【正文】 extinctions, because there is no evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals. Further, archaeologists have discovered numerous sites where the bones of fish had been discarded, but they found no such areas containing the bones of large mammals, so the humans cannot have hunted the mammals. Therefore, some climate change or other environmental factor must have caused the species39。 at the large, forprofit hospital in the nearby city of Megaville, the average patient stay is six days. Also, the cure rate among patients in the Saluda hospital is about twice that of the Megaville hospital. The Saluda hospital has more employees per patient than the hospital in Megaville,and there are few plaints about service at the local hospital. Such data indicate that treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals is more economical and of better quality than treatment in larger, forprofit hospitals. Finally, the mere fact that the Saluda hospital receives fewer patient plaints than Megaville39。s losing its appeal as a place to visit or to live. Unless the mayor can convince me that these scenarios are unlikely I cannot accept the mayor39。 effectiveness. Or perhaps sales volume is higher at Adams simply because it employs more agents, and each Adams agent actually sells fewer homes on average than each Fitch agent does. Without ruling out such alternative explanations for the disparity in sales volume, the author cannot defend the conclusion that based on this evidence that Adams is superior to Fitch. 12 ●時間推廣： 1 2 2 3 225 //Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View39。 revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, pared to Fitch39。s workshift policy Alta would reduce the number of such accidents. Faulty Analogy 1 2 3 4 6 9 16 2 3 13 24 11 19 67 //The following appeared in a letter sent by a mittee of homeowners from the Deer haven Acres to all homeowners in Deer haven Acres. Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville munity adopted a set of restrictions on how the munity39。s issue of Eating for Health reported that a recent study found a correlation between high levels of iron in the diet and an increased risk of heart disease. Further, it is well established that there is a link between large amounts of red meat in the diet and heart disease, and red meat is high in iron. On the basis of the study and the wellestablished link between red meat and heart disease, we can conclude that the correlation between high iron levels and heart disease, then, is most probably a function of the correlation between red meat and heart disease. The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a national newspaper. Even assuming that the study is statistically reliable, a direct correlation between a highiron diet and heart disease does not necessarily prove that the former causes the latter. While a high correlation is strong evidence of a causal relationship, in itself it is not sufficient. The author must also account for all other possible factors leading to heart disease, such as geic propensity, amount of exercise, and so forth. Lacking evidence that the heartdisease sufferers whom the study observed were similar in all such respects, the author cannot justifiably conclude that a highiron diet is the primary cause, or even a contributing cause, of heart disease. Similarly, a correlation between a diet, which includes large amounts of red meat and heart disease, does not necessarily infer a causal relationship. Lacking evidence to the contrary, it is possible that redmeat eaters are paratively likely to incur heart disease due to factors that have nothing to do with the amount of red meat in their diet. 10 Perhaps redmeat eaters are the same people who generally overeat, and it is obesity rather the consumption of red meat specifically that causes heart attacks. The author must consider and eliminate this and other possible reasons why redmeat eaters are more likely than other people to suffer from heart disease. Otherwise, I cannot accept the author39。s residents properly view this trend as a negative one. If so, and if Riedeburg39。s population is the result of sociological trends that have nothing to do with Riedeburg39。s, when television sets began to appear in the average home, the rate of crimes mitted by teenagers in the country of Alta has steadily increased. This increase in teenage crime parallels the increase in violence shown on television. According to several national studies, even very young children who watch a great number of television shows featuring violent scenes display more violent behavior within their home environment than do children who do not watch violent shows. Furthermore, in a survey conducted by the Observer, over 90 percent of the respondents were parents who indicated that primetime televisionprograms that are shown between 7 . and 9 show less violence. Therefore, in order to lower the rate of teenage crime in Alta, television viewers should demand that television programmers reduce the amount of violence shown during prime time.// To begin with, the editorial observes a correlation between violence on television and violent teenage crime, then concludes that the former is the cause of the latter. However, the editorial fails to rule out other possible explanations for the rise in violent crime among teenagers. For example, since the 1950s it is entirely possible that Alta has seen a large growth in its population, or a deterioration of its juvenile justice system or economy. Any of these factors, or other social, p