【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 ation of backbone OpEx(2) Market estimates based on revenue generation by CNC alonePOTENTIAL WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS INCLUDE ISPs, MOBILE OPERATORS, AND FIXED LINE CARRIERS ISPs offer significant potential if CNC can provide superior bandwidth access and to international gateway? Current satisfaction among regional ISPs very low? International gateway license in conjunction with high bandwidth transoceanic carrier alliance could provide vastly superior service Mobile carriers will be searching for lower cost alternatives to carry long distance traffic due to intensifying petition ? CNC’s new high capacity VoIP work and international gateway likely to yield lower costs Fixed line carriers potentially looking for alternatives? Existing longhaul transport infrastructure limited? China Tele could even be a possible customer given current focus on increasing residential teledensityOVERALL WHOLESALE MARKET SIZE IS SUBSTANTIAL AND GROWING AT A MODEST RATEAnticipated Price Decrease in Leased Lines Limits Overall Revenue Growth Leased Lines ISP Market Size (RMB B)15 Total Leased Lines Mobile99’04’CAGR Access Ports Leased Lines Paging18 18202226284%41%1%152%(1)9%(1) 01’04’ CAGRSource: CNC team inputs。 foreign benchmarks。 BCG analysis Dark Fiber 68%(1)CARRIERS SEEKING ALTERNATIVES...ISPs definitely seeking alternatives to CT Mobile carriers likely to follow“We need a tele service provider that is not our petitor.” Founder, East“China Tele, with their own work development plans, tends to starve us on capacity or to force us to pay in advance for excess capacity.” Manager, Infohighway“The fact that it takes China Tele two months every time we need an extra line makes it very difficult to have our own customers. We want another operator who can get us leased lines fast.” Manager, InfohighwayMobile carriers might consider diverting part of their traffic to alternative service providers with:? more attractive pricing? higher quality service? higher bandwidthInterviews with regional mobile carriers and Uni need to be conducted to verify potential…BUT TECHNOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS AND COMPETITIVE CHALLENGE ARE IMPORTANT FACETS TO MANAGECompetitive ChallengeTechnological LimitationsMobile carriers may be hesitant to use VOIP technology for primary applications? Carriers currently addressing sound quality as a major improvement initiative? VOIP has yet to deliver tollquality voice transmission, even on landline? Mobile carriers may take view that VOIP could further degrade voice qualityChina Tele likely to have advantage in peting share of CT Mobile’s business? Strong former intraCT connection even after split? Extensive backbone coverage and large TDM based capacityUni Mobile Services’ business as tough targetBuild presence by offering lowcosttrials and backup capacityLobby for clear regulation from MII on freedom of choice for carriersPREDICTED WHOLESALE ECONOMICS ADD SIGNIFICANT VALUE TO VOIP BUSINESS MODELAdditional CapEx and OpEx Minimal5 year PV(1) (M RMB)CapEX OpExRevenue5 year NPV15%: ~ RMB5 year IRR: ~ 40%Wholesale critical to enhancing profitability of backboneVOIPBackbone allocationDark FiberAccess portsISPsMobile operatorsVOIPVOIPISP accessOSS(1) Assuming 15% cost of capitalSource: BCG benchmark database。 industry interviews。 BCG analysisOSS/provisioningPresent value of cash flows8,0007,0005,0001,0006,0003,0004,000AGENDA Business Models? Domestic and international longdistance voice? Wholesale/carrier? Enterprise solutions? Issues going forwardAPPROACH TO ENTERPRISE SOLUTIONS BUSINESS MODELObjectives Hypothesized ApproachCapture strong share among medium/large business by offering enhanced data solutions? Goal to establish clear position as best service/quality provider in major marketsUtilize most cost effective deployment technologies to cover major metro areasMinimize headtohead petition by offering differentiated, datacentric productsattempt to drive data marketDevelop image as fast, responsive solutions provider? Enable petitive advantage for business customers through data? For building managers: make their buildings more attractive to tenantsDeployment to target key buildings in major metropolitan areas? Four cities by year 2023/01? Top 15 cities by 2023Fiber in most dense urban hirise areas and LMDS to plement and serve less dense areasInitial lead products will be low cost voice over IP and high bandwidth inter access? Migration to full data solutions as customer base and capabilities grow? Quality customer service more important short term than full product offeringEmphasis on ease of use and fast provisioning versus petitorsexploit CT’s weaknessesEducation of customers on use of data products as petitive weaponsMarketing partner with key building managers ENTERPRISE SOLUTIONS SUMMARYPreliminary EconomicsPhase I Capital Investment (2023,2023): ~ B RMB?First four cities (assuming fiber): ~650 M RMB?Additional 11 cities1: ~400 M RMBOpEx expected to be ~ 40% of revenue by 2023Market share and revenue estimates 2023?Off Voice2: ~20%?Existing data: ~10% ~ B RMB?Emerging data: ~ 5%5 year NPV: Roughly B RMBAssumes launch date of 3Q 2023 for data services?Likely too optimisticKey Issues to be AddressedRight of way for existing ducts and diggingPartnership strategy for high bandwidth IGW Rights to LMDS frequency spectrumAre the 15 cities designated for Phase I buildout the right 15 cities for local access?Tradeoff between pure economics by city vs. strategic value of providing endtoend connectivityWhat is a realistic time frame for launch?Magnitude of anizational and human resource require