banks globally via bailouts due to the “Financial Crisis”. Currently over 4 Trillion Dollars globally. Competitive Devaluation of ALL currencies. Inevitable flight from Fiat Currency to tangible assets. Paper Metal versus Physical Metal. Refer the 1966 London Gold Pool. Compelling Market Opportunity II. Market Opportunity Moary Inflation Inflation Adjusted Gold Global Mine Production Decline 2022 ??? Financial Crisis 050010001500202225003000350040004500Marshall PlanLouisiana PurchaseRace to the MoonSavings and Loans CrisisKorean WarThe New DealInvasion of IraqVietnam WarNASAWorld War II2022 Financial Crisis. U S $ C o s t i n B i l l i o n s ( I n f l a t i o n A d j u s t e d )II. Market Opportunity Investment Strategies III. Investment Strategies Buy gold reserves cheaply Concentrate on the panies whose reserves are most attractively valued. Invest in high cost producers High cost producers have the greatest operational leverage to an increase in the gold price. Optionality. Gold is harder to find. More will be found where it was before. Companies who control significant historic production sites mothballed for decades due to price and indifference. Diversify globally. Evaluate country risk and diversify accordingly. Synthesize Silver Production Silver is significantly undervalued relative to Gold. Limited market. Synthetically convert gold production to silver production. Strategies Buy Gold Reserves Cheaply III. Investment Strategies ? Metal in the ground provides shareholders with a very real call option on the metal itself. No hedging is a fundamental requirement ? Market Capitalisation divided by Proven and Probable Reserves. The lower the better. ? Price of Gold used to calculate Proven and Probable Reserves understated in our view. Many Producers using $500600 per ounce to calculate reserve base. Reserves Increase at higher prices in most cases. Economic conversion potential of Resources to Reserves. Strip Ratio’s. Invest In High Cost Producers III. Investment Strategies ? Unlike many other equity investments, we prefer exposure to Producers with high costs and therefore very tight margins. Natural leverage to higher prices inevitable. Consider the following example of a gold price of $800 per ounce. Miner A produces at $400 per ounce. Their margin is $400 per ounce. Miner B produces at $700 per ounce. Their margin is $100 per ounce. The Gold Price subsequently rises to $1000 per ounce. Miner A still produces at $400 per ounce. Their margin is now $600 per ounce. An increased profit margin of 50%. Miner B still produces at $700 per ounce. Their margin is now $300 per ounce. An increased profit margin of 200%. The share price of miner B should mirror the obvious outperformance. Historic Goldfields…More to Yield. III. Investment Strategies ? Many historic multimillion ounce gold producing regions have been dormant for more than a Century. Many simply shut after the mid 1800 gold rushes or the end of World War 1 due to costs, lack of a labour force and lack of capital. Many historic mining regions have not been seriously reworked or explored with modern methods and technology. Many suffered due to disjointed and fractured ownership. Some regions are consolidated under one focused owner for the first time in their rich history. Examples such as: Ballarat/ Bendigo in Victoria, Charters Towers in Queensland, Mt Lyell in Western Tasmania, the Carlin Trend in Nevada, Bathurst/Hargreaves in Western New South Wales. ? Gold doesn’t appear in the crust in single “pipes” like diamonds. Where there is one gold mine there will be others. Red Lake Ontario, now controlled by Goldcorp Inc. ? Pure Silver mines are located in Mexico, Peru and Argentina. Historic areas again. S
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