【正文】 ect will produce more cash than the necessary amount to repay debt and deliver dividend to shareholders.該項目產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金足以償還債務(wù)并向股東分紅 MIRR is better than IRR because it allows more than one changes in plus and minus signs in cash flow projection. MIRR允許在加減的計算中存在一個以上的變化,Σ =,(1 + r ),N,CIFt (1 + r ),Modified Internal Rate of Return 修正內(nèi)部收益率(MIRR) II,(1 + MIRR),FV of cash in flows,t = 0,N,COFt,t,t = 0,N,(1 + MIRR),Σ,N t,PV of cash out flows =,N,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,Σ,(1 + r),t,Σ,Profitability Index 盈利能力指數(shù)(PI),Method方法 PI is another way of using NPV by dividing PV of future cash flow by initial investment.盈利能力指數(shù)是把將來的現(xiàn)金流的現(xiàn)值除以初始投資的方法 Implication PI tells the relative profitability of the project by indicating the value of the future cash flows par dollar of initial investment. When PI 1, the project should be accepted. When PI = 1, this basically means NPV = 0 and MIRR = Hurdle Rate.盈利能力指數(shù)顯示出一個項目相對于每一塊錢的初始投資可以獲得多少盈利。,Based on: Financial Management, Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt, 2008,?,(1 + r),Internal Rate of Return內(nèi)部收益率 (IRR),Method方法 IRR is defined as the discount rate that assumes NPV is equal to zero. 內(nèi)部收益率是能使項目的凈現(xiàn)值等于零時的折現(xiàn)率。 Civil Disturbances,Financial Risks,Market Risks,Civil Movements,Environment Human rights CSR Religion Nationalism Globalization,Interest rate Exchange rate Inflation rate Labor cost Product market Input market Salvage cost,Project Finance Credit Risks Overview,?,火災 水災 地震 火山 疾病,罷工 暴動 恐怖活動 戰(zhàn)爭,不可抗力,政治風險,腐敗 法律/法規(guī) 不合法 專利權(quán)/許可權(quán) 特許權(quán) 稅賦 持股經(jīng)營 貨幣不可轉(zhuǎn)換 派遣 優(yōu)先購買權(quán)/優(yōu)先權(quán) 合同違約 外籍員工限制 執(zhí)法,建造 場地 設(shè)備 技術(shù) 生產(chǎn)包銷協(xié)議 投入 運營 動力 抵押 礦產(chǎn)儲量 報告的正確性,合同風險,商業(yè)風險,間接征用,征用,自然災害,征用 沒收 國有化,戰(zhàn)爭及 民間干擾,金融風險,市場風險,利率 匯率 通貨膨脹率 人工成本 產(chǎn)品市場 產(chǎn)出市場 回收成本,項目融資的信貸風險概況,民間運動,環(huán)境 人權(quán) 企業(yè)社會責任 宗教 民族主義 全球化,?,3. Credit Risk Management信貸風險管理 (Financial Risks金融風險),?,3.1 Cash Flow Analysis I 現(xiàn)金流分析I (NPV and IRR) （凈現(xiàn)值法及內(nèi)部收益率）,?,(1 + r ),(1 + r ),Net Present Value凈現(xiàn)值 (NPV) I,Year年,,,Free cash flow,Cash out flow 付出現(xiàn)金流,Financial Agreement (Closing)融資合同,Sank Costs 沉沒 成本,t = 0,t = 1,t = 2,t = 5,t = 10,t = 20,t = 30,t = 40,Present Value現(xiàn)值,Present value of cash out flow at t=2 第2年付出現(xiàn)金的現(xiàn)值,Present value of cash in flow at t=10 第10年收到現(xiàn)金的現(xiàn)值,PV =, CF2,2,PV =,CF10,10,Example例,Sank cost does not affect cash flow analysis because it is an existing fact regardless of the investment decision (it is not incremental costs). 沉沒成本不影響現(xiàn)金流分析， 無論投資決策是否變化，它都 不會變動（它不是增量成本）,Salvage Value殘值,?,(1 + r),CF10,(1 + r ),(1 + r ), CF2,= CF0 + + + ??? + + ??? +, CF1,(1 + r ),(1 + r),(1 + r),CF42,(1 + r ),?,Net Present Value凈現(xiàn)值 (NPV) II,1,2,10,= Σ,42,t = 0,CFt,t,Present value of cash out flow at t=2 第2年現(xiàn)金支出的現(xiàn)值,Present value of cash in flow at t=10 第10年現(xiàn)金流入的現(xiàn)值,PV2 =, CF2,2,PV10 =,CF10,10,?,?,?,?,?,?,PV0 = CF0,Present value of cash out flow at t=0 0年支出現(xiàn)金的現(xiàn)值,Negative value because they are cash out flow 負數(shù)，因為他們是現(xiàn)金流出,Positive value because they are cash in flow 正數(shù)，因為他們是現(xiàn)金流入,Net of all present value of cash out flow and all present value of cash in flow is: 所有現(xiàn)金流入的現(xiàn)值減去所有現(xiàn)金流出的現(xiàn)值,NPV = PV0 + PV1 + PV2 + PV3 + ??? + PV42,42,As long as this value is positive, the project will produce more cash than necessary to repay debt and dividend. 只要凈現(xiàn)值是正數(shù)，這個項目帶來的現(xiàn)金收入就能超過償 還的借款和股利所需要的現(xiàn)金,?,Net Present Value 凈現(xiàn)值(NPV) III,Implication 含義 Positive NPV凈現(xiàn)值為正數(shù): the project will generate more cash than the necessary amount to repay debt to banks and deliver dividend to shareholders, the excess cash solely to the project’s shareholders. 該項目產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金將超過用于償還銀行債務(wù)及向股東支付股利的現(xiàn)金，超過部分的現(xiàn)金僅僅屬于該項目的股東。項目公司是被一個或者一些發(fā)起人擁有的，而且他的負債對資產(chǎn)比率很高。 Non or limitedrecourse沒有資源或資源有限 An independent SPE is created to hold the project assets and to integrate all legal contracts in an effective and efficient manner for funding, building and operating a single purpose project. SPE is owned by one or a few sponsors and it is highly leveraged.一個獨立的項目公司建立的目的就是為了持有項目資產(chǎn)，集中所有法律合同進行有效和有效率的融資，建立和經(jīng)營一個單一目的的項目。 Deterrent against strategic behavior by the third parties可以威懾第三方的戰(zhàn)略行動 Sponsor can involve the critical parties for the project, including the public sector, as shareholders to prevent future conflict.發(fā)起人可以把重要的合作方，例如公共部門納入項目中，例如作為項目的股東，這樣可以防止將來的沖突 By involving international banks and multilateral agencies whose interest is solely in cashflow maximization by the project, the sponsor may prevent harmful action by the host government.發(fā)起人可以把國際銀行，國際代理納入項目公司，他們的利益會由項目而達到最大化，這樣發(fā)起人就有可能防止當?shù)卣挠泻π袨?Based on: The Economic Motivations for Using Project Finance, Benjamin C. Esty, 2003,?,PF vs. Corporate Finance 項目融資 vs. 公司金融,Project Finance項目融資 Limited or nonrecourse資源有限或者沒有資源 Simple cashflow structure produced from one independent waste asset由單一資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生的單一現(xiàn)金流結(jié)構(gòu) Highleverage at beginning, but getting lower toward the end of the debt repayment初期較高的財務(wù)杠桿， 但在債務(wù)償付之后逐降低 Relatively a few layers of debt and equity structure (simple ownership)相對較少的債務(wù)和權(quán)益結(jié)構(gòu)（單一所有權(quán)） Applied to projects attaining a scale of economy適用于達到規(guī)模經(jīng)濟的項目,Corporate Finance公司金融 Full recourse充足資源 Complicated cashflow structure produced from a set of various, replaceable profit making projects由一系列可替代的盈利項目產(chǎn)生的復雜的現(xiàn)金流結(jié)構(gòu) Leverage depends on a company’s target capital structure財務(wù)杠桿取決于公司的目標資本結(jié)構(gòu) Various layers of debt and equity structure (complicated ownership)較多層次的債券和權(quán)益結(jié)構(gòu)（復雜的所有權(quán)） Applied to all profit making business types適用于所有盈利企業(yè)類型,?,Typical Structure of Conventional PF 典型的傳統(tǒng)項目融資結(jié)構(gòu),Offtake purchaser 包銷商,Input supplier 投入供應商,Operator 運營商,Project company 項目公司 (SPE),Contractors 承包商,Lenders 借款人,Sponsors 發(fā)起人,Central/local Government 中央/地方政府,Concession Authority 特許權(quán)許可,Insurers 保險公司,Shareholders Agreement 股東協(xié)議,Equity所有者權(quán)益,Loan Agreement借款合同,Debt借款,Construction Agreement 建造合同,License/permit專利權(quán)/許可權(quán),Concession Agreement特許權(quán)合同,Insurance保險,Offtake agreement 包銷協(xié)議,Supply agreement 供應合同,Operation/maintenance Agreement 運營/維護合同,Power/utility電力/動力,Multilateral/bilateral agencies 多方/雙方代理,Equipment suppliers 設(shè)備供應商,?,2. Credit Risks in Project Finance 項目融資中的信貸風險,?,Fire Flooding Earthquake Volcano Dis