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【正文】 huge direct impact on current petitive environment ? The market is likely to be dominated by local players who are mostly not as strong in technology as MNC players but stronger in channel and sales capabilities, especially in the lowend segments ? MNC players are likely to succeed by being niche players and focusing on midtohighend segments ? Competition in product innovation is likely to focus on customization and localization 7 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator MARKET DEFINITION Supply (petitor) analysis Demand (customer) analysis Overall environment analysis Market definition Market assessment ? Market size and growth rate ? Key buying factors ? Distribution channel structure 8 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator ALTHOUGH aaaaaaOND LARGEST MARKET AMONG WHITE GOODS, REFRIGERATOR MARKET GROWTH WILL BE MODEST Source: GFK, SINOMR, Light Industry Information Center, aaaaaa, field interviews, McKinsey analysis 2 1 , 0 5 62 1 , 9 6 42 2 , 9 2 42 3 , 9 0 42 4 , 9 2 32 5 , 9 7 52023 Sidebyside Nonsidebyside refrigerators 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 CAGR (0005) Percent 21,130 22,060 23,050 24,070 25,140 26,260 Key drivers Rationale or assumptions ? Replacement ? Since the peration rate in China is high (~80%), particularly in major cities (100%), majority of the demand for nonsidebyside refrigerators will e from replacement purchase ? Ine growth ? Increase in average disposable ine drives demand for midtolarge capacity and midtohigh end refrigerators ? Average price ? Drops at 4% . 74 96 126 166 217 285 Refrigerator market size and growth RMB millions, percent Units sold (nonsidebyside) millions Average selling price (nonsidebyside) 1,840 1,910 1,990 2,070 2,160 2,250 9 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator THE MARKET IS VERY SATIATED Replacement is likely to be the key driver for future demand Source: China Statistics Yearbook Peration rate in China Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Whole China 103% 101% 87% 80% 10 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator MIDTOLARGE CAPACITY REFRIGERATORS HAVE BEEN CONSUMER39。 GfK 26 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator KELON AND MEILING’S FINANCIALS SHOW THAT MANUFACTURER39。 McKinsey analysis Specialty shores First tier city aaaaaaond tier city Third tier city Haier shopinshops Retailers in first tier cities ? Retailers in some large aaaaaaond tier cities ? Specialty store ? Haier shop in shops ? Retailers in aaaaaaond tier cities ? Specialty store ? Haier shop in shops ? Retailers in third tier cities ? Specialty stores Haier A/C sales Co. Haier sales branches in small aaaaaaond tier cities Wholesales in some third tier cities Haier sales center in first tier cities Haier sales center in some large aaaaaaond tier cities Haier sales centers in first and aaaaaaond tier cities Haier sales branches in big third tier cities East region North region West region South region 19 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator MARKET DEFINITION Supply (petitor) analysis Demand (customer) analysis Overall environment analysis Market definition Market assessment ? Market share by petitor ? Industry profitability or economics 20 aaaaaa010807BJrefrigerator WHILE THE MARKET IS GETTING MORE DOMINATED BY TOP PLAYERS COMBINED, MNC PLAYERS ARE GRADUALLY TAKING MORE SHARES * Rongsheng and Kelon bined Source: SINOMR, GfK, LIIC 100%= 1998 Others 1999 2023 aaaaaa Electrolux Meiling Kelon* Haier Siemens ? Haier and Kelon are the leading players. Howeve
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