【正文】 “我不曾想到它會產(chǎn)生如此糟糕的結(jié)果，”克魯格曼先生說。六月八日，令人尊敬的客人保羅克魯格曼先生，回到倫敦經(jīng)濟學院為一年一度的萊昂內(nèi)爾羅賓斯紀念典禮做演將。這個總和被稱為國際收支。貿(mào)易收支是經(jīng)常賬戶下典型的最重要的部分。經(jīng)常賬戶(即“經(jīng)常項目”)，和資本與金融賬戶相對，指在國際收支平衡表中貿(mào)易和服務而產(chǎn)生的資金流動。注一：關于進口宿命說，可參看Speech by Hon39。但失業(yè)率更讓他們操心。在這些圈子中，由于廉價貨幣一般來說會有利于出口者而對特定產(chǎn)業(yè)和企業(yè)沒有好處，這種政策是最為聲名狼藉。窮國的企業(yè)可以在取悅富國的消費者的過程中學到許多。同時，Mr Rodrik的模型只假設了單一“可出口”貨物。s thirdgeneration mobile phones long before 3G telephony was available at home. Firms in poor countries can learn a lot from serving richer customers abroad.在后金融危機時代，決策者該如何在保留利于增長的策略同時又避免隨之而來的貿(mào)易失衡呢？Mr Rodrik提供了他對這個令人尷尬的問題的解決辦法。更強的貨幣將會抑止外國資金流入過熱部門。他們應該以產(chǎn)業(yè)政策取代匯率政策并直接向有前途的新產(chǎn)業(yè)補助。它們削減出口，但同時又像增收進口關稅。As countries industrialise and diversify, their exports grow, which sometimes results in a trade surplus. These three things tend to go together. But in a statistical “horse race” between the threeindustrialisation, exports and exports minus importsMr Rodrik finds that it is the growth of tradable, industrial goods, as a share of GDP, that does most of the work.伴隨著國家產(chǎn)業(yè)化和產(chǎn)品多樣化進程的是出口增加，這有時會帶來貿(mào)易過剩。這類新產(chǎn)業(yè)往往制造的是“可出口”貨物，像是棉織物或玩具。他認為發(fā)展中國家應該繼續(xù)鼓勵“可出口”，但不要促進“出口”。外國人通過此類失衡來出售貨物給美國人以換取美國資產(chǎn)，這也是美國金融危機的潛在原因之一。一些國家選擇把出口收益存入外匯儲備，而不是用它們來進口。s currentaccount surplus exceeded $700 billion in 2008, as measured by the IMF. In the past, these surpluses were offset by American deficits. But America may now rethink the bargain. This imbalance, whereby foreigners sell their goods to America in exchange for its assets, was one potential cause of the country39。在這些國家成功的光環(huán)下，過去許多發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學家深受“出口宿命說”(注一)折磨的往事被淡忘了。s exports amounted to less than 5% of its GDP. These countries, and many of their neighbours, have since traded their way out of poverty. Given their success, it is easy to forget that some development economists were once prey to “export fatalism”. Poor countries, they believed, had little to gain from venturing into the world market. If they tried to expand their exports, they would thwart each other, driving down the price of their modities.現(xiàn)今世界最繁忙的港口坐落于新加坡在40年前它還只是英國人駐軍的遙遠哨所。據(jù)美國證券托管清算公司(，美國債務簽訂的信用違約掉期合同的名義價值為90億美元，%。 Clearing Corporation (DTCC. the number of contracts and the notional value of derivatives on some 60 sovereign borrowers have generally held steady or grown a bit faster than the overall CDS market.主權(quán)信用違約掉期交易量的維持要好于市場中的其他產(chǎn)品，根據(jù)美國證券托管清算公司(Depository Trust amp。(所以) Klein說，“即使美國晚了30秒鐘還債，仍會申明其違約。這就讓投資者難以估計信用違約掉期定價中的一項關鍵因素，即他們能從(發(fā)達國家中的)破產(chǎn)事件中回收多少錢。反之，經(jīng)濟復蘇意味著更少的銀行倒閉事件，因此政府的資產(chǎn)負債表被救市計劃拖累的可能性也就越小。Dave Klein at CDR admits to being puzzled by the trend. He reckons that investors associate sovereigndefault risk with overall financial risk because governments now backstop so much of the system. When America bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the country39。然而理應最為人們所擔心的(信用違約)市場卻沒有顯示出相應風險。澤爾有個著名的別號叫“墳墓舞者”(the grave dancer)。截至目前弗拉沃還在舔那些國外的創(chuàng)傷，家里的生意也還沒有什么大的起色，但是他相信，財富就在前方。央行擔心幾十年以來一直被分開監(jiān)管的商業(yè)和金融業(yè)混為一談。The Office of Thrift Supervision, which watches over lenders with around $1 trillion of assets, has gone even further. It recently permitted a single buyout shop, MatlinPatterson, to take over a thrift in Michigan and has indicated that it will wave through similar deals.儲蓄機構(gòu)監(jiān)理局(他們負責監(jiān)管擁有10000億美元資產(chǎn)的貸款機構(gòu))更是大刀闊斧。負責監(jiān)管全國性銀行的貨幣監(jiān)理署官員甚至發(fā)明出了“執(zhí)照貨架”，這些團體可以確保是交易安全的。As the crisis has rumbled on, regulators have reluctantly ceded some ground to the barbarians at the banks39。Alternatively, investors can use their personal wealth to buy entire banks. Christopher Flowers, a specialist in bank buyouts, did just that, splashing out on a small Missouri lender and rebranding it Flowers Bank. But these solo buyers are barred from tapping their firms39。根據(jù)評級機構(gòu)穆迪的統(tǒng)計，美國銀行的壞賬準備只是涵蓋了全部損失的70%，遠低于實際損失。Investing is still risky. Smaller banks are riddled with mercialproperty loans, which are going bad at an alarming rate. American banks39。Hence the focus on private equity. The favoured strategy is to snap up a small bank, healthy or not, and turn it into a vehicle to scoop up failed local rivals. John Kanas, a veteran banker charged with reviving BankUnited, sees in it the foundation of a regional powerhouse. The Florida market is particularly attractive, he says, as many petitors there are shackled by regulatory or government restrictions.因此焦點放到了私人股本。Private equity has piles of unallocated capital, although it has bee much more difficult to wrest undrawn funds from investors. It also has a lot more raw material to work with, as the pace of bank failures accelerates (see chart). Hundreds of lenders will need help to survive but most large banks are too capitalconstrained to step in. Those that have raised fresh equity, such as JPMorgan Chase, will use it to repay taxpayers.盡管它越來越難從投資者那里獲得那些不打算取回的資金，私人股本仍然懷揣大量無處可投的資金。但自從1月份私人買家團體對加州一個名為IndyMac的破產(chǎn)貸款公司的收購“打破了僵局”。盡管他們中已經(jīng)對過早投資那些問題銀行和存款機構(gòu)而留下了可怕的名聲記得摩根大通對華互銀行損失慘重的收購但是現(xiàn)在當對金融市場重拾信心后，第二輪的收購者們又排成了隊?，F(xiàn)在是將消費能力從西向東做更大轉(zhuǎn)移的時候了。s consumer spending contributed slightly more (in absolute dollar terms) to the growth in global demand than did America39。但亞洲各國政府想要將增長平衡由出口向內(nèi)需轉(zhuǎn)變的更大實驗能否成功將取決于它們是否允許本國貨幣匯率上升。幸運的是，中國銀監(jiān)機構(gòu)已經(jīng)在5月宣布了一些規(guī)則草案，允許中外機構(gòu)建立消費金融公司為消費者購買商品提供個人貸款。 in China and India it is less than 15%. South Korea is the big exception: households have as much debt relative to their ine as Americans and their saving rate has fallen over the past decade from 18% of disposable ine to only 4%. In many other Asian economies financing for consumer durables is virtually nonexistent. Promisingly, the Chinese bank regulator announced draft rules in May to allow domestic and foreign institutions to set up consumerfinance firms to offer personal loans for consumergoods purchases.另一個刺激消費的方法是讓借貸更容易。 worries about future pensions and health care, it could in the long term encourage them to save less and spend more.政府也在今年頒布了幾項舉措改善社保網(wǎng)絡，比如對醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生領域加大投入、向低收入家庭發(fā)放養(yǎng)老金和收入補助。在過去6個月中北京政府頒布一攬子激勵政策來鼓勵家庭打開他們的錢包。(新加坡的消費也很低，不足GDP的40%)This explains why China39。s consumption is also low, at just under 40% of GDP.)在大多數(shù)亞洲經(jīng)濟體中，個人消費占GDP的5060%，這個數(shù)字并不比收入水平相同的其他任何地方低。但這卻并不真正符合事實，%，這要比世界上任何其他地區(qū)都要快。但是匯豐銀行的經(jīng)濟學家弗雷德里希紐曼認為，當下消費止跌上升的趨勢已初露端倪。今年截至五月，