【正文】 著我國的外匯 儲備不斷增加，基礎(chǔ)貨幣投放結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生了改變，外匯占款已逐漸成為基礎(chǔ)貨幣投放的主要渠道。這些都旨在回收市 場多余流動性對物價(jià)沖擊及其所帶來的通貨膨脹預(yù)期。而當(dāng)國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢低迷或惡化，中央銀行采取放松銀根、降低利率的政策，熱錢又會轉(zhuǎn)換成外幣迅速撤離，使增加貨幣供應(yīng)量的政策操作效應(yīng)減弱。 而熱錢的隱蔽性使外匯指定銀行和中央銀行難以區(qū)分所結(jié)售外匯的性質(zhì)，因 而加大了央行運(yùn)用貨幣政策工具進(jìn)行調(diào)控的難度。然而，人民幣升值速度慢導(dǎo)致大量游資涌入，并形成人民幣升值預(yù)期→熱錢流入→新一輪升值預(yù)期→更多熱錢流入?的惡性循環(huán)。該政策也有其負(fù)面作用：一是對微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)扭曲。特別是，如果買入國債而無人跟隨的話，經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)將都集中在中央銀行身上。 中國的出口形勢 更加嚴(yán)峻 在拉動中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的“三駕馬車”中，出口占據(jù)著十分重要的位置。由于中國的出口產(chǎn)品附加值較低，貿(mào)易企業(yè)的匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理能力較差，為了促進(jìn)貿(mào)易穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，客觀上要求人民幣匯率穩(wěn)定。 2022 年 11 月，中國的出口增長達(dá)到 35%，貿(mào)易順差增加 229 億美元，徹底擺脫了金融危機(jī)的陰霾。按照常用的計(jì)算熱錢的方法，即 “ 在國家外匯儲備增加額中，減去貿(mào)易順差額和實(shí)際利用外國直接投資額 ” 來估算， 2022年我國熱錢流入規(guī)模超過 1400億美元， 2022年熱錢流入規(guī)模更是逐月增加。筆者運(yùn)用格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)以及 VAR 方差分解的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，次貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)前的 12 年，美國的貨幣數(shù)量增加與中國的廣義貨幣（ M2）增加之間具有顯著的因果關(guān)系。 隨著美元信用的進(jìn)一步放 大，美元將會貶值，導(dǎo)致中國持有的美國長期國債 未來面臨價(jià)格下降的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，我國外匯儲備將面臨較大縮水。 流動的統(tǒng)計(jì)監(jiān)測系統(tǒng) 專家估計(jì)，美國這次增發(fā)的 6000億美元中的 40%將通過各種渠道流入中國。在銀行高昂的放貸熱情下，外匯占款的增加又會引起經(jīng)濟(jì)中廣義貨幣（ M2）供應(yīng)的快速增長。相較于實(shí)際商品和服務(wù)價(jià)格的上漲，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格膨脹給經(jīng) 濟(jì)帶來的潛在威脅可能要大得多。目前熱錢加速流入我國，對我國貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性和實(shí)施效果都產(chǎn)生了較大影響，熱錢的流出 ,也同樣會使經(jīng)濟(jì)劇烈波動。此外，進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大外匯遠(yuǎn)期市場的規(guī)模、品種和交易范圍，緩解人民幣升值（或貶值）預(yù)期對匯率穩(wěn)定目標(biāo)的壓力，縮小即期匯率與遠(yuǎn)期匯率的匯差，從而降低國際熱錢的獲利空間。 盡管人民幣具有長期升值趨勢，但是短期內(nèi)我國應(yīng)該防止出現(xiàn)人民幣對美元 的單向大幅升值。 美聯(lián)儲推出的量化寬松貨幣政策，削弱了美元資產(chǎn)對短期國際資本的吸引力，在人民幣升值預(yù)期和中美利差的推動下，大量短期國際資本涌入中國。這都將使美元升值，并使部分套利交易平倉，導(dǎo)致中國外匯儲備增速放緩甚至下降，進(jìn)而影響到國內(nèi)的流動性。如考慮在必要時(shí)征收托賓稅，即對短期資本流動課稅；為防止熱錢混入經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目下，可規(guī)定外貿(mào)公司與上年業(yè)務(wù)量適度增長相應(yīng)的結(jié)匯的最高額度。 二次量化寬松貨幣政策反映了美國 “ 以鄰為壑 ” 的政策取向。 只要我國加強(qiáng)銀行、金融等方面的監(jiān)管和運(yùn)行，實(shí)施貨幣政策的改革，加強(qiáng)對國際資本流動的監(jiān)管：要加強(qiáng)對外匯貸款的控制并穩(wěn)定中國股市和樓市，給熱錢傳遞出合理預(yù)期。t agree with the disciplinary action your employer has taken against you your employer dismisses you and you think that you have been dismissed unfairly. For more informu, take advice from one of the anisations listed under Further help. Employment tribunals are less formal than some other courts, but it is still a legal process and you will need to give evidence under an oath or affirmation. Most people find making a claim to an employment tribunal challenging. If you are thinking about making a claim to an employment tribunal, you should get help straight away from one of the anisations listed under Further help. ation about dismissal and unfair dismissal, see Dismissal. You can make a claim to an employment tribunal, even if you haven39。s antiracism taskforce, is in London for the Football Association39。s 21 win. Michel Platini, president of European football39。 May be back in the past, to oneself the paranoid weird belief disillusionment, these days, my mind has been very messy, in my mind constantly. Always feel oneself should go to do something, or write something. Twenty years of life trajectory deeply shallow, suddenly feel something, do it. 一字開頭的年齡已經(jīng)到了尾聲。 The end of our life, and can meet many things really do? 而窮盡我們的一生，又能遇到多少事情是真正地非做不可？ During my childhood, think lucky money and new clothes are necessary for New Year, but as the advance of the age, will be more and more found that those things are optional。t want to give vent to out your inner voice can be in the high school children of the feelings in a period, but was eventually infarction when graduation party in the throat, later again stood on the pitch he has sweat profusely, looked at his thrown a basketball hoops, suddenly found himself has already can39。s time, your ideas are always special to clear. Want, want, line is clear, as if nothing could shake his. Also once seemed to be determined to do something, but more often is he backed out at last. Dislike his cowardice, finally found that there are a lot of love, there are a lot of miss, like shadow really have been doomed. Those who do, just green years oneself give oneself an arm injection, or is a selfrighteous spiritual. 一個(gè)人 的時(shí)候，自己的想法總是特別地清晰。那些曾經(jīng)所謂的非做不可，只是青蔥年華里自己給自己注射的一支強(qiáng)心劑，或者說，是自以為是的精神寄托罷了。 Have declared the end of the encounter that haven39。 instead of letting the world soften us, we let it drive us deeper into ourselves. We try to deflect the hurt and pain by pretending it doesn’t exist, but although we can try this all we want, in the end, we can’t hide from ourselves. We need to learn to open our hearts to the potentials of life and let the world soften us. 生活發(fā)生不幸時(shí)，我們常常會關(guān)上心門；世界不僅沒能慰藉我們，反倒使我們更加消沉。 Whenever a painful situation arises in your life, try to embrace it instead of running away or trying to mask the hurt. When the sadness strikes, take a deep breath and lean into it. When we run away from sadness that’s unfolding in our lives, it gets stronger and more real. We take an emotion that’s fleeting and make it a solid event, instead of something that passes through us. 當(dāng)生活中出現(xiàn)痛苦的事情時(shí)，別再逃跑或隱藏痛苦，試著擁抱它吧；當(dāng)悲傷來襲時(shí)，試著深呼吸，然后直面它。其實(shí)，我們有能力面對這些痛苦的感受，從中領(lǐng)悟到出路。與其一味顧慮重重，不如從局外人的角度看待決策之事。t. Baumgartner still will free fall at a speed that would cause you and me to pass out, and no parachute is guaranteed to work higher than 25,000 feet (7,620 meters). cause there [13]