【正文】 ease,Strike Insurrection Terrorism War,Force Majeure Events,Political Risks,Corruption Legal/regulatory irregularities License/Permit Concession Taxes Equityholding Currency inconvertibility Expatriation Preemption/priority Breach of contract Foreign worker limitation Law enforcement,Construction Facility site Equipment Technology Offtake Input Operation Utility Collateral Mineral reserves Reporting accuracy,Contractual Risks,Commercial Risks,Creeping Expropriation,Outright Expropriation,Natural Disaster,Expropriation Confiscation Nationalization,War amp。 Weak point of NPV is that it produces only absolute values. 凈現(xiàn)值方法的缺點在于，它只能得出絕對數(shù) $1 million investment and $1 thousand investment could, theoretically, produce the same NPV values. 一百萬美金和一千美金的投資，理論上可以得出同樣的凈減值。 IRR = Hurdle Rate: the project will produce the exact amount of cash to compromise investors’ cost of capital.項目正好可以產(chǎn)生足夠的現(xiàn)金來償還債務并向股東支付股利。,PI = =,Initial investment,PV of future cash flows,42,t = 4,CFt,(1 + r ),t,t = 0,CFt,(1 + r ),t,Σ,3,PI = =,Initial investment,PV of future cash flows,N,t = 1,CFt,CF0,Generally一般公式:,For the example cash flow projection例如現(xiàn)金流預算:,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,$100,$500,Comparing two projects with NPV and IRR 使用凈現(xiàn)值和內(nèi)部收益率方法來比較兩個項目,$1000,$100,$300,$400,$1000,$600,$400,$300,Project A,Project B,NPV: $78.82 IRR: 14.5% MIRR: 12.1% PI: 1.08,NPV: $49.18 IRR: 11.8% MIRR: 11.3% PI: 1.05,Cost of capital: 10%,Cost of capital: 10%,t,t,$200,$100,$300,$400,$100,$0,NPV,r %,5%,10%,15%,7.2%,11.8%,14.5%,$49.18,$78.82,A conflict between NPV and IRR when 凈現(xiàn)值和內(nèi)部收益率方法在交叉率之下產(chǎn)生分歧的情況: Project size differences exist項目規(guī)模存在差異 Timing differences exist時間存在差異 below crossover rate.,Take NPV rather than IRR. The logic is That NPV selects the project that adds most to shareholder’s wealth.應該選擇使用凈現(xiàn)值方法，因為凈現(xiàn)值方法能夠挑選出使股東收益最大化的項目,Project A,Project B,Crossover rate,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,NPV of FCF for the entire project life,NPV of FCF during the life of the debt,Annual debt service (principal and interest payments)年償債額（本金+利息）,Other Important Indicators其他重要指標,Debt service coverage ratio債務償付比率 Loan life coverage ratio債務期內(nèi)的債務償付比率 Project life coverage ratio項目期內(nèi)的債務償付比率 Debttoequity ratio權(quán)益負債率,=,=,=,=,Outstanding debt 總負債,Annual FCF （每年現(xiàn)金流）,Outstanding debt 總負債,Outstanding equity 所有者權(quán)益,Outstanding debt 總負債,?,or NPVP2 = CF0 + + + ???,Decreasing Debt/Equity Ratio遞減的權(quán)益負債率 For calculating NPV for a project within a company or for a company’s valuation, generally WACC (weighted average cost of capital) is used. 當計算一個公司的某個項目的凈現(xiàn)值或者計算一個公司的價值時，通常是用加權(quán)平均資金成本 In case of project finance the outstanding debt constantly declines and debt/equity ratio keeps changing throughout the project life. 在進行項目融資時，負債總是不斷降低的，在整個項目期間，負債權(quán)益率也始終保持變化。 Project cash flow現(xiàn)金流預測 A security interest in the cash flows generated by the project under longterm offtake agreements.有長期生產(chǎn)包銷協(xié)議的項目產(chǎn)生的擔保利益 Accomplished through a cash collateral account in which offtake purchaser pays all payments into the account established by the lenders.生產(chǎn)包銷采購方將所有款項都支付到由借款方設立的現(xiàn)金抵押賬戶中 Offshore accounts/escrow accounts離岸賬戶/代管帳戶 Ownership interests所有者權(quán)益 Pledge of ownership interests所有者權(quán)益抵押 Voting trust表決權(quán)信托 Negative pledges限制抵押 An agreement under which the project company will not create, directly or indirectly, any security interest, lien or encumbrance in its assets for the benefit of any other entity.在這種協(xié)議下，項目公司的資產(chǎn)不會產(chǎn)生直接或者間接的擔保利益，留置權(quán)，置押權(quán)被其他公司享受到。,5%,20%,15%,10%,5%,10%,15%,20%,Deviation from BaseCase Value (%),NPV ($),$ 0,0%,Unit sales price單價,Estimated values of cash flow factors現(xiàn)金流因素的估計量,Price growth rate 價格增長率,Sales quantity銷量,Asset beta,Utility price單價,Input price原材料價格,Input price growth 原材料價格上升,Operating costs運營成本,Construction costs 建造成本,NPV breakeven Analysis凈現(xiàn)值 盈虧平衡點分析,Original NPV Value初始凈現(xiàn)值,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,Sensitivity Analysis敏感性分析 III,Implication含義 Sensitivity analysis is a powerful technique to understand which factors need to be more accurately examined to reduce the entire credit risk.敏感性分析是一個強大的分析方法，可以幫助我們了解哪個因素需要更精確的分析檢查，以降低整個信貸風險 Weak Points缺點 Sensitivity analysis does not incorporate a concept of probability敏感性分析沒有包括可能性的概念 It can deal with only one cash flow for each analysis每個分析只能應用在一個現(xiàn)金流上 NPV Breakeven Analysis凈現(xiàn)值盈虧平衡點分析 NPV breakeven analysis examines a value of each factor which makes NPV exactly zero. 凈現(xiàn)值盈虧平衡點分析研究每個因素使凈現(xiàn)值正好等于零時后的值。 Implication含義 Scenario analysis is very useful technique to grasp the worst case situation of the project (by assuming 1.0 correlation).情景分析是一個非常有用的方法來找到項目的最差情況（假設相關系數(shù)為1.0）,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,Scenario Analysis情景分析 II,Simplified illustration of scenario analysis process 情景分析程序的圖例,Standard Deviation of NPV凈現(xiàn)值平均偏差,Expected NPV預計凈現(xiàn)值 (mean value平均值),Base, best, and worstcase scenarios of each cash flow 每個現(xiàn)金流的基本，最好，和最差情況,Slot in all base, best, and worstcase scenarios of each cash放入每個現(xiàn)金流的三種情況,Excel Sheet,NPV ($),$0,50%,40%,30%,Probability可能性 (%),FCF from best case scenario最好情況的現(xiàn)金流,FCF from base case scenario基本情況的現(xiàn)金流,FCF from worst case scenario最 差情況的現(xiàn)金流,Mean value平均值,20%,10%,Projected NPVs on the basis of the three scenarios三種假設下的凈現(xiàn)值,?,Monte Carlo Simulation蒙特卡羅模擬,Simplified illustration of montecarlo simulation process 蒙特卡羅模擬程序的圖例,Probability distribution of each cash flow and correlations between them每個現(xiàn)金流的可能性分布和他們的相關系數(shù),Randomly picking up scenarios 隨機選擇情景,Simplified illustration of probability distribution of NPVs凈現(xiàn)值的可能性分布的圖例,NPVs probability Distribution 凈現(xiàn)值的可能性分布,Standard Deviation of NPV凈現(xiàn)值的標準方差,Expected NPV預計凈現(xiàn)值 (mean value平均值),?,4. Credit Risk Management (Political Risks) 信貸風險管理（政治風險）,?,Mechanism of Political Risks for PF 項目融資的政治風險機制,A large standing out asset大量在外資產(chǎn),Potential foreign exploita