公司戰(zhàn)略和凈現值分析-預覽頁
【正文】 tudy finance Open circles represent decisions to be made. Filled circles represent receipt of information . a test score in this class. The lines leading away from the circles represent the alternatives. “C‖ “ A‖ “ B‖ “ F‖ “ D‖ McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 88 Stewart Pharmaceutical: Decision to Test ? Let’s move back to the first stage, where the decision boils down to the simple question: should we invest? ? The expected payoff evaluated at date 1 is: ???????? ?????????? ?? failuregiv en PayofffailureProb.successgiv en PayoffsucessProb.payo ffExpected ? ? ? ?,2$0$,3$ xpected ????? $,2$000,1$ ????NPV? The NPV evaluated at date 0 is: So we should test. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 811 Sensitivity Analysis %,7$ 000,7$000,6$Rev% ?????? We can see that NPV is very sensitive to changes in revenues. For example, a 14% drop in revenue leads to a 61% drop in NPV %,3$ ,3$,1$% ????? NPV? For every 1% drop in revenue we can expect roughly a % drop in NPV %% ??McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 () $ = +VC+FC+D $5, Variable Costs (3,000) Fixed Costs (1,800) Depreciation (400) Pretax profit = 247。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 817 Options ? Because corporations make decisions in a dynamic environment, they have options that should be considered in project valuation. ? The Option to Expand – Has value if demand turns out to be higher than expected. ? The Option to Abandon – Has value if demand turns out to be lower than expected. ? The Option to Delay – Has value if the underlying variables are changing with a favorable trend. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 821 The Option to Abandon: Example ???????? ?????????? ?? failuregiv en PayofffailureProb.successgiv en PayoffsucessProb.payo ffExpected ? ? ? ?$$ xpected ????? $)($300$ ?????tNPVTraditional NPV analysis would indicate rejection of the project. McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 2023 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 823 The Option to Abandon: Example ???????? ?????????? ?? failuregiv en PayofffailureProb.successgiv en PayoffsucessProb.payo ffExpected ? ? ? ?$$ xpected ????? $)($300$ ????tNPV? When we include the value of the option to abandon, the drilling project should proceed: McGrawHill/Irwin Copyright 169。 , March 17, 2023 雨中黃葉樹，燈下白頭人。 :39:5122:39:51March 17, 2023 1他鄉(xiāng)生白發(fā)，舊國見青山。 下午 10時 39分 51秒 下午 10時 39分 22:39: 沒有失敗，只有暫時停止成功！。 22:39:5122:39:5122:39Friday, March 17, 2023 1不知香積寺，數里入云峰。 2023年 3月 17日星期五 10時 39分 51秒 22:39:5117 March 2023 1空山新雨后，天氣晚來秋。 :39:5122:39Mar2317Mar23 1越是無能的人，越喜歡挑剔別人的錯兒。 2023年 3月 17日星期五 下午 10時 39分 51秒 22:39: 1最具挑戰(zhàn)性的挑戰(zhàn)莫過于提升
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