【正文】 s External staffing Strategies Demand for HR Supply Of HR = Main topics HRP 2. The demand for human resources Causes of demand for human resources in the future External anizational workforce ① Economic developments ② Socialpoliticallegal challenges ③ petitors ① Strategic plans ② Budgets ③ Sales and production forecasts ④ Organization and job design ① Retirement ② Resignations ③ Terminations ④ Deaths ⑤ Leaves of absence Cause of Demand for Human Resources External ? Economic developments ? Socialpoliticallegal challenges ? Technological changes ? Competitors Inflation, unemployment, interest rate etc. Computer technology Automation Fierce petition in today’s electronic, electric products trade, vehicle etc. Organizational ?Strategic Plans ?Budgets ?Sales and production forecasts ?New ventures ?Organization and job designs Cause of Demand for Human Resources Longrange objectives, such as growth rate or new products, markets or services etc. Shortrun Longrun employment plan Workforce factors ?Retirement ?Resignation辭職 ?Terminations 合同終止 ?Deaths ?Leaves of absence Cause of Demand for Human Resources Forecasting Human Resources Needs ? To estimate估計(jì) of future resources needs and changes Forecasting human resource needs Forecasting techniques for estimating future human resource needs Expert Trend other ① Informal and instant decisions ② Formal expert survey ③ Delphi technique ① Extrapolation ② Indexation ③ Statistical analysis ① Budget and planning analysis ② Newventure analysis ③ Computer models Forecasting techniques ? Expert ? Trend ? Other Informal and instant 非正式的和即時(shí)法 NGT 名義群體法 Delphi technique德?tīng)柗品? Extrapolation推斷法 Indexation 指數(shù)法 (figure 35) Budget and Planning analysis NewVenture Analysis Computerbased Simulation Models nominal group technique ? 名義群體法 (nominal group technique): structured meeting that identifies and ranks problems or issues affecting a 員的討論或人際溝通加以限制，這就是名義一詞的含義。結(jié)果通常是啟發(fā)出新的解決辦法，或