【正文】 . of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood HannanQuinn criter. Fstatistic DurbinWatson stat Prob(Fstatistic) 0 Y= ++++ t ＝ ()()()（ )(） R2= Adjusted R2= F= = = （三）結(jié) 論 本模型中， β1 =， β2 =， β3=， β4=,說明在其他因素不變的情況下，農(nóng)民人均純收入、農(nóng)村剩余勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移的數(shù)量、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)比重和工業(yè)增加值均與城鎮(zhèn)化率成正相關(guān)關(guān)系， 即隨著 農(nóng)民人均純收入的增加和農(nóng)村剩余勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移的數(shù)量的增加，以及第三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)比重的增加和工業(yè)增加值的增加，都會帶動城鎮(zhèn)化率的增加 。江蘇省政府積極努力加快農(nóng)村的剩余勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移，不斷進行開拓創(chuàng)新，并以此來推動新農(nóng)村 的建設(shè)，通過農(nóng)村剩余勞動力的轉(zhuǎn)移，農(nóng)村的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展得到了拉動，農(nóng)民收入也在不斷增加，社會主義新農(nóng)村的建設(shè)也進入了一個新的臺階。在江蘇省，城鄉(xiāng)收入差距比較顯著、生活水平差距大，城鎮(zhèn)的就業(yè)機會比較多，導(dǎo)致留在農(nóng)村的實際收入水平小于到城鎮(zhèn)打工的預(yù)期收入水平，使得農(nóng)村剩余勞動力大 量向城鎮(zhèn)轉(zhuǎn)移。在 1998 到 20xx 年間，江蘇省的城鎮(zhèn)化率提高了 個百分點，平均每年提高 個百分點，表明江 蘇的城鎮(zhèn)化進程處于一個高速發(fā)展的階段。而盧曉園（ 20xx） [14]、張萍 （ 20xx） [15]、胡金誼（ 20xx） [16]的研究表明認為城鎮(zhèn)化是農(nóng)業(yè)剩余勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移的有效途徑，為農(nóng)業(yè)資源市場化合理配置創(chuàng)造了條件，有力的促進農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化進程，拉動了農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。江蘇省科技的快速進步和經(jīng)濟的平穩(wěn)發(fā)展，也會逐步改善農(nóng)村的勞動生產(chǎn)率，不斷擴大農(nóng)村剩余勞動力的規(guī)模，但是很大程度上卻限制了農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟的進一步發(fā)展，使農(nóng)民的收入水平也直接受到影響。然后，結(jié)合江蘇的實際情況來進行分析，并提出相應(yīng)的建 議和對策。 關(guān)鍵詞： 江蘇省 農(nóng)村剩余勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移 城鎮(zhèn)化 2 The Influence of Rural Surplus Labor Transfer on Urbanization in Jiangsu Abstract In recent years, Jiangsu Province has made remarkable achievements on the economic and social development. However, while the economy grows rapidly and stably, some contradictions and internal discord also gradually emerged in the growth of economy, particularly the gradually widening gap in the urbanrural ine, social welfare and environment. Now, the transfer of rural surplus labor of Jiangsu Province, is not only faced with old conflicts but also a new problem, which has some representation in our country. This refers to some abroad theoretical studies, because they analyze the factors affecting the transfer of rural surplus labor force of reason and rural surplus labor. It also draws on the literature of some domestic researchers, which mainly describes the transfer of rural surplus labor relations and the impact of urbanization. This article mainly uses urbanization of rural labor transfer and experience gains and losses, bing with the actual situation of China and Jiangsu. The article describes current situation for the rural surplus labor force and urbanization in Jiangsu Province for the corresponding study, with analysis of the pushpull theory and Todaro reasons for the transfer of rural surplus labor of Jiangsu Province. Then, according to the estimates of the relevant data and facts, it summarized the characteristics of the transfer of rural surplus labor in Jiangsu Province. Also, it analyzes and describes the factors affecting urbanization in Jiangsu Province. It makes quantitative analysis on the impact of urbanization elements and later gets major impact indicators. And I finally build a model based on these factors impact on the model results that were analyzed and summarized. Then, with the analysis of actual situation in Jiangsu, it analyzes and makes remendations accordingly and countermeasures. Key words： Jiangsu Province Rural Surplus Labor Transfer Urbanization 目 錄 一、引言 ............................................................ 1 二、文獻綜述 ........................................................ 2 （一）國外研究綜述 .............................................. 2 （二）國內(nèi)研究綜述 .............................................. 3 三、江蘇省城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)現(xiàn)狀分析 ........................................ 4 （一）江蘇城鎮(zhèn)化率的變化情況 .................................... 4 （二）江蘇城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)進程中產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化 .............. 5 （三）江蘇城鎮(zhèn)化建設(shè)進程中工業(yè)發(fā)展情況 .......................... 7 四、江蘇省農(nóng)村剩余勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移現(xiàn)狀分析 ................................ 7 （一）江蘇省農(nóng)村剩余勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移的原因分析 ........................ 7 （二）江蘇省農(nóng)村剩余勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移的數(shù)量估算 ........................ 8 五、江蘇省農(nóng)村剩余勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移對城鎮(zhèn)化的影響分析 .