我國國內生產總值及其影響因素的回歸分析畢業(yè)論文-資料下載頁
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【正文】 fluencing factors in ChinaMingming Zhang(Grade11, Class1, Major in Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematics And Computer Science, Shaanxi University of Technology, Hanzhong 723000, Shaanxi)張明明Xiaokang LiAbstract: In order to explore the influencing factors of China39。s gross domestic product, this paper is mainly from the point view of macro economy bined with our specific national conditions selected from 1990 to 2009 China39。s import and export trade volume, fiscal expenditure, total wages of staff and workers, tax revenue, the previous GDP and savings balance of the six factors in the 20 years of historical data, established multiple linear regression model, take the parameter estimation and the corresponding inspection using OLS (least squares) method. In the examination we found that the model exist the multicollinearity, we choose the stepwise regression method to eliminate irrelevant variables so as to eliminate the multicollinearity among variables。 using the rank correlation coefficient to test the heteroskedasticity of the model .And it is corrected by the logarithmic transformation method. Then we found that the model after correction does not exist heteroscedasticity by White test。 using the Studentized Residual analysis method to diagnose the abnormal value。 we found that the model existent two order autocorrelation by Lagrange multiplier method (GB test)and eliminate the autocorrelation using the iterative method 。 these variables can meet the basic assuming of the multivariate linear regression model as these series of test and modify. By calculating the relative error of actual data between the Predictive value of each model in 20 years, the final model is determined as the fourth model. Finally we e to the conclusion: import and export trade volume, total wages of staff and workers and the period of gross domestic product are mainly effect the China39。s gross domestic product .Keywords:GDP, stepwise regression, multiple linear regression, multivariate variance, multivariate weighted least square method. 附錄A表 1990~2009我國GDP數(shù)據(jù)（單位/億元）年份GDP進出口額財政支出職工工資總額稅收收入上期GDP儲蓄余額1990199116101992199311271199419958100199690801997789731998789731999200020012002003351192004200520062007282442008337142009 ——數(shù)據(jù)來自中國統(tǒng)計年鑒表 歷史數(shù)據(jù)殘差表（單位/億元）年份GDP進出口額財政支出職工工資總額稅收收入上期GDP儲蓄余額殘差1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 200 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 表 自變量的各種殘差值（單位/億元）年份GDP進出口額職工工資總額上期GDPRES_1DRE_1SRE_1SDR_1COO_1LEV_11990.04597.064421991.03069.066081992.01109.072481993.23679.22967.00237.094621994.42709.41591.01455.191911995.47105.45929.01443.156401996.45091.43939.00749.078431997.25914.25144.00144.028831998.55236.53999.01498.114191999.36132.35128.00697.126082000.76523.75487.02332.087402001.04614.09445200.26675.25886.00267.080692003.00204.041092004.00023.071282005.14286.128022006.29709.185892007.42755.295432008.28297.221972009.80034第 19 頁 共 20
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