【正文】 l proportion of those. Moreover, there is no more details provided about the way the poll conducted. The sample of the poll may not have been representative of all Central Plaza store owners, asking only those store owners confronting decrease in business. The poll could have asked the store owners with the prior implication of the statistic about decreasing in business while increasing in popularity of skateboarding, which might mislead the respondents? opinions. And also there is no evidence provided to prove the conductor of the poll is impartial, who must be without interest in Central Plaza stores and, of course, not a skateboard user . , while the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing at the same time when the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically, the concrete connection between the decrease in their business with the increase of the popularity of skateboarding is not effectively made. Many other factors could have cause the decrease in their business, such as financial depression, anachronistic goods, even the constitution of the popularity in this city. Lower ine might lead to less shopping in Central Plaza stores and more youngsters in Central Plaza would result in decreasing in purchase while still some outdated goods showed. author mits a fallacy of hasty generalization about the increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. In the first place, there is no evidence to support that the litter and vandalism should be ascribed to skateboard users, while we cannot rule out the possibility that the increase of audience watching the skateboarding show causes more litter and vandalism. Even if skateboard users are responsible for the increase of litter and vandalism(Even if the dramatic increase of the litter and vandalism have been proved as a result of increase of skateboarding), whether skateboarding deserves to be prohibited(單音節(jié)才會雙寫 ) or policies are enacted to regulate their acts is still questionable. It is likely the later will be more effective. prediction made by author that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels once the skateboarding is prohibited lacks credibility. This prohibition may lead to be counterproductive because the exclusion of skateboarding users necessarily decrease the number of people in Central Plaza who might be potential consumers of stores there, thus reaching an opposite conclusion of decreasing in business of stores.(反證法 ) As it stands, the conclusion of prohibition of skateboarding and thus prediction of increase of stores? business in Central Plaza fail to convince us(are invalid and misleading) in the absence of responses to some critical questions. Before we accept this conclusion, the author has to provide more information that… to solidify the argument, following appeared in a letter from a homeowner to a friend. Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams Realty is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents(代理人 )。 寫一篇 response，在文章中，請審視在上文中已有或者還未陳述的一些假設(shè)。 提綱： The suggestion above that town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents by just limiting the number of rentals seems at first glance to be rational enough by the evidence provided in this argument that the increasing of population in Balmer Island and the plausible analogy between Balmer and Seaville. However, the argument mits/suffers from several critical fallacies, thus the remendation cannot be accepted unless some more details could be presented. First of all, as author?s implication in this argument, the increase of population to 100,000 during the summer months on Balmer Island will result in more accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. However, it is often not the case. Firstly, we wonder the accuracy of the statistics of population increasing to 100,000. Even if the number of population increasing is precise, there is still no sufficient evidence provided to convince us that the number 100,000 of population exceeds the limitation of the content of traffic, thus leading to more accidents which is mainly caused by increased mopeds.(Even if the number of population increasing is precise, which is, of course, an unwarranted assumption, it does not follow that the number 100,000 of population exceeds the limitation of the content of traffic, thus leading to more accidents which is mainly caused by increased mopeds. )We cannot rule out the possibility that the increasing of accidents cause by other traffic tools. Building on the implication above, the author remend that the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island?s moped rental panies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season, then they will attain 50 percent reduction of moped accidents annually. If the normally daily moped rentals outstrip 25, this limit policy involving rental panies will have significant effects on reducing the mopeds on road. If less than 25, this policy will do little, if anything, to decrease the mopeds on road, let alone the accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. Moreover, the implementing of the limitation only in summer season may not reach the target of 50 percent reduction annually in moped accidents. Because if the accidents occur mainly in other seasons except summer, the limit policy will have little impacts. Finally, the author makes an oversimplified analogy between the Balmer Island and the Seavill Island. As we know, even though the limitation policy proved effective in reducing the moped accidents in Seavill Island, there is no guarantee that it will work just as well for Balmer Island. (錯誤類比 ) Many factors should be taken account of such as physical terrain, the density of populati