【正文】 China is a growing importer from the region of natural resources that it does not possess. It is also raisin g imports of manufactured products. Its advanced neighbors are selling it sophisticated consumer and producer goods, and using it as a base for processing exports to third countries. The multinational panies (MNCs) that now account for around half of Chinese exports (and far more of its high technology exports, UNCTAD,2002) are incorporating China into production systems spanning the region (‘fragmentation’ and ‘segmentation’ are used to describe this phenomenon3), so promoting considerable intrafirm trade with other regional bases. China’s own enterprises are likely to specialize with respect to regional counterparts and so raise intraindustry trade in differentiated products. Perhaps worryingly for petitors in other regions, such integration can lead China to plement regional petitiveness as a whole, rather than substitute its exports for those of its neighbors.It is difficult to assess, however, whether plementarily between China and the regional economies will fully offset its petitive threat. The dynamics and plexity of the interactions make it impossible to quantify the oute, even to predict broad directions. The basic issue is whether China’s higher wage neighbors can move into more advanced export activities or functions rapidly enough to permit continued export expansion. If they can, they can continue with exportled growth. If they cannot, they will suffer export deceleration and/or a shift in specialization towards primary products or slowgrowing segments of manufactured exports. The oute, in other words, will depend on the relative growth of technological and other capabilities in Chinese and regional enterprises, with the former having such advantages as lower wages, larger scale economies, greater industrial depth, pools of technical skill and a proactive government. However, as East Asian countries differ widely in these factors (Lall, 2001), they face different kinds and intensity of petitive threat. The nature of the threat depends, moreover, on the organization of the production and marketing system: independent local firms are likely to pete more directly than affiliates of the same MNC spread over different countries in an integrated system.This paper does not try to measure China’s petitive threat or its effects, but to map relative export performance in the 1990s by technology and destination and so assess where the threat appears most intense. We focus on major East Asian exporters5 and on exports to third markets, but we also analyses plementarities between China and East Asia, particularly in electronics, the region’s largest export and the one where MNC systems dominate. As the 1990s predate China’s WTO accession, we do not go into the implications of this accession。弱化這種威脅論的是中國政府的承諾(加入WTO只是區(qū)域貿易自由化的若干舉措之一)，和出口到世界各地的潛在合作。威脅的性質更多地體現(xiàn)在產(chǎn)品組織和營銷系統(tǒng)，獨立的當?shù)仄髽I(yè)可能比一體化系統(tǒng)中遍布不同國家的相同跨國公司分支機構的競爭更加直接。資源型產(chǎn)品：由于整體出口的格局類似，中國再次引領著區(qū)域市場份額增長，但是，韓國與臺灣和新加坡相比之下，其在日本的份額獲得大量增加，臺灣和新加坡不僅僅失去了日本的市場，而且包括美國市場，泰國是日本的大贏家，而印尼和菲律賓失去了美國市場。向其他經(jīng)濟體學習，正在成為具有全球競爭力的勢力。附件表顯示如下：工業(yè)制成品的總出口額：中國在日本做的最好，接著是美國，稍微有一點差距，在與大多數(shù)鄰國一樣，其市場份額在西歐增加是最弱的。這里的基本問題是，中國高工資的鄰國是否帶來更先進的技術活動，而且能夠迅地速繼續(xù)擴大出口額。因此，在直接貿易條件下，中國在出口增長方面是其鄰國的領頭人，但是，這將改變中國價值鏈的移動，帶動東亞出口的迅速增長，引言中國競爭威脅論的擔心是普遍存在的，（像發(fā)達國家中的美國和發(fā)展中國家的墨西哥等）作為東亞和南亞最大的出口國，中國的新興出口憑借廉價的勞動生產(chǎn)力，大量的人力技術存量，巨大的和多元化的工業(yè)部門，吸引外國投資，以及優(yōu)惠的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策，如今，加入WTO后，中國更加自由的進入國際市場，導致了出口損