【正文】 . Kearney Analysis US$ Bn China Transportation and Related Expenditures Breakdown by Function (2023) Total = US$ 248 Bn US$ Bn VAS5%O t h e r s29%W ar e h ou s e24%T r an s p or t42%(1) (2) 8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook final/ 22 Demand Growth In Coastal China, demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and Shanghai High Low Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin 4 ? Beijing is the No. 1 air cargo center in China. In addition, Beijing‘s hitech industry, which needs a lot of air transportation, is developing very fast ? Over 80% of the volume through Tianjin port are agricultural products, furniture, metal hardware and raw materials, all being low value products. In addition, most shippers are in poor financial conditions and are very price sensitive Shandong (Qingdao) 4 ? Qingdao has several famous local panies, such as Haier, HiSense, Aukma and Qingdao Beer. They are more quality oriented and less price sensitive ? Frozen products account for 1520% of the volume. Quality requirements for frozen products are very high in terms of timing and handling care. Hence, frozen products shippers tend to be less price sensitive and more quality concerned ? Footwear and garments account for significant portion. Some large customers such as Payless Shoes (No. 1 customer of COSCO in volume) requires accurate shipping time and full range of sophisticated 3PL services from P/O management, trade consulting to space booking, warehousing and transportation Province Logistics Demand – Selected Provinces in Coastal China Guangdong Demand Size 5 Remarks ? Major exports are processing of lower valueadded products ? no special requirement for logistics quality。 CSFB。 CSFB。 . Kearney Analysis Transportation and Related Expenditures by Region (2023) Transportation and Related Expenditures by Function (2023) US$ Bn Total = US$ 3,837 Bn Others: % Asia(1): % Europe: % North America: % 915110213969411073125284095610927297066491996 2023 2023E3,424 3,837 4,389 Warehousing $304 Bn Transport $2,204 Bn Others $55 Bn ShipperRelated $20 Bn Inventory $1,102 Bn Admin $152 Bn CAGR 20232023 8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook final/ 13 The Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US$ 31 Bn in 2023 and is expected to grow at CAGR 39% over the next five years Note: Asia includes China, Japan, Honk Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan Source: Bowersox and Calantone。 . Kearney Estimates 0 . 6 10 . 8 21 . 1 11 . 52 . 0 32 . 7 43 . 6 92023 2023E 2023E 2023E 2023E 2023E 2023EG loba l A s ia C h in a190 23 China Logistics Service Market (US$, Bn) 8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook final/ 19 The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China Characteristics ? Emerging demand for outsourced logistics services ? Low value added services such as transport and warehousing are the major type of services outsourced ? Traditional inhouse behaviour being impacted ? Fast growth of logistics user base and higher requirement for broader services ? Large number of services providers peting for customers and human resources ? Most high value added services are free and provided as selling points ? Logistics outsourcing bees mon practice and an important lever for petition ? Consolidated service market with a few established market leaders ? Logistics perate in supply chain and replace traditional business models ? Global logistics integrators provide onestop solution worldwide ? Specialization and close cooperation among global logistics service providers ? Optimized allocation and integration of resources along the supply chain Stage Emergence Growth Peration Globalization World Leading (US) China Today Source: . Kearney 8 Point/Final Version/Logistics Industry Outlook final/ 20 Warehousing and Distribution Trucking Rail Freight ? Although Heavily Used, Railway Freight Has Long Transit Times and Service Reliability Is Poor ? Railway Containers Are Not Compatible With Shipping Company Containers Airline Customs Brokerage Courier ? Limited Presence of Foreign Firms As JV . DHL Sinotrans ? Regional Segregation in Operation Logistics Center and Freight Forwarding Shipping ? The domestic warehousing market is currently small and oversupplied with basic warehouses providing virtually no valueadded services ? Some consolidation just started among the large warehousing panies ? River transportation has declined ? Most vessels are characterized by low speed and high energy costs ? Trucking panies are only allowed to operate in restricted regions ? Government has established 15 Free Trade Zones and some logistics centers are set up there ? Inland transportation is handled by domestic freight forwarder who is usually subcontracted by the international freight forwarder ? Seven domestic airlines dominate regional operations ? Designated foreign carriers are given a maximum entitlement of 50 tonnes per week ? Many customs clearing brokerage firms and considerable confusion about roles ? Customs clearing procedures took at least 189。 ? Road transportation is convenient, often containerized in factory to reduce cost ? less need for warehousing/ consolidation ? Electronics industry is booming in Dongguan, which has some leading panies like Huawei ? potential large profitable customers Strong Weak Shanghai (Jiangsu, Zhejiang) 5 ? Shanghai is the fast growing economic/ financial center in China, which has some major MNCs such as SGM, Acer, Philips,