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u r r e n t M a r k e t C a pTravelocity Expedia Priceline eBay Amazon $123B Webvan eBay Amazon All Other $ 020406080100120P e a k M a r k e t C a p C u r r e n t M a r k e t C a p020406080100120Peak Market Cap Current Market CapIS THE REVOLUTION OVER? July 28, 1794 THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS 1860 1890 1895 1925 FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK 120 100 80 40 60 20 0 1770 1780 1775 Index Workers per bushel of manufactured cotton England 177083 Price of the Model T touring car 190820 1910 1915 1920 1985 1990 1995 Price of CPU puting power $/ MIPS 198295 Lower processing costs ... … with increased throughput ... Fiber capacity Time 105 0 104 103 102 … and powerful work economics 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 n Value increases as the square of connections Profit Loss Value Cost 0 2v 6v 12v 20v 30v 42v 56v 72v 90v n(n1)v F+0 F+ 2c F+ 3c F+ 4c F+ 5c F+ 6c F+ 7c F+ 8c F+ 9c F+ 10c F+ nc Value, cost Connections Cost increases linearly with connections … lower storage costs ... $/MB Average HD size in PC at retail (GB) Harddrive size (GB) Cost ($/MB) 0 . 0 00 . 2 00 . 4 00 . 6 00 . 8 01 . 0 01995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2023 2023 2023 20230255075100LONG DISTANCE Wholesale (Network) ? Design/build ? Operations/maintenance ? Resale/interconnection Retail ? Sales/marketing ? Account management ? Billing Retail ? Sales/marketing ? Account management ? Bi