【正文】 s % . GDP [USD bn] 10,534 % % Population [m] 381 % % GDP/capita [USD] 27,648 % % % of EU 25 % of US GDP [USD bn] 11,028 % Population [m] 455 % Eastern Europe, Malta and Cyprus: The biggest round of enlargement ever changes the face of Europe EU 25 (2023)* * 2023 data GDP growth rates of up to % . in CEE (average % . since 39。95) But: Enlargement is a big challenge for European Union to create wealth GDP/capita [USD] 24,237 % % of US 50 years of enlargement: Compared to the US, the EU has gained size at the expense of average wealth Today, Europe39。s % ., and Austria39。s GDP per capita is only about twothirds that of the US – in terms of total GDP, both economies are now parable EU vs. US* [US=100%] 1957 EU 6 1973 EU 9 1981 EU 10 1986 EU 12 1995 EU 15 2023 EU 25 GDP Inhabitants GDP per capita US = 100 * based on 2023 data Wealth gap: Ten years ago, the north of the European Union was rich and the south was poor South gained wealth in EU: From % of EU9 (1986) to % today 1995: Gap between north and south* 1995 * 2023 data ** EU 12 *** Portugal, Spain, Greece GDP [USD bn] Unemployment [%] Population [m] SOUTH*** NORTH** 1,161 9,373 62 319 RATIO 9:1 GDP per capita [USD] 18,726 29,383 3:2 2:3 5:1 7,429 27,620 4:1 Today, the gap is between east and west – GDP per capita in the EU 15 is four times higher than in EU 10 2023: Gap between east and west EU support will help EU 10 economic development to reach EU 15 wealth 2023 EU 10 EU 15 493 10,534 74 381 RATIO 21:1 4:5 5:1 GDP [USD bn] Unemployment [%] Population [m] GDP per capita [USD] EU 25 vs. US vs. Asia: Enlarged EU is a still powerful, but the slowest growing economic region in the world 3. Opportunity: Ten new states give the EU momentum to increase growth ECONOMIC POWER [GDP, USD bn] Comparative indicators 2023 POPULATION [m] WEALTH [GDP per capita, USD] GROWTH [avg. GDP growth 19992023, %] 10,988 290 11,028 455 US EU 25 ASIA* * Aggregated data for Japan, China, ASEAN 8,458 1,947 37,890 24,237 12,058 B. Challenges and opportunities of enlargement for EU 15 Eastward enlargement entails threats and opportunities for economies, panies, and governments Economies – Unit labor cost advantages in EU 10 challenge existing value creation structures in EU 15, but also offer momentum for structural change / innovation in EU 15 Companies – Competition in EU 15 as well as in EU 10 is increasing, but also new sales, investment, growth and relocation opportunities for EU 15 panies in Eastern Europe Governments – Existing institutional setups in EU 15 are challenged by lower taxes / contributions and higher flexibility in EU 10, but also momentum for political change Effects of enlargement on macroeconomic and microeconomic levels Macroeconomic threats: Pressure on EU 15 labor markets and petition for best institutional setup Low wagepetition / unemployment threats – Migration (up to m people from CEE will move to the EU 15) – Offshoring (. 830,000 people in CEE employed by German firms in 2023) Low tax / social contributions petition – Also: Less regulation (. IMD bureaucracy index: Estonia ranked 9th, UK ranked 33rd) Financial burden (EU budget) – Cost of enlargement (20232023): 49 bn EUR Differences: Countries with high degree of regulation, geographical proximity to CEE and contributors to EU budget are more affected 39,0 19,0 15,0 0,0 17,4 15,0 8,5 12,5 GER POL LIT EST Taxes Contributions CORPORATE TAXES [%] / SOCIAL CONTRIBUTIONS 2023 [% of GDP] Macroeconomic opportunities: Higher growth momentum