通貨膨脹與失業(yè)ppt課件-資料下載頁
2025-04-29 04:01本頁面
【正文】 期菲利普斯曲線下移 ?經濟經歷低通脹，但以高失業(yè)為代價。 ? 犧牲率 The sacrifice ratio是每減少一個百分點的通貨膨脹所損失的年產出百分點數(shù)。 ?估計犧牲率是 5 ? 19791981年間將通貨膨脹從 10%減少到 4%，世界需要犧牲大約 30%的年產出 理性預期與無代價地反通貨膨脹的可能性 ? 理性預期 rational expectations理論表明，人們在預期未來時會充分利用他們所擁有的所有信息，包括政府政策。 ? 理性預期說明了為什么短期而不是長期存在通貨膨脹和失業(yè)的權衡取舍問題。 ? 短期權衡會多快消失取決于預期調整有多快 ? 理性預期表明，犧牲率可能比估計的要地許多。 沃爾克的反通貨膨脹 ? When Paul Volcker was Fed chairman in the 1970s, inflation was widely viewed as one of the nation’s foremost problems. ? Volcker succeeded in reducing inflation (from 10 percent to 4 percent), but at the cost of high employment (about 10 percent in 1983). ? 19811984: ? Fiscal policy was expansionary, ? so Fed policy had to be very contractionary to reduce inflation. Figure 11 The Volcker Disinflation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 Unemployment Rate (percent) Inflation Rate (percent per year) 1980 1981 1982 1984 1986 1985 1979 A 1983 B 1987 C Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern 格林斯潘時代： 19872022 ? Alan Greenspan’s term as Fed chairman began with a favorable supply shock. ? In 1986, OPEC members abandoned their agreement to restrict supply. ? This led to falling inflation and falling unemployment. ? Fluctuations in inflation and unemployment in recent years have been relatively small due to the Fed’s actions. Figure 12 The Greenspan Era 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 Unemployment Rate (percent) Inflation Rate (percent per year) 1984 1991 1985 1992 1986 1993 1994 1988 1987 1995 1996 2022 1998 1999 2022 2022 1989 1990 1997 Copyright 169。 2022 SouthWestern
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