貴金屬投資技術(shù)分析英文版(8)-資料下載頁
2025-05-13 22:45本頁面
【正文】 05%? GDP growth in Q2 2021 of % ? Industrial production growth in August 2021 of % ? Fixed Asset Investment growth in August 2021 of % Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 25 Urbanisation of China fuels construction growth ? Market fears of slowdown appear unfounded ? Shakeout of “speculative” developers earlier this year lead to lower growth ? Return of high growth rates in construction activity and steel consumption ? Chinese stainless steel consumption thought to grow at an average of 9% pa for next decade ? Not just in China – 2021 first year in history that more people live in cities than rural area Chinese Property Construction Index Chinese Steel Consumption Source: BHP Billiton, UBS, September 2021 26 Demand ? Industrialisation and urbanisation of China is having a huge effect on the modities markets ? China is fast being the largest consumer of raw materials in the world China’s Share of Global Demand Source: UBS, Chinese Customs, Datastream 1990 2021E 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Oil Iron ore Gold Aluminium Steel Copper Nickel Zinc 27 Mining Sector Consolidation ? Company balance sheets strong, debt at all time low, cash flows at all time high ? Quality growth opportunities remain sparse ? Rising capex (machinery, labour, raw materials) deterring management from to building new operations Conclusion: Consolidation will continue as panies look to increase production growth cost effectively in this high modity price environment . – Inco and Falconbridge (October 2021): US$11bn – BHP Billiton and WMC Resources (August 2021): US$7bn – Goldcorp and Wheaton River (February 2021) US$2bn ? We believe there are still more to e...Anglo American amongst others? 28 R e a l B a s e M e ta l Pr i c e s s i n c e 1 9 7 90204060801001201401979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2021Indexed to 100Real Base Metal Prices ? Are we experiencing a structural change in prices? ? Better capital discipline, consolidation of the industry, lack of new supply and unprecedented demand event (China) have lead to a real price increase. Source: Datastream. Portfolio Strategy amp。 Outlook 30 Strategy ? General Themes – Aggressive view on demand vs supply eg China vs lack of new projects – Bias towards shareholder return focused management – Limited “pure exploration” but selective holdings in high growth juniors – Focus on value and modity beta – Increasing emphasis on emerging new producer nations eg China, Africa, Former Soviet Union and India ? Key is to balance mix of core holdings with smaller high growth opportunities and panies with significant modity beta ? Aim to provide exposure to global mining sector rather than just Australian mining investments 31 Outlook ? Record earnings and cash flow yet again this year ? Deficits by and large intact whilst inventories remain stubbornly low ? Change in market structure could reverse real price decline trend ? Management determined to deliver returns to shareholders ? Valuations at attractive levels ? Gold price showing potential to have major break out above US$500oz ? Other precious metals enjoying high prices
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