外國精品ppt之sequoia(編輯修改稿)
2025-03-20 10:48 本頁面
【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 BT/DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOMEFOR = ADDS AUTOMOBILE LEASE PAYMENTS, RENTAL PAYMENTS, H/O’S INSURANCEAND PROPERTY TAX PAYMENTS TO THE DSRSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis.MEWs BECAME THE NEW PIGGY BANKMEW CONTINUES TO FADE…Source: Haver, BEA, NAHB, Conference Board, EIA, Man Stanley Research.FROM VIRTUOUS TO VISCIOUS CYCLEMORTGAGE RESET UNEMPLOYMENT SPIKES HIGHERDELINQUENCIES/FORECLOSURESPRICES FALLMEWS DECREASECONSUMER SPEND FALLSJOB MARKET ERODESRECESSION Source: Federal Reserve, Haver, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, Factset, ManStanley Research, CaseShiller amp。 DB Global Market Research.ON THE BRINK OF A RECESSIONCONSUMER CONFIDENCE AT MULTIDECADE LOWSISM IS FALLING FAST GDP IS POISED TO TURN NEGATIVESource: Haver, NAHB, Conference Board, NFIB, Man Stanley Research, DoL amp。 DB Global Markets Research.EARNINGS BEGINNING TO ROLLEARNINGS DOWN 18% ON ESTIMATES MADE 12 MONTHS AGOSource: Datastream, Robert Shiller, Factset and Man Stanley Research.Y/YVSHAPED RECOVERY UNLIKELYSamp。P 500ITMEDIATELECOM SVCSCurrent Samp。P 500 Consensus Actual and Expected Operating Earnings Growth (WeightedAvg. % / Y/Y)CY00 CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 CY05 CY06 CY07 CY08E CY09EFinancials 5% 10% 18% 25% 11% 5% 23% 37% 46% 109%Consumer Discretionary 0% 24% 33% 11% 28% 2% 9% 10% 16% 41%Media 1% 6% 34% 12% 33% 28% 27% 15% 11% 11%Information Technology 28% 63% 0% 46% 43% 20% 12% 21% 10% 17%Tele Services 6% 24% 8% 0% 8% 14% 17% 5% 1% 10%Samp。P 500 17% 17% 5% 18% 20% 15% 16% 4% 1% 23%Y/YADVERTISING MARKETS ARE CRACKINGSource: TNS . Advertising Expenditure EstimatesY/YRETAIL/ECOMMERCE DETERIORATINGSource: US Census Bureau.Y/YMOBILE IS NOT IMMUNESource: TNS . Advertising Expenditure EstimatesJun08EJun95 Jun96 Jun97 Jun98 Jun99 Jun00 Jun01 Jun02 Jun03 Jun04 Jun05 Jun06Dec95 Dec96 Dec97 Dec98 Dec99 Dec00 Dec01 Dec02 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05 Dec06Jun07Dec07TECH SPENDING DEPENDS ON ECONOMYYY Change in Samp。P 500 Earnings, Technology Spending (19962022E)30%20%10%0%10%20%30%Samp。P 500 EPS Growth Tech Spending GrowthSource: Bernstein Strategy Group。 First CallDrop in earnings in Dec 07 was partly due to financial serv
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